1. © Crown copyright Met Office Vertical structure and diabatic processess of MJO: Initial results from the 2-day hindcasts Prince Xavier, Jon Petch N. Klingaman 2, S. Woolnough 2, X. Jiang 3, D. Waliser 3 and the contributors 2 NCAS-Climate, U. Reading; 3 JPL, NASA 4th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project Objectives Characterize observed and modelled temperature, moisture, diabatic heating and cloud structures during the MJO life cycle. Evaluate the ability of current models to hindcast MJO events, and characterize the evolution of the “error” growth in the profiles of moistening, diabatic heating, etc. Carry out detailed analysis of models physical tendencies at the early stages of the forecast when dynamics is still (somewhat) constrained by the analysis. provide guidance to model development/improvement efforts develop a detailed process model study and highlight observational requirements (in-situ, airborne, satellite)*

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Experimental framework

4. © Crown copyright Met Office Experiment 2: 2-day hindcasts Characterize, compare and evaluate the heating, moistening and momentum with detailed time step information over large regions influenced by the MJO while dynamics and thermodynamics are close to observed/analysis.

5. © Crown copyright Met Office Experiment 2: 2-day hindcasts 48 hours forecasts initialised everyday at 00Z from the ECMWF-YOTC analysis Case 1): Oct. 20, 2009-Nov. 10, 2009 Case 2): Dec. 20, 2009-Jan. 10, 2010

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Participating models

7. © Crown copyright Met Office Selection of time window for analysis Total precipitation averaged over the domain as a function of forecast lead time. 12-36 hrs

8. © Crown copyright Met Office T and q (500 hPa) forecast evolution 12-36 hrs

9. © Crown copyright Met Office Precipitation composites SuppressedTransitionConvective

10. © Crown copyright Met Office Precipitation evolution for case 1 suppressed transition convective

11. © Crown copyright Met Office Evolution of RH

12. © Crown copyright Met Office T, q and RH biases during the convective phase Good agreement between models below 600 hPa, but large spread for T biases above 600 hPa

13. © Crown copyright Met Office Moisture tendencies

14. © Crown copyright Met Office Temperature tendencies

15. © Crown copyright Met Office Cloud properties (convective phase)

16. © Crown copyright Met Office Summary First time a GASS framework has been explicitly used for MJO studies involves a wider community to understand MJO biases. A rich database of detailed diagnostics will soon be available for use by the community Linking performance of models across the 3 experiments will be critical Few specific findings from this initial analysis: At 12-36 hours, global models capture the MJO transitioning but there are still notable differences e.g. RH transitions large differences between models physical tendencies – especially in the moisture Radiative heating is very different among models above 600 hPa Large spread in cloud liquid and cloud ice profiles probably driving heating differences

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Timeline going forward Dec 2012 : Deadline for submission of data for inclusion in papers – still accept data for later analysis 3-5 June 2013: A GASS/MJO TF MEETING ON THE HEATING AND MOISTENING PROCESSES OF MJO Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) Spring 2013: Release of CINDY/DYNAMO case Jun 2013 : Draft of papers on each component & release of data Sep 2013 : Submission of papers on each component Fall 2013 : Summary paper and recommendation for high priority process studies Opportunities to be involved Contact: prince.xavier@metoffice.gov.uk

18. © Crown copyright Met Office Thank you!

19. © Crown copyright Met Office Time-step level variability (conv phase) precip (t) vs prec (t+1)

20. © Crown copyright Met Office Time-step variations of dT (conv)