1. 飛彈威脅 ? 飛彈威脅 ? Missile Threat: To What Extent? 飛彈防禦：攔截 ? 飛彈防禦：攔截 ? Missile Defense: Interception? 飛彈防禦：消極作為 ? 飛彈防禦：消極作為 ? Missile Defense: Passive? 飛彈防禦：積極作為 ? 飛彈防禦：積極作為 ? Missile Defense: Aggressive? 第十週 /Week 10 政策議題（ 1 ）飛彈與飛彈防禦 Policy Issue I: Missile and Missile Defense

2. Shlapak, David A., David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson. 2009. “ Chapter 3 Missiles over the Strait: China ’ s Short- Range Ballistic Missile Force. ” A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 31-52. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND _MG888.pdf Shlapak, David A., David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson. 2009. “ Chapter 3 Missiles over the Strait: China ’ s Short- Range Ballistic Missile Force. ” A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 31-52. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND _MG888.pdf http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND _MG888.pdf http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND _MG888.pdf Shlapak, David A., David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson. 2009. “ Appendix Missile Attacks on Economic Targets on Taiwan, ” A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 145-149. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf Shlapak, David A., David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson. 2009. “ Appendix Missile Attacks on Economic Targets on Taiwan, ” A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 145-149. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf Readings…

3. 飛彈威脅 ? Missile Threat: To What Extent? 300km 600km 200km

4. 飛彈威脅 ? Missile Threat: To What Extent? http://img522.imageshack.us/f/husstatusquo2008e1400xz3.png/http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/taiwan-china-missile.jpg BallisticMissilesCruiseMissiles 30~600+m<10m 1.0M>>6.0M

5. 飛彈威脅 ? Missile Threat: To What Extent? 易於擊中 ? Easy To Hit? 損害 ? Damage? 1 2 3 1 2 3

6. http://img135.imageshack.us/i/dresdenaerialviewfebruafy0.jpg/ Target: Cities http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/the-battle-of-the-bulge-timeline-18.jpg http://www.zenza.se/vw/vp0001_b.jpg 3,000 10,000 10,000 23,000 130,000

7. http://www.unesco.org/webworld/other/war_archives/photo12g.gif Target:Industries http://www.rsea.gov.tw/Report/img/1869head.jpg http://www.taipower.com.tw/TaipowerWeb//upload/images/11/powerimage.gif 721

8. http://www.microworks.net/pacific/special/pearl_harbor_1941.jpg Target: Armed Forces http://qualityjunkyard.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/pearl-harbor-bombing-7th-december-1941-12.jpg http://warphotos.basnetworks.net/photos/galleries/World_War_Two/Pearl_Harbour_Raid_-_December_7th_1941/burned_out_p-40.jpg

9. 彈道飛彈防禦：攔截 ? Missile Defense: Interception? http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/19/12000205-pac3-dt5i202-s.jpg/765px-12000205-pac3-dt5i202-s.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/1000205-pac3-dt5i102-s.jpg http://www.acig.org/artman/uploads/pac3.jpg Patriot Advanced Capability 3

10. http://www.nihaotw.com/gfxgx/sp/wqhg/200811/W020081124475550629855.jpg http://digilander.libero.it/bunkeroil/quirnheim2.jpg1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 http://news.xinhuanet.com/tai_gang_ao/2007-01/24/xin_0020104240926687271085.gif 8x16x9=1,152

11. 命中率偏低 命中率偏低 Low Accuracy 防禦範圍有限 防禦範圍有限 Limited in Defense Footprint 攔截飛彈造價高於來襲飛彈 攔截飛彈造價高於來襲飛彈 Unit Cost higher than Incoming Missile 彈道飛彈防禦無用 ? Doomed to Fail? NOT REALLY

12. http://www.fas.org/news/china/2000/df15.jpg

13. 防護範圍來看250 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 1,152 250X5

14. http://cdn.picapp.com/ftp/Images/1/a/2/3/6a.JPG 其他選擇 Other Options http://www.army-technology.com/projects/thaad/images/Thaad_4.jpg SM-3 THAAD

15. 保護對象來看250 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 /9

16. 「一般」而言：無效 「一般」而言：無效 In “General” : Yes 不過在短期內還能保護武裝部隊 不過在短期內還能保護武裝部隊 Armed Forces In the Short-term 且在長期來看仍能保護地面部隊 … 且在長期來看仍能保護地面部隊 … Ground Forces In the Long-term … 彈道飛彈防禦無用 ? Doomed to Fail?

17. 巡弋飛彈防禦：攔截 ? Missile Defense: Interception http://www.armybase.us/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/tactical-tomahawk-block-iv-cruise-missile-is-escorted-by-a-navy-f-14-tomcat-fighter.jpg 防禦範圍有限 ? 防禦範圍有限 ? Limited in Defense Footprint 攔截飛彈造價高於來襲飛彈 ? 攔截飛彈造價高於來襲飛彈 ? Unit Cost higher than Incoming Missile http://www.rheinmetall-defence.com/img/RDI_SaP_skyguard.jpg NOT REALLY

18. http://www.globalmil.com/uploads/allimg/100307/1_221808_1.jpg

19. 防護範圍來看165 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 1,152 165X7

20. http://www.brianmicklethwait.com/images/uploads/SpitfireV1.jpg 其他選擇 Other Options http://lh5.ggpht.com/_cTaLGgz4Ru8/TCMIieUIMzI/AAAAAAAASEM/PozvDvT9-tU/E-2T.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_w1Te9kELSl8/SaKXmMfAMYI/AAAAAAAABIY/wSbg47I9yVo/s400/AIM-120+Advanced+Medium-Range+Air-to-Air+Missile.jpg

21. 保護對象來看165 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 /9

22. 巡弋飛彈防禦也無用 ? Doomed to Fail? http://www.armybase.us/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/tactical-tomahawk-block-iv-cruise-missile-is-escorted-by-a-navy-f-14-tomcat-fighter.jpg 「一般」而言無效 「一般」而言無效 In “General”: Yes 不過在短期內還能保護武裝部隊 不過在短期內還能保護武裝部隊 Armed Forces In the Short-term 且在長期來看仍能保護地面部隊 … 且在長期來看仍能保護地面部隊 … Ground Forces In the Long-term …

23. 飛彈防禦：消極作為 ? Missile Defense: Passive? http://image1.club.sohu.com/pic/fa/4b/90f86fb0ea1adb01133d8e20befa4bfa.jpg 加固 Hardening 加固 Hardening 備份 Redundancy 備份 Redundancy 疏散 Dispersion 疏散 Dispersion 偽裝 Camouflage 偽裝 Camouflage 誘餌 Decoy 誘餌 Decoy 機動 Mobilizing 機動 Mobilizing

24. http://www.mccullagh.org/db9/950-22/moss-landing-power-plant.jpg http://www.tagala.tw/lifetype/gallery/56/1241-21.JPG Target:Industries 加固 Hardening 備份 Redundancy 疏散 Dispersion 偽裝 Camouflage 誘餌 Decoy 機動 Mobilizing

25. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/7000/7268/ISS014-E-7480_lrg.jpg Target: “Armed Forces” 加固 Hardening 備份 Redundancy 疏散 Dispersion 偽裝 Camouflage 誘餌 Decoy 機動 Mobilizing Differed…… http://www.defence.govt.nz/images/2008-ltdp-devonport.jpg http://www.aed.usace.army.mil/extrememakeover/May-2003-Polecharki-ANA_res.jpg

26. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7c/Baselapallice08.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/U-Boat_Pen_Grand_Slammed.jpg http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2160/2231240743_8499e5bdc4.jpg 船艦 Fighting Ships http://big5.eastday.com:82/gate/big5/mil.eastday.com/eastday/mil/node62186/node62664/node62666/node142224/images/00682402.jpg

27. http://images.china.cn/site1000/20070516/U1596P27T1D444377F318DT20070516004324.jpg http://media.photobucket.com/image/JAS39/davis0623/JAS-39plus.jpg http://home.hiwaay.net/~craigg/g4c/lakenheath-fighter.jpg 戰機Fighter-Aircraft http://www.richard-seaman.com/Wallpaper/Aircraft/Attack/HarrierNearGround.jpg http://www.thaitechnics.com/aircraft/tg2/f35b_2.jpg

28. http://www.1gnc.de/history/history2006/jagged_sword_final/Command_post_1gnc.jpg http://www.noahshachtman.com/images/command%20post.jpg http://www.ausairpower.net/S-400-Triumf-Command-Post-1S.jpg http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/military-camouflage-7.jpg 地面部隊 Ground Troops http://www.saabgroup.com/NR/rdonlyres/586885C8-ED0C-4FE5-948B-F34756518BD4/3712/untitled1.jpg

29. http://homepage18.seed.net.tw/cgi/file_view.pl/TH.LAMyA3 Objection! No place to hide! http://www.cyhg.gov.tw/16/information/chiayi15/jpg/hospital.jpg

30. 飛彈防禦：積極作為 ? Missile Defense: Aggressive? http://www.specialoperations.com/Focus/SCUD_Hunt/scud.jpg https://jspivey.wikispaces.com/file/view/gulf_war.jpg/34334557 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e7/SCUD_2.JPG/800px-SCUD_2.JPG

31. http://anaj.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/kosovo.jpg http://www.vagabondjourney.com/2009-travel-photos/09-37-war-in-balkans.jpg http://croatia.org/crown/content_images/vukovar/heroji/1/vukovar_heroes_Vukovar-006.jpg KOSOVO, 1999 KOSOVO, 1999

32. http://www.metrocollective.org/home/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/lebanon.jpg http://kharita.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/transport_vitalsites_aug111.jpg http://www.janes.com/aerospace/military/news/jdw/jdw031117_1_p.jpg http://infosyiah.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/hizbullah.jpg Lebanon, 2006 Lebanon, 2006

33. http://www.thedailysheeple.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/clubK.jpghttp://cdnpullz.defencetalk.com/wp-content/themes/dtstyle/scripts/timthumb.php?src=http://www.defencetalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/bomb-inbox-cruisemissile-Klub-K-3M-54TE.jpg&w=375&h=245&zc=1 http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_C4vLmEvPnwo/TMr-CH-f33I/AAAAAAAARjw/RflVYGgL3Yg/s1600/Russian+missile+system+on+lorry.jpg http://gdb.rferl.org/5D558BE3-2283-46FF-A288-DBAD7EEBC27A_mw800_mh600_s.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f2zvm6pIg04/Tms5sJMlMoI/AAAAAAAAKAg/8Lh5TNpSByo/s320/club-k_container_missile_system_2011_maks_makc_01.jpg Future…. HOW to Find? Future…. HOW to Find?

34. 飛彈防禦：攔截 ? 飛彈防禦：攔截 ? Missile Defense: Interception? 飛彈防禦：消極作為 ? 飛彈防禦：消極作為 ? Missile Defense: Passive? 飛彈防禦：積極作為 ? 飛彈防禦：積極作為 ? Missile Defense: Aggressive? 是飛彈防禦也是防空 !! 飛彈威脅目前還不是真的那麼強大，對武裝部隊而言，暫且還只是破門鎚的角色，但此一威脅遲早會強大到 只剩地面部隊能有效作戰的程度 …..