1. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Evaluation of B[a]P pollution in the EMEP region: temporal trends and spatial variability Alexey Gusev, Olga Rozovskaya, Victor Shatalov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

2. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016  B[a]P emissions have increased in the past decade as a result of an increase of emissions from domestic combustion (Guerreiro et al., 2015, 2016; EMEP Status Report, 2015)  In 2013 about half of B[a]P monitoring stations (mostly urban/suburban) in Europe continued measuring air concentrations above the EU target level 1 ng/m 3 (EEA report, 2015)  D omestic combustion of wood/coal for heating is linked to adverse health effects, especially in urban and sub-urban areas where emissions and population densities tend to be higher (Guerreiro et al., 2016) B[a]P pollution in the EMEP region: background information

3. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Long-term trends of B[a]P pollution in the EMEP countries (1990-2012) Modelled B[a]P air concentrations (EMEP) Annual B[a]P emissions (EMEP)  B[a]P emissions and air concentrations decreased from 1990 to 2001 by ~30% Reduction 36% Reduction 31%  No reduction of emissions and air concentrations is seen from 2002 to 2012 No reduction  Some of the EMEP countries are characterized by slight increase of B[a]P concentrations in period 2005-2012 Analysis of trends 0 200 400 600 800 199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012 B[a]P emissions, t/y Value Trend 0 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012 B[a]P in air, ng/m 3 Value Trend

4. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Countries with stable or increasing B[a]P concentrations in 2005-2014 (modelled data) Moldova114% United Kingdom56% Spain53% Croatia38% Iceland24% Poland13% Germany8% Italy6% Belarus5% Portugal5% Slovakia 5% Bulgaria3% Long-term trends of B[a]P pollution in the EMEP countries (1990-2014) Increase of B[a]P emissions from 2005 to 2014 (official data)

5. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Modelled B[a]P air concentrations Annual B[a]P emissions Belgium Long-term trends of B[a]P pollution in the EMEP countries (1990-2014) Poland 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014 Emissions, t/y 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014 B[a]P in air, ng/m 3 ValueTrend Poland 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014 Emissions, t/y B[a]P in air, ng/m 3 Belgium 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014 ValueTrend

6. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Assessment of B[a]P pollution in EMEP countries Modelled annual mean B[a]P air concentrations Modelling results reasonably agree with measurements of B[a]P concentrations at rural/background stations (2013-2014) Model vs. rural/background sites (EMEP, AirBase) MOD = 0.73 OBS R corr = 0.6 F2 = 51% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 0.010.1110100 Observed, ng/m 3 Modelled, ng/m 3

7. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Assessment of B[a]P pollution in EMEP countries Modelled annual mean B[a]P air concentrations (range: <0.1 – 6 ng/m 3 ) Measurements of B[a]P concentrations at background urban/suburban sites (range: <0.1 – 16 ng/m 3 ) Modelling results vs. measurements of B[a]P air concentrations at background urban and suburban stations (EEA Airbase, 2013)

8. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Model vs. background urban/suburban sites (AirBase) MOD = 0.17 OBS R corr = 0.6 F2 = 20% Underestimation of B[a]P pollution in urban areas Modelling results provide smoothed levels of concentrations and do not capture sharp gradients observed in urban areas 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 0.010.1110100 Observed, ng/m 3 Modelled, ng/m 3 Modelled annual mean B[a]P air concentrations

9. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 A study of B[a]P pollution in urban areas Objectives:  Estimate B[a]P pollution levels in urban areas including their spatial distribution to provide information for exposure studies  Analyze contributions of various emission sources and major source categories to B[a]P air concentrations Methods:  Nested modelling of B[a]P pollution levels for the area in Central Europe with elevated B[a]P air concentrations (the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia,…)  Regression analysis to determine relationship between measured urban concentrations and modelling results, emissions, meteorological variables Further activity:  Refinement of the approach and application for other EMEP countries in co-operation with national experts

10. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Assessment of B[a]P with fine resolution EMEP domain, 50 x 50 km 2 Annual mean modelled B[a]P air concentrations for 2013 Fine resolution domain, 5 x 5 km 2 Measurements selected for the analysis:  data of background urban/suburban sites from EEA/Airbase (23 sites)  fulfilling criteria of temporal coverage (>75%) Selected modelling domains with coarse and fine spatial resolution Ostrava Prague

11. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Assessment of B[a]P with fine resolution EMEP domain, 50 x 50 km 2 Annual mean modelled B[a]P air concentrations for 2013 Measurements selected for the analysis:  data of background urban/suburban sites from EEA/Airbase (23 sites)  fulfilling criteria of temporal coverage (>75%) Selected modelling domains with coarse and fine spatial resolution domain Fine resolution domain, 5 x 5 km 2

12. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Modelling results for background urban/suburban sites Modelling results vs. EEA/AirBase measurements for 2013  Modelling results indicate B[a]P concentrations near or above 1 ng/m 3 for some of the sites  In general, measured concentrations are underpredicted by the model especially in the Ostrava region Modelled B[a]P concentrations (5x5 km 2 ) Modelled vs measured concentrations for Czech Republic

13. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Regression model to estimate urban concentrations Multi-parameter regression analysis to determine relationship between observed urban/suburban concentrations, modelling results and additional parameters: j- urban/suburban monitoring site j C obs,j - B(a)P air concentrations observed at site j Var j - variability of modelled concentrations near corresponding grid cell C mod,j - modelled B(a)P concentration in the corresponding grid cell E ind, E res, E rot - emissions of B(a)P from major source categories W av,j - average wind speed in the grid cell w j - residual component a, b ind, b res, b rot - multiple-regression parameters. Variability of modelled B(a)P concentrations near the corresponding grid cell is estimated using 9-gridcell moving matrix: Var j = C max / C min

14. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Preliminary results of regression analysis ModelledRegression RelBias 60%0.01% NRMSE 85%41% F2 39%96% Corr 0.520.79 Application of regression model permits to obtain generally good agreement with measurements in urban areas of the Czech Republic Regression model results vs. EEA/AirBase measurements for 2013 (background urban/suburban sites) Regression model results applied for urban areas

15. ng/m 3 Spatial distribution of B[a]P concentrations Estimation of spatial distribution of B[a]P concentrations in urban areas based on regression model results for selected monitoring sites Combined map of B[a]P air concentrations ng/m 3 Regression model results for urban areas EMEP model results

16. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Combined map of modelled B[a]P air concentrations (5x5 km 2 ) and regression model results for 2013 Source: Graphic Yearbook for 2013 (CHMI report) Estimates of B[a]P pollution of the Czech Republic Estimated B[a]P concentrations for urban areas in comparison with data published by Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) ng / m 3

17. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Transboundary transport of B[a]P between EMEP countries Long range transport from external (non-CZ) emission sources can significantly contribute to the pollution of areas near the country borders Non-CZ sources: 30-60% Contribution of non-CZ emission sources to B[a]P air concentrations Regression model results vs. EEA/AirBase measurements for 2013 Poland Germany Austria Slovakia

18. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Implications for further activity  Exceedances of EU target value (1 ng/m 3 ) in recent years were indicated for Italy, Poland, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Hungary, … (e.g. Gianelle et al, 2013; Kozielska et al., 2015; Csanádi et al., 2015; …)  Available national measurements of the EECCA countries (e.g. Russian Federation) indicate exceedances of the 1 ng/m 3 limit for B[a]P in urban areas  WHO estimated reference level for B[a]P 0.12 ng/m 3 is significantly lower than EU target value (EEA SOER, 2015)  About 88% of European population lives in areas exceeded WHO estimated reference level (ETC/ACM, 2014 )

19. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2016 Final remarks  B[a]P air concentrations in the EMEP countries decreased from 1990 to 2001, however in recent decade the decline of concentrations is almost leveled off or changed to increase  According to measurements/modeling data B[a]P pollution levels in some of the EMEP countries are still significant and exceed air quality standards in areas with high population density  To provide information for exposure studies combined approach, based on fine resolution modeling and multiple regression analysis, could be applied for evaluation of B[a]P pollution levels in ‘‘hot spots’’ of EMEP domain.