1. Data holdings, global analyses and future plans for the Future of Marine Animal Populations (FMAP) project Daniel Ricard 1, Zoey Zahorodny 2, Heike K. Lotze 3, Ian Jonsen 4 and Boris Worm 3 1 Ph.D. Candidate, Dept. of Biology, Dalhousie University (ricardd@mathstat.dal.ca) 2 FMAP Project Manager, Dalhousie University (zoey@mathstat.dal.ca) 3 FMAP Principle Investigator, Dalhousie University (hlotze@dal.ca, bworm@dal.ca) 4 FMAP Principle Investigator, DFO Maritimes (JonsenI@mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca) FMAP attempts to describe and synthesize globally changing patterns of species abundance, distribution, and diversity, and to model the effects of fishing, climate change and other key variables on those patterns. This work is done across ocean realms and with an emphasis on understanding past changes and predicting future scenarios. FMAP Mission Statement Data holdings The data holdings of FMAP come from numerous sources. While scientific fisheries surveys have historically been the main source of information for the marine environment, new technological advances provide researchers with a wealth of other data. These include satellite-derived data to analyze animal movement, data from passive sensors and ships-of-opportunity data. FMAP researchers often combine data from seemingly disparate sources in order to discover persistent patterns of species distribution, abundance and diversity, and their ecological drivers. This sometimes poses computational and statistical challenges that must be addressed in a robust manner. Breed, G., Jonsen, I., Myers, R.A., Bowen, W.D. and M.L. Leonard. 2007. Behaviour discriminating state-space analyses reveal foraging grounds and sex differences in at-sea spatial behaviour of adult grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). Submitted to Ecology. James, M. C., Sherrill-Mix, S. A., and R. A. Myers. 2007. Population characteristics and seasonal migrations of leatherback sea turtles at high latitudes. Marine Ecology Progress Series 337: 245-254. Jonsen, I. D., Myers, R. A., and M. C. James. 2007. Identifying leatherback turtle foraging behaviour from satellite telemetry using a switching state- space model. Marine Ecology Progress Series 337: 255-264. Lotze, H.K. et al. (2006) Depletion, degradation, and recovery potential of estuaries and coastal seas. Science 312:1806-1809 Mora, C., R. Metzger, A. Roll, and R.A. Myers. 2007. Experimental simulations about the effects of overexploitation and habitat fragmentation on populations facing environmental warming. Proceedings of the Royal Society, B 274(1613) 1023-1028. Myers, R.A., J.K. Baum, T.D. Shepherd, S.P. Powers, and C.H. Peterson. 2007. Cascading effects of the loss of apex predatory sharks from a coastal ocean. Science 315:1846-1850 Tittensor, D.P., Micheli, F., Nystrom, M., and B. Worm. 2007. Human impacts on the species-area relationship in reef fish assemblages. Ecology Letters 10(9):760-72 Worm, B., Sandow, M., Oschlies, A., Lotze, H.K. and R.A. Myers. 2005. Global patterns of predator diversity in the open oceans. Science. 309: 1365- 1369 Future of Marine Animal Populations For more information, please visit the FMAP website at http://www.fmap.ca or contact the FMAP project manager Zoey Zahorodny by email (zoey@mathstat.dal.ca) FMAP Research Focus Spatial distribution and movements of tagged animals Global patterns of marine biodiversity Long-term changes in ocean ecosystems Literature cited : The analyses conducted as part of FMAP are global in nature. Recent peer-reviewed publications have demonstrated: a loss of marine biodiversity across the world’s oceans (Worm et al. 2005, Lotze et al. 2006, Tittensor et al. 2007) new methods to analyze animal tracking data that provide insights into the feeding ecology of sea turtles and grey seals (James et al. 2007, Jonsen et. al. 2007, Breed et al. (submitted 2007)) further evidence for cascading and cumulative impacts of anthropogenic activities on marine ecosystems (Mora et al. 2007, Myers et al. 2007) The above analyses often require the development of new statistical methods that deal with the fact that data from numerous sources are brought together in a single analysis. Statistically sound global analyses Future plans Milestones to be achieved in the next year include: publication of an updated stock-recruitment database (based on Ransom Myers’s earlier work) use of Ecological Metadata Language (EML) for documenting the different FMAP sub-projects and to facilitate the dissemination of publications, data and computer code used in analyses FMAP researchers aim to develop new analytical techniques that will facilitate the use of global information system such as OBIS to conduct marine biodiversity research. While the collection and archiving of large datasets is an important part of biodiversity research, the analysis of these data will ultimately interpret the available information, guide our decision-making and inform marine science and policy at a global level. Picture credits: © All rights reserved, user rHINOx on www.flickr.com Location: Cocos Island, Costa Rica In living memory of the late Dr. Ransom A. Myers (RAM), a passionate advocate of marine conservation who spearheaded this project.