1. Where we stand 6/27/20161  Climate change conference – reminder  Anyone?  Your exam  The good  The not-so-good  Your paper (Prospectus due Friday November 19)  Your large question  Your sub-questions  The Readings?  Reader?  Website?  Other?  CC and Gender?

2. Biological Dimension of Climatic-Change Fingerprint 2  What is a fingerprint  Fingerprints are changes that show a certain pattern that is unique to a specific climate-change driver.  [see online info from Pew Center on Global Climate Change]  Question:  Are there any general effects of current warming across natural systems?  Is it possible to discern a global-warming fingerprint? 6/27/2016

3. IPCC and Degrees of Confidence Quantitative Scale:  95% or greater Very High Confidence  67-95% High Confidence  33-67%Medium Confidence  5 – 33%Low Confidence  Less than 5%Very Low Confidence 6/27/20163

4. IPCC and Degrees of Confidence Qualitative Scale: Well Established – Lots of evidence; high consensus Established but Incomplete – high consensus on limited information Competing Explanations – Lots of evidence; alternative explanations Speculative – Little evidence and many plausible explanations 6/27/20164

5. The IPCC Dynamic “We have very high confidence that X might happen!” “We have medium to low confidence that X will happen!” Converged to the notion that the statements should speak to the “will” alternative for a baseline. 6/27/20165

6. Observed Changes in Physical and Ecological Systems (from IPCC 2001) hydrology / sea ice animals plants study covers study based on glaciers large area remote sensing 6/27/20166

7. Key Conclusions from IPCC Recent Regional Climate Changes, particularly Temperature Increases, have Already Affected Many Physical and Biological Systems (high confidence, or >67% sure) Biotic change: 44 regional studies, 400 plants and animals, 20 to 50 years Physical change: 16 regional studies, 100 processes, 20-150 yrs  non-polar glacier retreat  reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in summer  earlier plant flowering and longer growing season in Europe  poleward and upward (elevation) migration of plants, insects and animals  earlier bird arrival and egg laying  increased incidence of coral bleaching  increased economic losses due to extreme weather events 6/27/20167

8. 12345 Risks to unique & threatened systems Risks to SomeRisks to Many Increase Large increase Risk of extreme weather events Distribution of impacts Negative for some regions Negative for most regions Aggregate impacts Net Negative in All Metrics Positive or Negative Monetary; Most People Adversely Affected Very low Higher Risks of large scale discontinuities Past Future 0 O b s e r v a t i o n s -0.7 Increase in Global Mean Temperature after 1990 (°C) Figure 19-8-1: Summary of Lines of Evidence 6/27/20168

9. Parmeson and Yohe (2003)  Combined biological and economic approaches to examine natural systems  Assessed data-sets and individuals cases available in scientific literature using three variables  Proportion of observations matching climate-change predictions  Numbers of competing explanations for these observations  Confidence of relating each observation to climate change  To overcome any literature bias (negative bias), used only multi-species studies that reported neutral and negative climate correlations as well as positive ones  Focus on: phenological effects (season changes on lives of plants and animals) 6/27/20169

10. Has the climate change of this past 100 years had any effects?  IPCC - “recent regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases, have already affected many physical and biological systems.” 6/27/201610

11. results  For range boundaries of 99 species of northern- hemisphere temperature bird, butterfly and alpine herb at the end of the 20 th century  moved on average 6.1 km north or same number of meters upwards per decade  Total of 172 species of herb, butterfly, shrub, tree and amphibian – earlier spring timing of 2.3 days per decade  ~ 87% of the species that showed any change – showed a change expected with climatic warming 6/27/201611

12. Edith’s Checkerspot (Euphydryas editha) 6/27/201612

13. Diagnostic Biological Fingerprint  Temporal - Advancement of timing or northward expansion in warm decades (1930s/40s & 1980s/'90s) - Delay of timing or southward contraction in cool decades (1950s/'60s)  Spatial Different behaviors at extremes of range boundary during particular climate phase, e.g. expansion at northern range boundary simultaneous with contraction at southern range boundary during warming period  Community Abundance changes have gone in opposite directions for cold-adapted vs. warm- adapted species. e.g. lowland birds increasing and montane birds decreasing at mid-elevation site. 6/27/201613

14. Conclusions  Parmeson and Yohe:  high to very high confidence that regional climate changes (resulting from global warming) have had impacts on wild species  Observed changes are typically small in magnitude, but are likely to be an important factor in long-term persistence of species and stability of ecosystems 6/27/201614

15. Phenology  Phenology: the study of a plant or animal’s progression through its life cycle in relation to the seasons  Another main indicator of climatic fingerprint  In Britain, for example, flowering and leafing occur 6 to 8 days earlier for every degree C rise in temperature  Species react differently: oak (Quercus) responds twice as fast as ash (Fraxinus) to an increase in temperature  European and North American phenological sets: changes (probably) associated with CC, esp with regards to earlier spring phenology  Note: a number of the major climate-related oscillations have a phenological effect 6/27/201615

16. Important to know the particular species’ requirements  Migratory black-tailed godwit  Shore bird  Winters between Britain and Iberia  Breeding in summer in Iceland  Breeding pairs – high partner fidelity  Male and females winter in different locations – but arrive in Iceland typically within 3 days of each other  ?: how this degree of synchrony is maintained when the environmental conditions at the different sexes’ wintering sites are dissimilar?  Pied flycatcher  Migration is timed to availability of food for its nestlings  However – in parts of the Netherlands the caterpillars is now at its food peak early in the season. There – the flycatcher population is in decline  Will it be able to adapt in time? 6/27/201616

17. Biological communities and species shift 6/27/201617  Some species do not migrate – but will shift their geographical position or range in response to CC  Climate is but one factor of many that determine a species’ spatial distribution – species rarely move uniformly with each other in response to climate change  Plus  Different species migrate at different rates  Thus: takes time for ecological communities to stabilize after a period of CC  Species at the leading edge of shifts/migrations tend to migrate faster than those already established  Changes are asymmetrical: species invading faster from lower elevations or latitudes than resident species receding upslope or poleward  Result: increase in species richness of communities at leading edge of migration  Transitory biodiversity  Plus: many of today’s systems are either managed or bound by land managed by humans == effective barrier to species migration  Problem: old ecological communities disrupted + impeding species migration halted

18. Ecological responses to recent climate change (Walther et al 2002) 6/27/201618  There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

19. Extreme ends… 6/27/201619

20. 6/27/201620

21. Coral bleaching in tropical seas 6/27/201621  Most noticeable  Already near their upper thermal limits – mass bleaching events have taken place whenever sea temperatures have > long-term summer average by more than 1 degree  6 periods of bleaching between 1979 and 2002 – increasing in # and intensity  1998: 16% of world’s reef-building corals died

22. Arctic lakes 6/27/201622  1997 - 2004: decline of 1170 large lakes (> 40 ha); 11%  Total regional lake surface area decreased by 6% (93 000 ha); 125 lakes vanished;  Northerly lakes increasing in size – by 12% (13 3000 ha)  Increased precipitation in the north  Southerly declines in lake area have outpaced northerly gains in lakes  The more southerly permafrost soils  no longer permanently frozen  allow lakes to rain

23. Mountain snow and ice 6/27/201623  Note: mountain snowpacks affect quantity and timing of water in streams supplying ecosystems in surrounding lowlands  Nearly all mountains of sufficient height on Earth have snow caps  Those will be reduced in volume – especially at lower latitudes  Smaller mountain snow caps may be seasonally thicker due to extra precipitation  Already happening – at lower and mid latitudes (China, N.A. and Europe)  Plus: snow-cap melt run off will shift away from summer and fall when biological (and human) demand for water is greatest compared to winter and early spring  Annual cycle of water supply for many terrestrial and human systems will see reduced temporal buffering  1/6 th of the human population relies on glaciers and seasonal snowpacks for water supply  Over 50% of river flow dominated by snow melt in: all of Canada, NW states of US, all of Scandinavia (exc Denmark) Balkan Europe, Russia, NE China, much of Chile, SW Argentina and S of New Zealand

24. Water and ice 6/27/201624  In terms of human # - most critical region: China and parts of India  Supports 2 billion people  Largest volume of ice outside of polar and peri-polar regions  Nearly 70% of the Ganges’ summer flow and 50-60% of other of the regions’ major rivers: melt water

25. Details. Details. Complexity in details. 6/27/201625  Global warming  far fewer areas of snow cover  does act to reduce carbon loss from soils around the margins of snowfields  Mountain areas of thin snow cover tend to be ecotones – special biological communities in border areas between two habitat types  Given that biological communities migrate and change (more so with CC) – ecotones are v sensitive  Carbon in soils can either accumulate or be released – depending on climate and climate change  Areas of thin snow cover are less insulated from the cold  affects the rate of carbon release from soil. How?

26. Winter forest soil respiration controlled by climate and microbial community composition (Monson et al, 2006) 6/27/201626  Most terrestrial carbon sequestration at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere occurs in seasonal, montane forest ecosystems  Winter respiratory carbon dioxide losses from these ecosystems are high, and over half of the carbon assimilated by photosynthesis in the summer can be lost the following winter  The amount of winter carbon dioxide loss is potentially susceptible to changes in the depth of the snowpack; a shallower snowpack has less insulation potential, causing colder soil temperatures and potentially lower soil respiration rates.  Recent climate analyses have shown widespread declines in the winter snowpack of mountain ecosystems in the western USA and Europe that are coupled to positive temperature anomalies

27. Winter forest soil respiration controlled by climate and microbial community composition (Monson et al, 2006) 6/27/201627  Here we study the effect of changes in snow cover on soil carbon cycling within the context of natural climate variation.  We use a six-year record of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in a subalpine forest to show that years with a reduced winter snowpack are accompanied by significantly lower rates of soil respiration.  Furthermore, we show that the cause of the high sensitivity of soil respiration rate to changes in snow depth is a unique soil microbial community that exhibits exponential growth and high rates of substrate utilization at the cold temperatures that exist beneath the snow.  Our observations suggest that a warmer climate may change soil carbon sequestration rates in forest ecosystems owing to changes in the depth of the insulating snow cover.  Decreases in the winter snow pack will generally cause decreases in the loss of respired carbon dioxide from soils of forest ecosystems – thus enhancing the potential for soil carbon sequestration  A warmer climate may change the beneath-snow soil temperature in forest ecosystems because of changes in the depth of the insulating snow cover, changing soil respiration rates, and soil C sequestration rates

28. 6/27/201628  Thus far: discussed change observed  Further change is anticipated with further warming  IPCC scientific consensus  Warming will continue through the rest of the this century and beyond  Questions: how much warming and at what rate  Depends on future emissions of GHG  Future species migration and other climate-related biological impacts will continue beyond those already seen

29. What if species have nowhere to migrate to? 6/27/201629  Species migration: complex and difficult in a modern landscape highly fragmented by human management and land use; Critical to level of extinction if species’ thermally determined spatial range becomes restricted and reduced to nothing  Typically: at high-latitude margins of continents  A terrestrial species in Eurasia migrating northwards as the climate warms will reach the edge of the continent. – nowhere to go  Polar bears  Evolved from a group of brown bears stranded by glaciers  Speciated rapidly, evolving sharper canine teeth (less vegetation), longer neck (for swimming) larger paws (for spreading weight on ice and swimming), and thicker fur lighter in color  Require ice platforms from which to hunt: Arctic ice is reducing quickly. 1 estimate: 7% reduction in 25 years and 40% loss of thickness  Top of the food chain; some seal populations have increased  affecting fish predation  Walrus  Have to work harder to find food due to there being less ice. Walrus mothers nurse their young on sea-ice floes  Of the 3 walrus species, population living in the Russian Arctic has the smallest population – between 5 – 10,000  Emperor penguin  Breeding population declined abruptly in the late 1970s to 50% of former level –  Decline in Antarctic krill  less winter ice

30. Tops of mountains… 6/27/201630  Global warming thermally determined zonation on mountains changes and rises  Cannot migrate above mountain summits  Alpine biome is 3% of the vegetated terrestrial surface – and shrinking  Ural Mountains  Temperatures risen by more than 4 C in 20 th century  Tree lines have risen between 20 and 80 m upslope  Reducing regional alpine lines by 10 – 20%  Mountain pygmy possum (S-E Australia)  Habitat favored by skiers  Under serious threat

31. Highland forests of Monteverde, Costa Rica 6/27/201631  20 species of 50 anurans (frogs and toads) in a 30 km2 study area went extinct – including endemic golden toad (1987)  Population crashes all associated with decline in dry-season mist frequency – due raising of cloud-bank base (presumed)  Changes behavior of animals  Harlequin frogs gathered near waterfalls  increased change of attack by parasitic flies  increased mortality  Population crashes due constellation of demographic changes linked to regional climatic warming

32. ‘A message from the frogs’ – Blaustein and Dobston (Nature 2006 ) 6/27/201632  The harlequin frogs of tropical America are at the sharp end of climate change. About two-thirds of their species have died out, and altered patterns of infection because of changes in temperature seem to be the cause.  Climate change has already altered transmission of a pathogen that affects amphibians – leading to widespread populations and extinctions  67 % of the 110 species of harlequin frogs endemic to the region have died in past 20 years  78-83% of extinctions occurred in unusually warm years in the tropics  Shifting temperatures are the ultimate trigger for the expansion of a pathogenic fungus

33. More climate and disease 6/27/201633  Mountain pine beetle  Warmer climate conditions allow the mountain pine beetle to complete its life cycle in 1 year rather than 2 years  Mountain Pine Beetle and Forest Carbon in BC  Mountain Pine Beetle: A Climate Change Catastrophe