1. 1.2 Social and environmental systems elements in REDD+ Diane Russell, USAID Forestry and Biodiversity Office and Chad Dear, AAAS Fellow, USAID Global Development Lab

2. “When you are confronted by any complex social system … with things about it that you’re dissatisfied with and anxious to fix, you cannot just step in and set about fixing with much hope of helping. This is one of the sore discouragements of our time.” –Lewis Thomas

3. Conventional Wisdom Vs. Unintended Consequences Some examples

4. Conventional wisdom Job training programs create jobs Lack of jobs not related to lack of trained people Unintended consequence

5. Conventional wisdom Food aid increases food security Food aid may undermine markets and community safety nets Unintended consequence

6. Conventional wisdom Reducing shifting cultivation reduces deforestation Farmers without alternatives set fire to forest Unintended consequence

7. Why “obvious” solutions fail What are some other examples of conventional wisdom initiatives that don’t work as intended? Why did they fail?

8. Why “obvious” solutions fail They may succeed in the short run but Short-term gains are undermined by long-term impacts Negative consequences and backlash are unforeseen Impacts can be undone by “outside forces” if we can’t see the link

9. Systems thinking to the rescue Systems Thinking (ST) complements and links sectoral analysis (GHG flows, biodiversity status, demographic trends, economic trends, stakeholder analysis) ST helps us produce a model to understand links among variables and map impact pathways (how actions will lead to change)

10. globalchange.mit.edu

11. Land Policy Stressors/ Root Causes Threats Climate Change Market dynamics Land tenure and property rights Direct impacts Changing species composition Loss of forest cover, fragmentation REDD+ conceptual model Drivers Demographics Unsustainable wood extraction Weather variability/ drought Unsustainable agriculture Infrastructure development Reduced emissions and enhanced carbon stocks

12. System characteristics Systems change in unpredictable ways Changing individual pieces in a system is not likely to lead to sustainable change If you try to change one piece in a system, other forces parts may counter the change

13. Land Policy Stressors/ Root Causes Threats Reduced emissions and enhanced carbon stocks Climate Change Market dynamics Land tenure and property rights Direct impacts Changing species composition Loss of forest cover, fragmentation REDD+ conceptual model Drivers Demographics Unsustainable wood extraction Weather variability/ drought Unsustainable agriculture Wild Card! Infrastructure development

14. Simplified Mental Model Credit: http://tynansylvester.com/2013/06/the-simulation-dream/

15. Exercise 1.2 Building your Conceptual Model At each of your tables you will build a more detailed conceptual model for REDD+, based around the example given and your own experiences: –By brainstorming potential: Stressors/ Root causes Threats to and drivers of deforestation/afforestation Direct impacts on the status of the forests and natural resources –Then building your own model at your table Compare and contrast with the other groups in the room Then we will begin building a master model for the plenary group synthesizing and consolidating your ideas from each group