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© Crown copyright Met Office Convection plans Alison Stirling
© Crown copyright Met Office Priorities for convection parametrization Main Systematic Errors: Diurnal cycle MJO Monsoons AEW coupling Feedback with `large-scale environment Transient response to boundary layer
© Crown copyright Met Office Interaction with large scale Ascent generates CAPE Heating generates ascent Depth and amplitude of convective response key to improving monsoon, MJO, AEW coupling
© Crown copyright Met Office Interaction with large scale progress and further work: UM high resolution convection simulations over a large domain allows circulations resulting from convection to develop. Increased entrainment improves coupling between convection and large-scale (Klingaman et al 2013) …but it cant be high all the time… Introduce physically realistic entrainment dependence: (stability and cloud area) Explore effects of large scale on other parts of scheme
© Crown copyright Met Office Interaction with boundary layer Cold pools Important for: 1. Triggering and closure Temperature and moisture differences allow CAPE to be present locally even when the mean state is stable Additional KE to overcome CIN 2. Entrainment affects cloud area (and therefore buoyancy and vertical velocity) Enhanced lifting Two zones of temperature and moisture Requires memory of previous precipitation events Introduce energetics of boundary layer thermals Modify triggering and closure to have dependence on this MOAP secondment to work on cold pools
© Crown copyright Met Office Research areas 1. Entrainment / detrainment Dependence on cloud area Dependence on stability Adaptivity 2. Interaction with large scale What is the profile of ascent caused by convective heating? How does ascent affect closure and at what levels is it important? 3. Interaction with boundary layer Representing energetic response to CIN Representing cold pools 4. Memory Relative importance of cloud area, rh variability, BL variability Prognostic for cloud area 5. Closure How do surface processes and upper level processes combine?
© Crown copyright Met Office Higher resolutions Mass flux: Separate into component parts vertical velocity, cloud area, and cloud number Multiple plume: Quantify the need for a multi-plume approach Allows: grid-size sensitivity, inclusion of microphysics better coupling with PC2 stochasticity Applications submitted for Reading and Leeds CASE students to work on different aspects of grey-zone problem. Convection position available! See Closing date: 14 th July 2013
© Crown copyright Met Office Questions and answers
© Crown copyright Met Office Unification Give each component of the existing convection scheme an improved physical basis. Entrainment: Include dependence on stability and cloud area Detrainment: Reformulate to be adaptive all the way up the cloud, and let the level of adaptivity depend on cloud area Triggering and closure: Base on energetics of boundary layer processes and large-scale ascent
© Crown copyright Met Office Unification details Research areas include: Cloud area representation Cold pool representation Boundary layer thermal energetics Convective response to large-scale ascent
© Crown copyright Met Office UM run Stu Webster Indian Ocean 200m from 2.2km b.c.s 4000 x 2600 points 3 days
© Crown copyright Met Office What controls convective depth? Vertical extent of CAPE Entrainment Detrainment Cloud area? Boundary layer processes? (e.g. cold pools) High entrainment increases coupling to LS ascent/ descent, but it cant be high all the time!
© Crown copyright Met Office What controls heating amplitude? Closure Rate of CAPE creation? Inversion removal? Ascent?
Laura Davies, University of Reading, UK. Supervisors: Bob Plant, Steve Derbyshire (Met Office)
Isolating the Impact of Height Dependence on Cumulus Entrainment Walter Hannah May 25 th, 2011.
The effect of increased entrainment on monsoon precipitation biases in a GCM Stephanie Bush (University of Reading/UK Met Office), Andrew Turner (Reading),
DYMECS: Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (NERC Standard Grant) University of Reading: Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein,
MM5 studies at Wageningen University (NL) Title Jordi Vilà (Group 4) NL North sea Radar MM5 NL North sea.
Yuqing Wang and Chunxi Zhang International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii.
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science SCHOOL OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT Deep moist convection as a governor of the West African Monsoon C. E. Birch.
© Crown copyright Met Office High resolution COPE simulations Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean UK.
Convection Alison Stirling 21 st September Contents 1.Verification measures for forecasts (Michael Whitall) 2.Representing convection-wave interactions.
Predictable Chaotic Exhibits memory Equilibrium Towards non-equilibrium Acknowledgements LD is supported by NERC CASE award NER/S/A/2004/ Conclusions.
© Crown copyright Met Office Deep moist convection as a governor of the West African Monsoon 1 UK Met Office, 2 University of Leeds, 3 National Centre.
Training course: boundary layer IV Parametrization above the surface layer (layout) Overview of models Slab (integral) models K-closure model K-profile.
Continuous treatment of convection: from dry thermals to deep precipitating convection J.F. Guérémy CNRM/GMGEC.
Met Office GPCI simulations Adrian Lock. © Crown copyright UK Met Office simulations in GPCI HadGAM1 climate – for IPCC AR4 38 levels (~300m at 1km),
Geophysical Modelling: Climate Modelling How advection, diffusion, choice of grids, timesteps etc are defined in state of the art models.
13 June, 2013 Dymecs Meeting, Reading Tropical convective organisation in the UM Chris Holloway NCAS-Climate, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading.
Dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer of a Cloud- Resolving Model University of Reading, Department of Meteorology * DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Institut.
Page 1© Crown copyright Modelling the stable boundary layer and the role of land surface heterogeneity Anne McCabe, Bob Beare, Andy Brown EMS 2005.
Convective Parameterization in NWP Models Jack Kain And Mike Baldwin.
ICTP Regional Climate, 2-6 June Sensitivity to convective parameterization in regional climate models Raymond W. Arritt Iowa State University, Ames,
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006 Boundary layer mechanisms in extra-tropical cyclones Bob Beare.
Yanjun Jiao and Colin Jones University of Quebec at Montreal September 20, 2006 The Performance of the Canadian Regional Climate Model in the Pacific Ocean.
Pan American Land Feedbacks on Precipitation Robert E. Dickinson (Gatech) Acknowledging contributions from Rong Fu (Gatech), and Guiling Wang (U Conn.)
WG on role of PBL in deep convection Thanks to all WG participants for a fine discussion and Steve Klein for note-taking.
LINDSEY NOLAN WILLIAM COLLINS PETA-APPS TEAM MEETING OCTOBER 1, 2009 Stochastic Physics Update: Simulating the Climate Systems Accounting for Key Uncertainties.
© Crown copyright Met Office Cloudier Evaluating a new GCM prognostic cloud scheme using CRM data Cyril Morcrette, Reading University, 19 February 2008.
© Crown copyright Met Office Uncertainties in the Development of Climate Scenarios Climate Data Analysis for Crop Modelling workshop Kasetsart University,
Moisture Transport in Baroclinic Waves Ian Boutle a, Stephen Belcher a, Bob Plant a Bob Beare b, Andy Brown c 24 April 2014.
© Crown copyright Met Office Boundary layer thermodynamics and decoupling in the South Eastern Pacific along 20° South. Paul Barrett, Ian Boutle, Jane.
Ongoing work to improve convection in the UM Keith Williams (most of the work by Martin Willett) WGNE-31, 28/04/16.
Stephan de Roode The art of modeling stratocumulus clouds.
1 COPS Workshop 25 Sept 2006 UK COPS: Convection and Transport in Complex Terrain (CATICT) Alan Blyth and Stephen Mobbs.
The primary initiation of deep convection from boundary-layer convection during CSIP School of Earth and Environment NATIONAL CENTRE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE.
GardeGarde Designing unified convection parameterizations: two proposals related to equation sets and entrainment. Jean-Marcel Piriou, Météo-France. GCSS.
Sensitivity of MJO to the CAPE lapse time in the NCAR CAM3.1 Ping Liu, Bin Wang International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii Sponsored by.
Forecast simulations of Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus with CAM3 and CAM3-UW. Cécile Hannay (1), Jeffrey Kiehl (1), Dave Williamson (1), Jerry Olson (1),
© Crown copyright Met Office Uncertainties in the Development of Climate Scenarios PRECIS Workshop, MMD, KL, November 2012.
© Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and future directions Andy Brown.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 DEVELOPMENT OF 1- 4KM RESOLUTION DATA ASSIMILATION FOR NOWCASTING AT THE MET OFFICE Sue Ballard, September 2005 Z. Li, M.
GFS Deep and Shallow Cumulus Convection Schemes Jongil Han.
A Thermal Plume Model for the Boundary Layer Convection: Representation of Cumulus Clouds C. RIO, F. HOURDIN Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS,
Influence of the Subcloud Layer on the Development of a Deep Convective Ensemble Boing et al., 2012.
Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (DYMECS) University: Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein, Kirsty Hanley, John Nicol Met Office:
1 Numerical Weather Prediction Parameterization of diabatic processes Convection III The ECMWF convection scheme Christian Jakob and Peter Bechtold.
© Crown copyright Met Office Experiences with a 100m version of the Unified Model over an Urban Area Humphrey Lean Reading, UK WWOSC.
African easterly wave dynamics in a full-physics numerical model. Gareth Berry and Chris Thorncroft. University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY,USA.
Xin Xi Aspects of the early morning atmospheric thermodynamic structure which affect the surface fluxes and BL growth through convection:
1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Carol Roadnight, Peter Clark Met Office, JCMM Halliwell Representing convection in convective scale NWP models : An idealised.
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