1. Harford County Department of Community Services Consolidated Plan 2008-2012 Needs Hearings David R. Craig Harford County Executive Preserving Harford’s past, promoting Harford’s future Fall 2006

2. Purpose: This session is to review what our County looks like now, and what type of projected growth do we expect for the future.

3. Who is Harford County?

4. Median Household Income Source: Census, American Fact Finder

5. Median Household Income over the last 15 years: Harford County MarylandNational 1990$41,680$50,850$40,272 2000$57,234$52,868$41,994 2005$65,343$61,592$46,252

6. Median Household Income, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

7. Population: Source: U.S. Census

8. Population: Harford County’s Population: 199020002005 182,132218,590237,644 Source: Census, American Fact Finder

9. Population- 65 years and over Both Maryland and Harford County has 11% of their population that is 65 yrs. and older Source: 2005 U.S. Census American Fact Finder

10. 65 yrs. and over population comparison Source: U.S. Census, 2005 American Fact Finder

11. Population- Age Breakdown Source: 2000 Census, American Fact Finder

12. Senior Population Projected The percent change for the senior projected population from 2000-2010 is 46% Source: U.S. Census, Maryland Department of Planning, September 2005.

13. Population- MD Counties Age Breakdown Source: 2000 Census American Fact Finder

14. Population Projections 2000-2010 Source: Claritas Demographic estimates

15. Harford County has a projected 9% increase of population over the next 5 years. Areas with a large percentage increase are: 21017- Belcamp 12% increase 21009-Abingdon 13% increase 21015-Bel Air 16% increase 21050-Forest Hill 20% increase

16. What do Harford County citizens look like?

17. Population Distribution

18. Who lives in Harford County? Within the aggregate population surge, the diversity of the Harford County residents has been increasing rapidly. Population By Race 20002005 Estimates* Caucasians86.8%83.9% African Americans 9.3%10.9% Asian 1.5% 2.0% Hispanic or Latino 1.9% 2.4% American Indian & Alaskan Native.2%.6% Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander.1% 0% Some other race.7% 1.1% Two or more races 1.5% 1.5% *2005 Estimates from 2005 American Community Survey

19. Education levels throughout MD Source: Census, 2000 American Fact Finder

20. Percent of Persons 25 years and over with High School Diploma or more Source: 2000 Census

21. Percent of Persons 25 years and over with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher: Source: 2000 Census

22. Median Household Income Source: Census, American Fact Finder

23. Median Household Income, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

24. Growth in Households by Income Source: American Fact Finder, U.S. Census

25. Median Household Income 199020002005 Howard County$54,348$74,167$91,184 Harford County$41,680$57,234$65,343 Cecil County$36,019$50,510$59,137 Baltimore County $38,837$50,667$56,295 Maryland$50,850$52,868$61,592 National$40,272$41,994$46,252 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

26. Harford County’s Buying Power 1990 Median 2000 Median 2005 Median IncomeIncomeIncome Harford County$41,680$57,234$65,343 Maryland$50,850$52,868$61,592

27. Buying power 199020002005 Harford County$41,680$57,234$65,343 Median Income Source: U.S. Census, American Fact Finder

28. Wealth Distribution Maps 2000 Source: Claritas Demographic estimates

29. Wealth Distribution Maps 2005 Source: Claritas Demographic estimates

30. Wealth Distribution Maps 2010 Source: Claritas Demographic estimates

31. What do we mean when we say low to moderate definition of income- Low to moderate income means household annual income less than 80% of the area median income, as established by HUD.

32. Example of FY06 Income limits 1 person2 person3 person4 person 30%$15,300$17,500$19,650$21,850 60%$30,600$34,920$39,300$43,680 80%$40,800$46,600$52,250$58,250

33. Where do we live by Income: 19902000

34. Who are the low income?

35. Unemployment Rate Source: U.S. Census American Fact Finder

36. Unemployment Rate: 2000 2005Unemployment Rate Harford County 2.1%4.4% Maryland3.2%3.9% United States3.9%5.1%

37. Metro Area Unemployment Rates Source: U.S. Census, American Fact Finder

38. 2000 Unemployment Rate- Harford’s zipcodes Harford County’s 2000 Unemployment Rate is 2.1% Source: U.S. Census, 2000 American Fact Finder

39. Low to moderate income area education levels Source: U.S. Census, American Fact Finder, 2000.

40. Low to moderate income area education levels Source: U.S. Census, American Fact Finder, 2000.

41. Low Income and Minority Population

42. Poverty Levels Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey

43. Poverty Status Source: American Fact Finder, U.S. Census

44. What is 5% poverty? Harford County estimates in 2005 Total population237,644 Total # of families 63,426 5% is below poverty level 3,171 Total # of female head of household 9,023 22.3% is below poverty level2,012 Source: U.S. Census, 2005 American Community Survey

45. Female Head of Household- % of families whose income in the past 12 months is below the poverty level. Source: U.S. Census, 2005 American Community Survey

46. Household Distribution in Harford County U.S. Census, 2005 American Community Survey

47. Map of Poverty location Source: 2000 U.S. Census, American Fact Finder

48. 2005 Drug Treatment Admissions Highlighted areas are low income areas

49. 2005 Drug Treatment Admissions Highlighted areas have the highest admissions

50. 2005 Juvenile Arrests Highlighted areas are low income areas

51. 2005 Juvenile Arrest Highlighted areas have the highest arrests

52. Transportation

53. Transportation statistics for low to moderate income areas Source: U.S. Census, 2000 American Fact Finder Drove Alone CarpoolPublic Transportation (including taxi) 2107877.4%11.8%2.1% 2100175.4%17.4%1.6% 2104077.8%15.3%1.8% 2113076.9%23.1%0.0% 2103480.6%15.0%0.3% 2108582.1%12.1%0.9%

54. Major Employers Government SectorMilitary5,110 Other7,376 Total12,486 Harford County Public Schools4,573 Harford County Government1,572 Harford Community College834 Private Sector Upper Chesapeake Health System2200 Rite Aid MidAtlantic Distribution Center969 Sverdrup Technology, Inc.500 Bechtel National, Inc.300 Saks Fifth Avenue472 EAI Corporation445 SAIC420 Frito-Lay386 Collins & Aikman338 Custom Direct, Inc.329 Source: Harford County Office of Economic Development

55. Major Business Parks Source: Harford County Office of Economic Development

56. Where do we live?

57. Housing Tenure Source: U.S. Census 2000 figures

58. Housing Tenure 2000 Census figures Source: U.S. Census- 2000 data

59. Age of Housing Stock Source: U.S. Census, Fact Finder

60. 2005 Existing Housing Units Source: Claritas Demographic estimates

61. Map of Aged Housing Stock Source: U.S. Census

62. 2005 Residential New Construction, Revised 5/15/2006 Anne Arundel County Harford County Baltimore County Howard County Baltimore City Carroll County One Family- Detached (Single-family) 9969831188744143545 One Family- Attached (Townhome) 57081237059249134 Two Family (duplex, other townhomes) 1323441120 Multi-Family (more than 5 units in bldg.) 139133939743859270 Mobile Homes44140305 Other Shelters 0010621 Totals 30142150199017811243696 Source: Baltimore Metropolitan Council

63. Housing Units Projections 2005-2010 Source: Claritas Demographic estimates

64. The areas with the largest percentage change of housing units are:  Abingdon, 21009:12.72%  Belcamp, 21017:13.17%  Bel Air, 21015:16.89%  Forest Hill, 21050:22.16% As compared to Harford County’s percentage change of 9.79%

68. Price of Housing Sales in Harford County 4 th Quarter 2005 Source: MRIS Local Report

69. In Maryland, 4 th Quarter Average Sales Price of a Home was $319, 442 In Harford County, 4 th Quarter Average Sales Price of a Home was $279,035. Zipcodes with expensive home sales: 21047, Fallston$537,900 21034, Darlington$529,200 21132, Pylesville$439,500 21028, Churchville$409,100 Zipcodes with affordable home sales: 21040, Edgewood$173,700 21001, Aberdeen$201,100 21009, Abingdon$207,968 21017, Belcamp$209,700

70. How much money would you need to purchase an affordable home? Zipcodes with affordable home sales: Home Median HH PriceIncome 21040, Edgewood$173,700$47,527 21001, Aberdeen$201,100$48,997 21009, Abingdon$207,968$72,423 21017, Belcamp$209,700$62,718

71. 2006 Affordable Price by Income Examples: Home PriceMedian HH Income 21040, Edgewood$173,700$47,527 21001, Aberdeen$201,100$48,997 Harford Median Household Income $65,343 Table indicates a 5% down payment, with no more than 25% of income going towards principle and interest. Gross Income Loan Amount Affordable Price Harford Median Home Price Difference $40,000$121,410$127,800$279,035$151,235 $50,000$151,715$159,700$279,035$119,335 $60,000$182,115$191,700$279,035$87,335 $70,000$212,515$223,700$279,035$55,335 $80,000$242,820$255,600$279,035$23,435

72. First Time Home Buyer Affordability in Maryland (1) 85% of median home price (2) Assumes 95% of price borrowed for 30 years (3) 57% of annual MD median household income (4) Based on 25% qualifying ration (5) Ratio of median household income to annual qualifying income, expressed as a percent Source: Maryland Association of Realtors YearStarter Home Price (1) Mortgage Rate Plus PMI Monthly P & I Payment (2) FT Buyer Median Household Income (3) Annual Payment as % of Income Annual Qualifying Income (4) First Time Buyer Affordability Index (5) 2003 $154,9136.50%$930.20$29,81937.4%$44,65066.8 2004 $188,4206.23%$1,099.80$32,67240.4%$52,79061.9 2005 $226,7186.41%$1,348.64$34,41747.0%$64,73553.2

82. Let’s look at the 22% of Harford County Renters

83. Number of Households Baltimore County Anne Arundel County Harford County Frederick County Howard County Washington County Total Households 299,877178,67079,66770,06055,85149,726 Renter Households 97,303 (32%) 43,748 (24%) 17,548 (22%) 16,922 (24%) 12,003 (21%) 17,096 (34%) The National Low Income Housing Coalition’s Annual Out of Reach Report, 2005

84. The following zipcodes have large renter percentages: Aberdeen2100138.1% Havre de Grace2107832.6% Edgewood2104030.7% Belcamp2101729.9% Harford County 22%

85. Renter households Source: The National Low Income Housing Coalition’s Annual Out of Reach Report, 2005 Baltimore County Anne Arundel County Harford County Washington County Frederick County Howard County Maryland Number of Renter Households 97,30343,74817,54817,09616,92212,003627,639 % of Households that are renters 32%24%22%34%24%21%32% Estimated Median Income of Renters $39,818$48,069$40,226$31,883$43,456$53,896$39,701 Rent Affordable to this Median Income $995$1,202$1,006$797$1,086$1,347$993 Estimate Number of Renters Unable to afford a 2 Bedroom FMR 48%39%47%39%55%34%51%

86. Rental Housing Costs Income needed to afford 2 bedroom FMR- Fair Market Rent- established by HUD The National Low Income Housing Coalition’s Annual Out of Reach Report, 2005 Harford CountyMaryland Housing Cost for a 2 Bedroom FMR $950$1,020 Income needed to afford 2 Bedroom FMR $38,000$40,808 Estimated Median Income of Renters $40,226$39,701 Harford County Median Income$65,343$61,592

87. Hourly wage necessary to afford 2BR FMR Harford CountyMD 1 person$18.27 @ 40 hrs. week $19.62 2 person$ 9.14 @ 40 hrs. week $ 9.81

88. Map of Current Affordable Rental Units

89. Harford County’s Current Specialized Senior Housing Units In Harford County # of facilities Nursing Homes 5 Senior Citizen Housing Facilities15 Assisted Living Facilities49

90. Total number of senior units Total number of beds Nursing Homes 5 Facilities709 Senior Citizen Housing 15 Facilities1059 Assisted Living 49 Facilities665

91. Summary Harford’s highest projected growth areas include: Bel Air, Edgewood, Forest Hill, Belcamp, Abingdon, and Joppa. Harford County’s median household income has grown at a more accelerated rate than both state and national levels.

92. Despite income going up, Harford residents have less per capita income (spending power) in 2005 than in 2000 or 1990. Harford’s low income areas have become more concentrated by shifting into four major clusters.

93. Harford’s unemployment rate for 2005 exceeded the 2005 unemployment rate for the State of Maryland. Harford’s highest areas of unemployment mirror the low to moderate income areas including: Edgewood, Havre de Grace, Whiteford, Darlington, and Aberdeen.

94. Harford County’s poverty level remains very low at less than four percent; however, the number of female head of households living in poverty exceeds Maryland averages and those of surrounding counties at over twenty percent. Nearly eighty percent of Harford County’s residents are home owners, outpacing both Maryland and national numbers.

95. Harford’s housing growth through 2010 will impact the following areas most: Abingdon, Belcamp, Bel Air, and Forest Hill. In Maryland, the average sales price of a home was $319,442 as compared to Harford County at $279,035.

96. Harford County Department of Community Services Consolidated Plan 2008-2012 Needs Hearings David R. Craig Harford County Executive Preserving Harford’s past, promoting Harford’s future Fall 2006