11Physics of Nanosystems Scaling LawsPower density ~ L^-1Component density ~ L^-3Operation frequency ~ L^-1Relative throughput ~ L^-4Atom-scale PhysicsSuperlubricityDiscrete dimensionsQuantum phenomena
122000: Nanotech Goes Mainstream National Nanotechnology Initiative$1B per year for nanotechNanotech defined as anything small and interesting“Why The Future Doesn't Need Us”Stated that one “oops” could destroy the world with grey gooStrong incentive to marginalize molecular manufacturing
13Nanoscale Technologies Build small objects and structuresUse big machinesLimited product rangeDiverse but limited applicationsLots of cool physics tricksNot just one technology; not even a familyMaterials, not products
14Nanoscale tech advances in many directionsNanoparticle concernsCRN founded Dec. 2002Drexler/Smalley debateNMAB reportOpposition to MM slowly fades
15Nanoscale tech in the stone age Unlock natural propertiesAccess the small stuff indirectlyVery sophisticated techniques neededUseful and complex productsLimited flexibilityAsk a flint knapper to make a gear...(Ask a flint knapper what good a gear is...)
17Nanofactory Architecture “Design of a Primitive Nanofactory”Chris Phoenix, Oct. 2003, JETpressDemonstrate that nanofactories could be bootstrapped quicklyPhysical architecture, power, redundancy, product specification and capabilities, bootstrapping time, etc., etc.73 pages
18Burch/Drexler Nanofactory “Productive Nanosystems: From Molecules To Superproducts”Video released July 2005Introduced planar assemblyObsoleted about ¼ of Primitive Nanofactory paper
19NIAC ContractWith Tee Toth-FejelDeveloped bootstrapping conceptsFleshed out planar-assembly nanofactory architectureShowed one of many ways to develop exponential manufacturing
23Diamond fabrication by SPMPush for a nanofactory (may happen earlier)Nanoscale science maturesNanoscale tech keeps growing, needs better manufacturingRecognition of MM implications??Nanofactory??
24General-purpose nanotech manufacturing accelerates other technologies General-purpose nanotech manufacturing accelerates other technologiesMedicineBrain/machine interfaceSpaceflightComputers/networks/sensorsPlanet-scale engineering(?)
25Bootstrapping Options Direct diamond synthesis (Freitas)Biopolymer machines (Drexler)Molecular building blocks (Toth-Fejel)Top-down manufacturing (Hall)Other covalent solids
26Development Cost of MMIn 1980's, tens or hundreds of $BIn 1990's, a few $BIn 2000's, several hundred $MIn 2010's, tens of $MIn 2020's, a few $M(This is for a ten-year program)Would have been worth it in 1980!
27ConclusionMolecular manufacturing will be developed soonThis is where nanotechnology is goingIt will be more powerful, and more impactful, than we can easily imagine