1. Can Botswana’s success be emulated
Can Botswana’s success be emulated? Dr Kathryn Sturman, South African Institute of International Affairs

2. Diamonds & demographics: a lucky combination
Population est. 2009: Botswana million Namibia 2.2m Norway 4.9m Denmark 5.5m Sierra Leone 5.8m Zimbabwe 12m Angola 19m Ghana 24m Tanzania 45m South Africa 50m DRC 68m Nigeria 158m
Source: Afrique Avenir, July 2010

3. A democratic, developmental state: success by design
Relatively homogeneous population enabling for democracy
Good leadership: Seretse Khama, :
vested mineral rights in national government, not tribal authorities
negotiated ownership with De Beers of all diamond mines
mobilised nationalist drive for development; professional civil service – ‘hegemonic project’ (Taylor, 2001)
Good policies: - did not use resources to raise loans, instead wrote off British grants-in-aid ‘2nd independence’ 1972/73
- built up reserves of diamonds during global recession in 1980s, with De Beers controlled supply & price of diamonds
- relative lack of corruption, due to both good governance and nature of the diamond industry (De Beers monopoly)

4. Botswana’s challenges
Distorted economy: unemployment; inequality; bloated public service
Shallow democracy: intolerance of dissent; marginalised minorities
HIV/AIDS: social crisis
Global financial crisis, De Beers stopped production for 1st time = crisis for Botswana, showed urgency to diversify
Diamonds are not forever…
Jwaneng mine
– Botswana today…
‘The Big Hole’, Kimberley, SA – Botswana tomorrow?

5. A model for other African countries?NO
Botswana’s diamonds a unique natural resource = unlike oil, gold, copper, uranium, etc. has no intrinsic value
= Kimberlite pipes very rare, can be secured, formal mining in a predictable, controlled environment
= unlike alluvial ‘lootable’ diamonds in DRC, Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone
Historical context unique: De Beers monopoly ended 2001
Most similar countries: Namibia, Angola
Alluvial & marine mining only in Namibia
Angola has oil & diamonds, complicating governance
YES
Leadership and sound policy can always be emulated, with focus on democratic and developmental state
Regional and international initiatives also needed when national governance and institutions weak, leaders unwilling or unable to harness resources for development
e.g. problem of Namibian govt backing Zim government in Kimberley Process investigation of Marange diamond fields HR abuses
Botswana needs to actively export its model within SADC and the AU