1. Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029
Challenges & Opportunities:
The Future of Nano & Bio Technologies
Chris Phoenix

2. Overview
Important time periods
Feynman to mid-80's
1986 to 2007
2008 to 2022
2022 to 2029
Important technologies
Nanoscale technologies
Molecular manufacturing
Other significant technologies

3. Before “Nanotechnology”
Richard Feynman, 1959:
“There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom”
Colloids
Electron microscopes
Von Neumann
Early 80's: Drexler publishes peer-reviewed articles

4. Mid 1980's: Nanotechnology Begins
Drexler publishes Engines of Creation
Foresight Institute founded
“Grey goo” worries begin
“Universal assembler,” “disassembler”
“Nanotechnology”

5. Early Molecular Manufacturing
Based on biology
Small manufacturing systems
Organic-like chemistry
High performance
Large potential impact
Attracted transhumanists, cryonicists, etc.

6. Molecular Manufacturing's Power
Scaling laws
Low friction and wear
General-purpose manufacturing
Highly reliable operation
High material strength
Inexpensive material (carbon)

7. Skepticism
How can a machine reproduce?
Won't quantum uncertainty...?
How can you power it?
How can you control it?
Chemistry is too unreliable!

8. Nanomedicine
Build with molecules --> meet cells at their own level.
Small and numerous --> whole-body interventions
Respirocytes, etc.
1999: Freitas --> Nanomedicine I
: Vasculoid

9. Vasculoid: Replace Blood
150 trillion plates lining blood vessels
166 T boxes transport molecules and cells inside hollow tube
Avoid bleeding, poisons, metastasized cancer, etc.
Extremely aggressive but appears possible
111 pages long, 587 references

10. Drexler publishes Nanosystems
1990's: Concepts Mature
Drexler publishes Nanosystems
Lots of physics analysis
Diamondoid
Nanofactories
Largely ignored outside community
Other “nanotechnology”
Skepticism (e.g. SciAm)

11. Physics of Nanosystems
Scaling Laws
Power density ~ L^-1
Component density ~ L^-3
Operation frequency ~ L^-1
Relative throughput ~ L^-4
Atom-scale Physics
Superlubricity
Discrete dimensions
Quantum phenomena

12. 2000: Nanotech Goes Mainstream
National Nanotechnology Initiative
$1B per year for nanotech
Nanotech defined as anything small and interesting
“Why The Future Doesn't Need Us”
Stated that one “oops” could destroy the world with grey goo
Strong incentive to marginalize molecular manufacturing

13. Nanoscale Technologies
Build small objects and structures
Use big machines
Limited product range
Diverse but limited applications
Lots of cool physics tricks
Not just one technology; not even a family
Materials, not products

14.
Nanoscale tech advances in many directions
Nanoparticle concerns
CRN founded Dec. 2002
Drexler/Smalley debate
NMAB report
Opposition to MM slowly fades

15. Nanoscale tech in the stone age
Unlock natural properties
Access the small stuff indirectly
Very sophisticated techniques needed
Useful and complex products
Limited flexibility
Ask a flint knapper to make a gear...
(Ask a flint knapper what good a gear is...)

16. (continued)
Nanofactory architecture matures
Foresight/Battelle Productive Nanosystems Roadmap
NanoRex
Zyvex
Nanofactory Collaboration
Ideas Factory

17. Nanofactory Architecture
“Design of a Primitive Nanofactory”
Chris Phoenix, Oct. 2003, JETpress
Demonstrate that nanofactories could be bootstrapped quickly
Physical architecture, power, redundancy, product specification and capabilities, bootstrapping time, etc., etc.
73 pages

18. Burch/Drexler Nanofactory
“Productive Nanosystems: From Molecules To Superproducts”
Video released July 2005
Introduced planar assembly
Obsoleted about ¼ of Primitive Nanofactory paper

19. NIAC Contract
With Tee Toth-Fejel
Developed bootstrapping concepts
Fleshed out planar-assembly nanofactory architecture
Showed one of many ways to develop exponential manufacturing

20. “Tattoo Needle” architecture

21. Recent tech advances
Oyabu: Pick and place silicon atoms
Schafmeister: rigid biopolymer
Rothemund: DNA staples
Freitas, Merkle, Drexler, Allis: mechanosynthesis studies
Seeman: DNA building DNA

22. Nanoscale tech continues
Nanoscale tech continues
Better computers
Medicine(!)
Materials
Sensors
Molecular manufacturing continues
More scanning probe chemistry
Better designs
More mainstream acceptance

23.
Diamond fabrication by SPM
Push for a nanofactory (may happen earlier)
Nanoscale science matures
Nanoscale tech keeps growing, needs better manufacturing
Recognition of MM implications??
Nanofactory??

24. General-purpose nanotech manufacturing accelerates other technologies
General-purpose nanotech manufacturing accelerates other technologies
Medicine
Brain/machine interface
Spaceflight
Computers/networks/sensors
Planet-scale engineering(?)

25. Bootstrapping Options
Direct diamond synthesis (Freitas)
Biopolymer machines (Drexler)
Molecular building blocks (Toth-Fejel)
Top-down manufacturing (Hall)
Other covalent solids

26. Development Cost of MM
In 1980's, tens or hundreds of $B
In 1990's, a few $B
In 2000's, several hundred $M
In 2010's, tens of $M
In 2020's, a few $M
(This is for a ten-year program)
Would have been worth it in 1980!

27. Conclusion
Molecular manufacturing will be developed soon
This is where nanotechnology is going
It will be more powerful, and more impactful, than we can easily imagine