1. Patterns in Industrial Copper Consumption Patterns in Industrial Copper Consumption By Donald A. Singer and W. David Menzie 2009 Annual Conference of the Geological Society of America, Oct. 18-21, 2009

2. Singer Demand for Copper Information about future demand for copper is key to justifying and planning exploration

3. Patterns in copper consumption through time and by country help predict this demand Singer Demand for Copper

4. Consumption Estimates Consumption can be measured at different stages, including raw minerals by processing industries, processed minerals by industries, and minerals in final goods. Consumption typically measured at industrial stage because data are easily obtained and final goods measurement is difficult because requires disaggregating finished goods into component materials Industrial stage Cu consumption accounts for about 90% of all Cu consumptionIndustrial stage Cu consumption accounts for about 90% of all Cu consumption Its use in 20 most populous nations accounts for 66% of total world Cu consumptionIts use in 20 most populous nations accounts for 66% of total world Cu consumption Singer

5. Approaches to Projecting Copper Consumption Linear Growth rate Per capita consumption by country with increasing per capita GDP Singer

7. Why Use Per Capita Consumption? Recent studies have shown Recent studies have shown a consistent pattern of per capita consumption of minerals with increasing per capita income At low income levels, per capita consumption of minerals is low During initial states of income growth, per capita consumption increases slowly After income has reached a threshold level, per capita consumption increases rapidly When countries reach high levels of income, per capita consumption is essentially constant DeYoung, J.H., Jr., and Menzie, W.D., 1999, The changing uses of minerals information—A government perspective, in Otto, James, and Kim, Hyo-Sun, eds., Proceedings of the Workshop on the Sustainable Development of Non-Renewable Resources Towards the 21st Century: New York, October 15-16, 1998: United Nations Development Programme,DeYoung, J.H., Jr., and Menzie, W.D., 1999, The changing uses of minerals information—A government perspective, in Otto, James, and Kim, Hyo-Sun, eds., Proceedings of the Workshop on the Sustainable Development of Non-Renewable Resources Towards the 21st Century: New York, October 15-16, 1998: United Nations Development Programme, Menzie, W.D., DeYoung, J.H., Jr., and Steblez, W.G., 2001, Some implications of changing patterns of mineral consumption: World Mining Congress XVIII at MINExpo INTERNATIONAL 2000 ｮ, Presented during the World Mining Policies session. Menzie, W.D., Singer, D.A., and DeYoung, Jr., J.D., 2005, Physical resource limitations, in Simpson, David, Toman, M.A., and Ayres, R.U. eds., Scarcity and growth revisited—Natural resources and the environment in the new millennium: Resources for the Future Press, Washington, DC, p. 33–53.

8. Per Capita Consumption of Minerals A growth curve can be modeled by a logistic function: C = (K/(1+ e -r log(i) )) P where: C is consumption of a commodity, K is a constant representing the saturation level of per capita consumption of the commodity in an economy, r is a constant, i is per capita income, or per capita GDP, and P is population. Singer

9. PROJECTED PER CAPITA GDP/COUNTRY Singer

10. PROJECTED POPULATION

11. Information Sources Population estimates: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpphttp://esa.un.org/unpp http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/0,,c ontentMDK:20535285~menuPK:1192694~pagePK:64133150~piPK:6 4133175~theSitePK:239419,00.html GDP estimates: Based on 1980-2000 GDP growth rate, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/0,,c ontentMDK:20535285~menuPK:1192694~pagePK:64133150~piPK:6 4133175~theSitePK:239419,00.html Copper data: Edelstein, D.,2000-2006, Copper,Mineral Commodity Summaries, Minerals Yearbook,USGS, http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/copper/ Software: JMP, Release 7, SAS Institute

12. Consumption by country based on per capita GDP Singer

13. Equations Singer

14. Germany exports much of its copper as finished goods GB imports many finished goods Singer Consumption of Copper

15. Estimated Copper USE Singer

18. Estimated New Copper Needed by 2025 If rates of copper mine production could be maintained at current rates in spite of depletion Then 140 million tons of mined copper needs to be added to present productionThen 140 million tons of mined copper needs to be added to present production This is equal to adding the capacity of 35 new porphyry copper deposits by 2025 Singer

19. Conclusions Using the relationship between per capita consumption of Cu and GDP, Cu consumption to 2025 increases by 3.8%/year rather than 2.3% using standard methods The 2025 total copper estimate using GDP is almost 40% higher than the linear estimate New mine capacity equal to 35 porphyry copper deposits needs to be added by 2025 China will dominate consumption of copper due to increasing per capita GDP and its large population Singer

20. INFORMATION SOURCES Singer, D.A., and Menzie, W.D., 2009, Patterns in industrial copper consumption: 2009 Portland GSA Annual Meeting, (18-21 October 2009) Singer, D.A., and Menzie, W.D., 2010, Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessments—An Integrated Approach: Oxford University Press, New York, 219 p. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1155/ http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1155/ Singer, D.A., Berger, V.I., and Moring, B.C., 2008, Porphyry copper deposits of the world: database, map, and grade and tonnage models, 2008: U.S. Geological Survey Open-file Report 2008–1155, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1155/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1155/ Singer, D.A., 2011, A lognormal distribution of metal resources: Journal of China University of Geosciences, v. 36, no. 2, p. 1–8. Singer, D.A., and Kouda, Ryoichi, in press, Probabilistic estimates number of undiscovered deposits and their total tonnages in permissive tracts using deposit densities: Natural Resources Research, v., no., p. xy DeYoung, J.H., Jr., and Menzie, W.D., 1999, The changing uses of minerals information—A government perspective, in Otto, James, and Kim, Hyo-Sun, eds., Proceedings of the Workshop on the Sustainable Development of Non-Renewable Resources Towards the 21st Century: New York, October 15-16, 1998: New York, United Nations Development Programme, p. 111-127. Menzie, W.D., DeYoung, J.H., Jr., and Steblez, W.G., 2001, Some implications of changing patterns of mineral consumption: World Mining Congress XVIII at MINExpo INTERNATIONAL 2000 ｮ, Las Vegas, NV, October 9-12, 2000, 34 p. Presented during the World Mining Policies session. (Available as U. S. Geological Survey Open-file Report 03-382, http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/usgspubs/ofr/ofr03382 http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/usgspubs/ofr/ofr03382 Menzie, W.D., Singer, D.A., and DeYoung, Jr., J.D., 2005, Physical resource limitations, in Simpson, David, Toman, M.A., and Ayres, R.U. eds., Scarcity and growth revisited—Natural resources and the environment in the new millennium: Resources for the Future Press, Washington, DC, p. 33–53.