1. Jim Dunn Ag Economist Pennsylvania State University
Feed Outlook
Jim Dunn
Ag Economist
Pennsylvania State University

2. Sources of Information USDA

3. What these are called
USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (ESMIS)
Field Crops
Outlooks, Yearbooks, and Estimates
Feed Outlook
WASDE

4. Other useful links Oil Crops Outlook
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
Milk Production
Feed grains database
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: Tables

5. Issues for Feed Economy
Large 2015 & 2016 US crops
Brazil & Argentina
Falling land prices
Expensive dollar
Chinese economy
Russian Embargo
Weather

6. Ethanol Demand falling because of better fuel economy
Not the issue it was in past
Smaller portion of corn crop
Talk of dropping mandate
In election Rep King from Iowa wasn’t pushing it
World opposition to fuel from food building

7. Corn Notes Chinese economy slumping
China trying to increase hog production
South American crop will be okay

9. Corn Supply Bil. Bu. Year Beg stocks Production Supply 2012/13 0.99
10.78
11.93
2013/14
0.82
13.92
14.78
2014/15
1.23
14.22
15.48
2015/16
1.73
13.60
15.37
2016/17
1.74
15.15
16.94
Source: USDA

10. Corn Usage bil. bu Year Feed Food Fuel Exports Total 2012/13 4.33 1.40
4.64
0.73
11.18
2013/14
5.03
1.37
5.13
1.92
13.45
2014/15
5.32
1.36
5.21
1.73
13.48
2015/16
5.30
1.89
13.57
2016/17
5.60
1.43
5.33
2.26
14.58
Source: USDA

11. Corn Usage Crop 2004 2010 2015 2016 Feed 57.8% 36.7% 39.1% 38.4% Food
12.8%
10.8%
10.1%
9.4%
Exports
17.1%
14.2%
12.5%
16.1%
Ethanol
12.4%
38.5%
38.3%
36.2%

13. Other mostly Russia and Ukraine

14. Corn Futures Price (CBOT)
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16. Russian Corn Exports

17. Ukrainian Corn Exports

18. Soybean Notes
South American crop is good – up 4% from last year, esp. Brazil
China may be buying again
World supply is up 8%
US exports will probably struggle

21. Soybean Supply mil.bu. Year Carry-in Production Total 2012 169 3042
3252
2013
141
3358
3478
2014 92
3969
4094
2015
191
3926
4140
2016
197
4307
4533

22. Soybean Usage Year Crush Exports Seed Total 2012 1689 1317 105 3111
2013
1734
1638
106
3478
2014
1873
1843
145
3862
2015
1886
1936
122
3944
2016
1930
2050
133
4113

23. Soybean Carryout & Price
Year
Carryout
mil. bu.
Price
Days Use of carryout
2012
141
$14.40 16
2013 92
$13.00
9.5
2014
191
$10.10
19.5
2015
197
$8.80
45.1
2016
420
9.50
36.8

25. Soybean Futures

26. Corn futures prices 2/7/17 Month Price (cts/bu.) March 17 368 May 17
376
July 17
383
Sept 17
390
Dec 17
396

29. China
Meat consumption grew nearly ten-fold to 71 million metric tons since 1975
Just announced it is scaling back its annual grain production targets to put a greater emphasis on quality rather than quantity
Big effect on imports of feed and animal products – already the big player
Chinese per capita meat consumption has doubled since 1992 to  52.5 kilograms (114 lbs)
US at about 211 lbs.

30. Soybean futures prices 2/7/17
Month
Price (cts/bu.)
March 17
1043
May 17
1053
July 17
1061
Sept 17
1038
Nov 17
1019

34. Cattle Market Prices high through most of 2017
In November, average retail choice-beef prices were a near record $6.31/lb. – demand lower

35. Hog notes Hog market struggling Grain prices low
Dollar is hurting exports
Pressure about practices - animal rights
Modern facilities better than traditional in my view

36. Poultry Notes Eggs and Broilers cheapest form of protein
Margins better
Exports important and weakness in world economy affects price

47. Concluding Questions Lower feed prices help animal agriculture
Will feed prices stay low?
Corn & soybean meal will
Hay depends on our weather
Will we really keep cutting per capita meat consumption?