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National Accounts in Korea National Income Statistics Team The Bank of Korea Kang, Changku National Income Statistics Team The Bank of Korea March 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "National Accounts in Korea National Income Statistics Team The Bank of Korea Kang, Changku National Income Statistics Team The Bank of Korea March 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Accounts in Korea National Income Statistics Team The Bank of Korea Kang, Changku National Income Statistics Team The Bank of Korea March 2010

2 Understanding of National Accounts ⅠⅠ Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity ⅡⅡ ⅢⅢ ⅤⅤ National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP ⅣⅣ Chain Linking Contents

3 Understanding of National Accounts ⅠⅠ Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity ⅡⅡ ⅢⅢ ⅤⅤ National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP ⅣⅣ Chain Linking

4 Circular Flow of Income I. Understanding of National Accounts

5 Production-side National Income = Distribution-side National Income = Expenditure-side National Income Equivalence of the three approaches Estimation Methodology In Korea, national income has for many years been essentially estimated using production approach method I. Understanding of National Accounts

6 Estimation procedure Collection of basic materials Estimation of national income from output approach (By commodity) Estimation of production-side national income (By industry) Estimation of expenditure-side national income I. Understanding of National Accounts

7 Under the 1993 SNA, activities that fall within the production boundary are as follow  Actually destined for the market;  final own consumption or gross capital formation, which are not aimed at sales  The own-account production of housing services by owner- occupied and of household affairs and personal services produced by paid employees The Production Boundary I. Understanding of National Accounts

8 Transactions between institutional units have to be recorded when claims and obligations arise, are transformed or cancelled  when the legal delivery of the goods is made  transactions of services when the services are provided to consumers  In the case of income, it is recorded at the time when the relevant claims on income arise Rules of Recording I. Understanding of National Accounts

9 The market prices mentioned here are divided into:  current year prices, the prices at that period whose prices are used in compiling statistics; and  base year(or benchmark year) prices representing the average prices of a selected year The current prices are used for compiling the nominal value of national income for the comparative year, which becomes the object for comparison with the base year, while the base year prices are used for drawing up the real value of national income of the comparative year Valuation of Output I. Understanding of National Accounts

10 Output indicator method: Real value added of the previous year × Volume index of relevant year Single deflation method: Nominal value added of the relevant year ÷ Price index of relevant year (deflator)* * Producer price index, consumer price index, export and import price index, etc. Double deflation method: [Nominal output/Price index] - [Nominal intermediate consumption/Price index] Converting Nominal National Income into Real Value I. Understanding of National Accounts

11 Release Details for Statistics by Type I. Understanding of National Accounts

12 Release Details for Statistics by Type (continued) I. Understanding of National Accounts

13 Seasonal Adjustment Specific values for the quarterly or monthly original time series consist of four separate components: trend, cyclical, seasonal, and irregular components  Trend Component: underlying long-term movement over time  Cyclical Variations: medium-term(normally, over one year) changes in results  Seasonal Variations: short-term fluctuations with a one-year cycle in recorded values  Irregular Variations: random disturbances due to ‘everyday’ unpredictable or unknown influences, such as strikes, natural disasters, illness and so on I. Understanding of National Accounts

14 Seasonal Adjustment (continued) I. Understanding of National Accounts

15 Seasonal Adjustment (continued)  Korea has used this comparison method as a main indicator since the first quarter of 2006  At the Bank of Korea : BOK-X-12-ARIMA  X-12-ARIMA : seasonal adjustment software the U.S. Department of Commerce(Census Bureau), first developed by Statistics Canada I. Understanding of National Accounts

16 Brief History of National Accounts in Korea  The history of Korea's national income statistics can be traced back to around the nation's liberation from Japan. Before Liberation (the period from 1937 to 1945), the Ministry of Finance of the Government-General of Chosen (colonial Japanese government) compiled rough estimates every year. After Liberation (the period from 1945 to 1957), the Planning Office, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Chosen (the Bank of Korea from 1950) compiled national income statistics; from the production-side, the distribution-side and the expenditure-side, respectively.  The Economic Coordination Office of the UN, established to support post- war reconstruction work, also estimated national income independently to attain guidelines on assistance policy. However, insufficient data sources and differing estimation methods resulted in widely divergent figures, which caused a lack of consistency and led to confusion among users. I. Understanding of National Accounts

17 Brief History of National Accounts in Korea (continued)  In August 1957, the Tax Advisory Team of the U.S. Treasury Department, led by Dr. James K. Hall, visited Korea and noted in a paper entitled the Recommendation for Korea's Gross National Product (GNP) that the Korean government should avoid the compilation of statistics lacking mutual consistency by a number of organizations and have the Bank of Korea alone deal with national income statistics. The U.S. recommendation was adopted and the Bank of Korea was designated as Korea's official institution for the compilation of national income statistics.  In 1958, the Bank of Korea worked out and announced the annual GNP and expenditures on GNP at current and constant prices(the base year of 1955) according to the UN's recommended method, the 1953SNA, together with retrospective estimations for the period from 1953 to 1957. In 1959, it added such compilations as distribution-side national income series, a general government balance table and an external transactions table, laying the foundation for the national income statistics in Korea. I. Understanding of National Accounts

18 Brief History of National Accounts in Korea (continued)  From the early 1960s, the necessity for quarterly statistics became particularly acute, in order to work out the government's economic development plans and draw up policies, and to evaluate the impact of policy on economic entitles. As a result, the Bank of Korea compiled the quarterly series, together with retrospective estimations from 1960, and began to draw up and announce national income statistics every quarter from 1968.  In 1986, the Bank of Korea worked out national account statistics that integrated national income, the flow of funds and Balance of Payments table, and in 1988 production account that linked Input-Output table with national income statistics, possessing the systems of national accounts with four accounts, apart from the national balance sheet. I. Understanding of National Accounts

19 Brief History of National Accounts in Korea (continued)  In 1995, it changed the key indicator of economic growth from the previous gross national product (GNP) to gross domestic product (GDP). From 1999, it introduced gross national income (GNI) and began to release quarterly nominal gross domestic product and seasonally adjusted statistics.  The Bank of Korea completed the shift to the 1993SNA in 2004, including the valuation of output by basic prices, change of disposal method of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM), expansion of the scope of capital formation and fixed capital consumption, along with the reform to the base year of 2000. Following its first announcement of "advance" quarterly estimates in 2005, the Bank of Korea in 2006 completed the work of converting the main indicator of quarterly economic growth rate from year-on-year comparison based on the original series to quarter-to-quarter comparison based on the seasonally adjusted series. I. Understanding of National Accounts

20  Value of output = Value of total sales or other uses of goods or services produced as outputs + Value of changes in inventories of goods produced as outputs Output Market Output  Basic price = Purchaser's price - Taxes on products + Subsidies on products - Trade and transport margins  Producer's Price = Purchaser's price - VAT, or similar deductible tax - Trade and Transport Margins I. Understanding of National Accounts

21  Intermediate consumption plus Compensation of employees plus Consumption of fixed capital plus Other taxes (less subsidies) on production Output for Own Final Use, Other Non Market Output I. Understanding of National Accounts

22  Purchaser's price = Basic price - Transport prices paid separately by the purchaser and accumulated trade margin transferred from the distribution process + Non-deductible tax (less subsidy) Intermediate Consumption I. Understanding of National Accounts

23 Value Added Value added refers to the value of goods and services newly created by productive activity in any given period. It is obtained by deducting the value of intermediate consumption (intermediate input) from the value of output. Value added consists of compensation of employees; operating surplus; consumption of fixed capital; taxes on production and imports; and subsidy (deduction). Of them, consumption of fixed capital is used as financial sources for capital accumulation, and the others are distributed as income of each institutional unit Gross value added is defined as the value of output less the value of intermediate consumption Net value added is defined as the value of output less the values of both intermediate consumption and consumption of fixed capital I. Understanding of National Accounts

24 Understanding of National Accounts ⅠⅠ Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity ⅡⅡ ⅢⅢ ⅤⅤ National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP ⅣⅣ Chain Linking

25  Manufacturing is defined as the industrial activities mainly engaged in the physical or chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products, which have different characteristics by conducting physical or chemical action to raw materials. According to kind of product and characteristic, manufacturing can be classified into: food products, beverages and tobacco products; textile and leather products; wood, paper, publishing and printing; petroleum, coal and chemical products; nonmetallic mineral products; metal products; machinery, electronic and other electric equipment; transportation equipment; and furniture and others n.e.c. Manufacturing II. Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity

26 Coverage of Manufacturing II. Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity

27 Coverage of Manufacturing (continued) II. Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity

28 Coverage of Manufacturing (continued) II. Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity

29 Coverage of Manufacturing (continued) II. Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity

30 Coverage of Manufacturing (continued) II. Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity

31 Estimation Method for Manufacturing Industry II. Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity

32 Understanding of National Accounts ⅠⅠ Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity ⅡⅡ ⅢⅢ ⅤⅤ National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP ⅣⅣ Chain Linking

33 Estimation Method by Expenditure Component III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

34 Process of Estimating Expenditure Components by the Commodity Flow Method (CFM) III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

35 Final consumption expenditure in the economy may be defined as the total value of all expenditures on goods and services by individual households; non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs); and general government units to satisfy their individual or collective needs and wants Final Consumption Expenditure III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

36 Coverage of Private Consumption Expenditures III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

37 Estimation Method of Private Consumption III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

38 Government consumption (final consumption expenditure) means the values the government has paid to consume goods and services for achieving public purposes. This can be largely divided into two parts. One is expenditure executed by the government to supply such collective services as public administration, national defense, maintenance of law and order, legislation and regulation and maintenance of public health to the overall society for free. The other is expenditure for offering individual services of medical treatment, health and education, etc to individual households for free or at prices that are not economically significant. Coverage of Government Consumption III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

39 Estimation Method of Government Consumption III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

40 Tangible or intangible assets that are not exhausted during the relevant period but used repeatedly and continuously for production over many accounting periods (normally one year or longer) are called fixed assets or capital goods. In the 1993SNA, the total value of a producer's acquisition, less disposal, of fixed assets is called gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) or gross fixed investment. Gross Fixed Capital Formation III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

41 Coverage of Gross Fixed Capital Formation III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

42 Classification of Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Type of Capital Good III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

43 Estimation of Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Type of Capital Good III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

44 Inventories in the economic accounts refer to goods which each industry(producers) possesses prior to further processing(i.e. production) or sale at a certain time. The main components of inventories are as follows: ◦ finished goods; ◦ goods in the process of production(work-in-progress); ◦ goods for re-sale; and ◦ raw materials and suppliers. Changes in inventories are changes in those inventories that take place during certain period. In other words, inventories are known as stocks and changes in inventories, i.e. stockbuilding are a flow variable. Changes in inventories are regarded as a component of gross domestic product (GDP). Changes in Inventories III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

45 Coverage of Changes in Inventories III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

46 Changes in Inventories of Producers III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

47 Exports and Imports of Goods and Services All transactions occurring between the domestic sector (residents) and the external sector (non-residents) are external transactions. The account covering these transactions is called the external transaction account. In accordance with the characteristics of the transactions, external transactions can be split into two categories: current transactions capital transactions Current transactions are sub-divided into: export and import transactions in goods and services between residents and non-residents; income transfer transactions related to receipts and payments in the form of dividends and interest, or compensation of employees (wages and salaries, etc); and current transfer transactions conducted without a quid pro quo. Capital transactions refer to investment and fund lending transactions between residents and non-residents. III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP

48 Coverage of Exports and Imports Goods Exports and imports of goods are sub-classified into:  general goods  goods for processing  goods procured in ports by carriers  repairs of goods  non-monetary gold categories Services Exports and imports of services are sub-divided into:  transportation and communication services  insurance services  other services  domestic(external) consumption expenditures of non-resident (resident) householdsdomestic(external) consumption expenditures of foreign institutions (governments)

49 III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP Estimation Method of Exports and Imports of Goods and Services

50 III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP Aggregate Indicator of 1993 SNA

51 III. Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP Trading Gains or Losses from Changes in the Terms of Trade

52 Understanding of National Accounts ⅠⅠ Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity ⅡⅡ ⅢⅢ ⅤⅤ National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP ⅣⅣ Chain Linking

53 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Measuring real growth - index numbers and chain- linking SNA93 recommends the use of chain volume measure. chain volume indexes provide better measures of movements in real output and expenditures than constant price estimates derived from fixed weighted indexes.

54 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Terminology Quantity Unit in which each individual good or service is defined Can be discrete (number of cars) or continuously variable (barrels of oil) Price Currency units per quantity (at which product is transacted) Value Price x quantity

55 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Economics of index numbers (continued) Economic theory has long played an important role in the conception of index numbers ‘Economic approach’ towards index numbers goes back to Könus who used consumer theory to develop a « true cost of living index in the 1920. Cost-of-living theory applies directly to measurement of price and volume indices of private consumption And other economic approaches apply to other parts of the accounts

56 Ⅳ. Chain Linking A COLI should be based on collections of goods and services that represent equivalent living standards Equivalent living standards does not (normally) imply the same bundle of products So, for a COLI, the composition of products is allowed to move, and quantities are not held fixed over time Substitution is allowed to happen Economics of index numbers (continued)

57 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Economic theory also suggests that substitution will happen when relative prices of products change When beef becomes expensive relative to chicken, consumers will normally buy more chicken than beef The effect is normally that the cost of maintaining an equivalent standard of living rises less rapidly than the cost of maintaining exactly the same quantities of beef and chicken Economics of index numbers (continued)

58 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Suppose there is a base period for which quantities of consumer goods have been fixed, say the year 2000 To measure the price change in consumption between 2000 and 2007 on the basis of a fixed bundle as in 2000 means that too much weight is given to those products whose relative prices declined since 2000 and too little weight is given to those products whose relative prices increased since 2000 The effect is that price rises are overstated in price index that uses 2000 weights Economics of index numbers (continued)

59 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Or, if 2007 weights had been used, there would be a downward bias in the price index The difference between a fixed-weight price index and a price index that accounts for substitution is the substitution bias For the 2000-2007 comparison, there are two ways to avoid or to minimise the substitution bias Direct comparison Indirect of chained comparison Economics of index numbers

60 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Diret comparisons (continued) In principle, a direct comparison, even between relatively distant periods, eliminates the substitution bias as long as there is a symmetric comparison a)2000 weights – Laspeyres price index b) 2007 weights – Paasche price index c) Symmetric Fisher index

61 Ⅳ. Chain Linking But direct comparisons that are not symmetric are subject to the substitution bias Example a) 2000 weights – Laspeyres price index Diret comparisons

62 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Indirect (chained) comparisons (continued) Alternatively, substitution biases can be reduced or eliminated throught indirect of chained comparison Example a)2000 weights – Laspeyres price index 01-00 b)2001 weights – Laspeyres price index 02-01 c)And so forth up to the Laspeyres price index 07-06

63 Ⅳ. Chain Linking The indirect or chained Laspeyres comparison between 2000 and 2007 is then But we could also set up a chained comparison using a Paasche index: And of course, a Fisher index is also possible Indirect (chained) comparisons

64 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Options: 1.Direct comparison, not symmetric (e.g., Laspeyres index with 2000 weights): least desirable option because there will be substitution bias 2.Chained comparison, not symmetric (e.g., annually weighted Laspeyres index): good second-best option, even if not symmetric 3.Direct comparison, symmetric: conceptually valid but not very practical because matrices of growth rates would be required 4.Chained comparison, symmetric: conceptually valid and feasible but more complicated than option 2 (current weights are needed) So what should we choose?

65 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Chained comparison, not symmetric seems to be a pragmatic way forward that largely deals with the substitution bias while remaining relatively straight forward in implementation In practice, for price indices such as the CPI, this is the most widely used formula Note that so far, we have only talked about price indices. For national accounts, the focus is really about volume indices As we shall see shortly, most of what has been said applies to volume indices as well Preliminary conclusion (continued)

66 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Volume indices in the national accounts (continued) Countries either use a Laspeyres-type volume index or a Fisher-type volume index in the national accounts An important aspect is the choice of the lowest level of detail from which aggregation starts At this lowest level, the implicit assumption is made that this particular output or expenditure category represents a single ‘product’ Typically, this is not the case At this lowest level of aggregation, a volume index is derived by deflation, that is by applying a price index to a value index

67 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Given volume indices at the lowest level of aggregation, aggregation proceeds with a Laspeyres-type volume index What was said about price indices before follows here as well: A direct volume index that is not symmetric will give too much (too little) weight to those products whose quantities rise (fall) relatively quickly and thus overstate volume growth of GDP after the base year t-τ Volume indices in the national accounts (continued)

68 Ⅳ. Chain Linking And it will understate economic growth before the base year t-τ The more rapid relative price movements and relative volume movements are, the greater the over- or understatement effect Example: Information and communication technologies Computer price index France: 1980=100; 2000=8.7  -12% per year Volume indices in the national accounts (continued)

69 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Construct GFCF volume aggregate for computers and other equipment With direct Laspeyres index using 1980 weights With annually chained Laspeyres index The following graph shows that results are very different Volume indices in the national accounts

70 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Source: Lequiller and Blades (2006) Understanding national accounts, OECD

71 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Indirect (chained) comparisons are particularly important when relative prices and/or quantities change rapidly New methods for price indices such as hedonic price indices for ICT should thus only be introduced into the national accounts if the appropriate index number formula (chaining) is used in the accounts How chaining plays out empirically depends - on extent of relative price changes - on level of detail from which volume aggregation starts Preliminary conclusion (continued)

72 Ⅳ. Chain Linking -on the nature of the price indices that constitute the price elements at this lowest level of aggregation -- for example, how are PPIs compiled that enter the deflation procedure on the output side of the accounts? -- for example, how is the CPI compiled that enters the deflation procedure on the expenditure (and sometimes on the production) side of the accounts?  Consistency and coordination with price statistics is important Preliminary conclusion

73 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Additivity in levels: relates to the fact that when a chained volume index is used to generate ‘constant price’ level series for components of a total, these ‘constant price’ components do not in general add up to the total constant price level This is often presented as a drawback of chained volume measures Several points can be made about this (Non)-additivity (continued)

74 Ⅳ. Chain Linking 1.The economic rationale for additive ‘constant price’ series is actually not very clear. - Most analyses focus on rates of change, not levels or differences, so an index would be sufficient - Sometimes constant-price ratios are being computed (such as investment/GDP) but more often than not, these ratios are more meaningful at current prices. This avoids base- year dependence (Non)-additivity (continued)

75 Ⅳ. Chain Linking 2. When annually-chained Laspeyres volume indices are used, there is additivity for any consecutive pair of years - this facilitates calculations for the contributions to GDP growth - this permits balancing of supply-use tables that are expressed in previous year’s prices (Non)-additivity (continued)

76 Ⅳ. Chain Linking 3.Even with fixed-weighted indices, there may be problems with additivity - ‘fixed-weight’ indices have not really been fixed but in most countries weights were changed every 5 to 10 years - at the moment of switching to a new base year, there is a question of how to link to old and the new series - if one single adjustment factor is used for all levels of the account, additivity is preserved but component- specificity of adjustment factors is lost - if component-specific factors are used, additivity is lost (Non)-additivity

77 Ⅳ. Chain Linking Chain linking is well-established practice in OECD countries Most countries have opted for annual chain-linked Laspeyres volume indices as a pragmatic and conceptually satisfactory solution Economic theory as well as several practical considerations support the use of chain linked indices Additivity is lost There are additional practical difficulties in particular in conjunction with quarterly accounts Communication to users is important Overall, chain linking is the right way forward Conclusions

78 Understanding of National Accounts ⅠⅠ Estimation Methodology of GDP by Kind of Economic Activity ⅡⅡ ⅢⅢ ⅤⅤ National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) Estimation Methodology of Expenditures on GDP ⅣⅣ Chain Linking

79 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.2% in 2008, Real Gross National Income (GNI) increased by -0.8% Economic Growth and Real Gross National Income ( At 2005 constant prices ) (%) Year 2008 p ( Original Series ) 2008 p (Seasonally Adjusted Series ) 20072008 p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ G D P5.12.25.54.33.1-3.41.10.40.2-5.1 G N I4.8-0.8 3.32.3-2.7-5.4 0.9-3.6-1.6 Note : Original series is percent change over previous year, S.A. is percent change from previous quarter.

80 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  The slowdown of speed of worsening in Terms of trade and enlargement of Trading gains & losses Trading Gains & Losses and Terms of Trade (2005=100, %) 2007 2008 p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Y Ⅰ Ⅱ ⅢⅣ Y Terms of trade 1) 96.0 97.294.095.7 89.791.085.387.288.4 (-0.6)(0.3)(2.2)(-4.4)(-0.8) (-6.6)(-5.2) (- 12.2) (-7.2)(-7.6) Trading Gains & Losses from changes in the terms of trade 2 ) (At 2005 constant Prices) -3.7-3.9-2.7-6.5-16.8 -10.6-9.7-16.2-13.3-49.8 Notes: 1) Export deflator / Import deflator 2) Trillion Won

81 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  Manufacturing and Construction showed strikingly reduced to growth, rising only 3.1%, -2.4%  Service industry increased by 2.5% with most service sectors Growth rates by Kind of Economic Activity (At 2005 constant prices) (%) Year 2008 p (original series) 1) 2008 p (seasonally adjusted series) 2) 20072008 p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 4.0 (2.2)5.5 (6.4) 7.44.44.26.4 5.80.80.6-0.1 Manufacturing7.2 (34.1)3.1 (33.9)9.18.45.6-9.11.21.70.1-11.9 Construction2.6 (3.4)-2.4 (-7.1)0.8-1.5-6.3-1.4-2.21.1-4.2 Service Industry5.1 (53.3)2.5(60.8)4.43.32.6-0.10.80.10.5-1.4 Notes : 1) Rate of change compared with the same quarter of the previous year 2) Rate of change compared with the previous quarter 3) Figures in parentheses are the contribution to growth(%) of GDP

82 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) Growth rates of Manufacturing (Percent change over previous year) 20062007 2008 p Year Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Manufacturing8.07.13.19.08.35.6-9.0 Processed foods & tobacco-0.41.80.43.10.71.0-2.8 Textile products & apparel2.7-2.1-3.8-1.7-4.4-0.7-8.2 Wood & Wood products1.6-0.11.63.13.66.0-5.3 Furniture & other manufacturing8.45.1-9.7-3.8-8.2-11.5-14.5 Machinery equipment10.612.60.65.61.27.3-10.5 Electrical and electronic equipment16.411.38.121.721.99.3-14.9 Precision instruments19.218.0-2.2-0.6-4.33.1-6.6 Transport equipment13.49.48.210.614.08.90.4 ICT Manufacturing18.512.58.524.623.89.5-17.1 Non-ICT Manufacturing5.55.81.85.54.74.8-7.0

83 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) Growth rates of Service Industry (Percent change over previous year) 20062007 2008 p Year ⅠⅡⅢⅣ Service Industry4.45.12.54.43.32.6-0.1 Restaurants and hotels2.54.80.73.31.21.8-3.3 Transport, storage and communications5.15.53.56.24.94.2-1.2 Financial intermediation4.210.84.19.63.32.31.6 Real estate, renting and business activities2.21.41.31.52.61.7-0.4 Information, communication5.53.72.95.65.12.0-0.3 Business activities4.85.22.55.13.62.6-0.5 Health and social work6.48.35.35.85.55.64.3

84 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary) The growth rate of employment was low.  The number of employees in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Manufacturing was decreased continuously.  The number of employees in Service Industry was increased relatively higher than the other industry. The number of employees and its increase rate by industry (unit : thousand, %) YearTotal Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing ManufacturingConstruction Service Industry 2007 23,433 (1.2) 1,726 (-3.3) 4,119 (-1.2) 1,850 (0.8) 15,634 (2.4) 2008 23,577 (0.6) 1,693 (-1.9) 4,079 (-1.0) 1,819 (-1.7) 15,877 (1.6) Notes : Figures in parentheses are the increase rates of the number of employees

85 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  The growth rate of Facilities investment and Construction were decreased. Exports of goods was sluggish. The growth rate of Private expenditure was low. Growth rates by Component of Expenditure (At 2005 constant Prices) (%) Year 2008 p (original series) 1) 2008 p (seasonally adjusted series) 2) 20072008 p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Private Expenditure 5.1 (54.9)0.9 (22.7) 4.02.31.4-3.71.1-0.2-0.0-4.6 Facilities investment 9.3 (17.6)-2.0 (-9.1)1.51.14.3-14.0-0.40.40.2-14.2 Construction1.4 (5.9)-2.1 (-18.2)-1.9-0.30.2-5.6-2.5-0.30.1-3.0 Exports of goods11.9 (80.4)4.1 (68.2)11.110.98.5-11.6-0.72.5-0.9-12.6 Imports of goods10.9 (68.6)4.6 (68.2)11.810.010.6-11.60.13.01.2-15.7 Notes : 1) Rate of change compared with the same quarter of the previous year 2) Rate of change compared with the previous quarter 3) Figures in parentheses are the contribution to growth(%) of GDP

86 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  GDP at current prices of 2008 was 9,287 hundred million dollars.  GNI per capita of 2008 was 19,231 dollars. Growth rates of GDP & GNI per capita (At current prices) Unit 2005 2006 2007 2008 p G D P ( Gross Domestic Product) Trillion won 865.2908.7975.01,023.9 Hundred million dollar 8,4479,51110,4939,287 GNI per capita Thousand won 17,95718,84420,15921,204 Dollar 17,53119,72221,69519,231

87 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  The weight of Service industry was enlarged continuously. Production Structure (At current prices) (%) 200520062007 2008 p Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 3.33.22.92.5 Mining and quarrying 27.827.427.528.3 Manufacturing 27.527.127.328.1 Electricity, gas and water 2.3 2.21.8 Construction 7.67.57.47.0 Service industry 59.059.760.060.3

88 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)   The weights of Final consumption expenditure, Exports of goods and services and Fixed capital formation were enlarged. Expenditure Structure (At current prices) (%) 200520062007 2008 p Final Consumption expenditure67.769.069.169.7 Private53.854.554.454.5 Government13.914.514.715.3 Gross fixed capital formation29.729.629.431.4 Construction18.517.917.318.4 Facilities investment 1) 9.59.910.310.9 Exports of Goods and Services39.339.741.952.9 (less) Imports of goods and services36.638.340.454.1 Note : 1) Includes intangible fixed assets

89 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  Gross savings ratio and Domestic gross investment ratio were increased. - Individual net savings ratio was very low. Savings and Investment (At current year prices) (%) 200520062007 2008 p 2008 p Gross Savings Ratio 32.130.830.830.7 Private Private22.220.820.221.3 Non-business Non-business6.95.74.34.3 Business Business15.315.115.817.0 Government Government9.810.010.69.4 Gross Domestic Investment Ratio 29.829.729.531.2 Gross Domestic Fixed investment ratio Gross Domestic Fixed investment ratio29.028.828.629.1 ※ Individual net savings ratio 6.54.72.62.5

90 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  Foreign dependence degree of Korean economy was deepened Ratio of exports and imports to GNI (At current prices) (%) 200520062007 2008 p 2008 p Ratio of exports and imports to GNI (Nominal) 78.680.985.9110.6 Gross exports Gross exports40.741.243.754.7 Goods Goods35.436.237.946.6 Gross imports Gross imports37.939.742.255.9 Goods Goods31.333.034.847.2

91 V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary V. National Accounts 2008 (Preliminary)  The increase rate of GDP deflator of 2008 was 2.7% and that of domestic consumption deflator was 4.3% G D P Deflator (%) 200520062007 2008 p 2008 p GDP deflator0.7-0.12.12.7 Domestic consumption deflator Domestic consumption deflator2.71.92.24.3 Export deflator Export deflator-6.7-4.70.725.2 Import deflator Import deflator-3.2-1.21.435.6

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