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ABSA Asset Management Mariette Warner Listed Property Fund Manager Media Presentation 11 October 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "ABSA Asset Management Mariette Warner Listed Property Fund Manager Media Presentation 11 October 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 ABSA Asset Management Mariette Warner Listed Property Fund Manager Media Presentation 11 October 2012

2 Agenda  The great historical story  The major cycles  Where we are now  New listings  Prospects going forward

3 Relative Performance Compound Average Annual Returns to end 2011 and YTD Source: Inet Bridge and ABAM 2002 market cap R13 billion, market cap Oct 2012 R197 billion On a relative basis it has tripled in size from 1% to 3% of the ALSI. Asset Class1 Year3 Years5 Years9 Years 2012 YT 30 Sept SA Listed Property Index 8.9%17.2%14.3%25.0%31.1% All Bond Index 8.8% 7.4% 8.6% 10.2%13.0% STEFI Comp. Index 5.7% 7.3% 8.5% 8.6%4.1% All Share Index 2.6% 17.3% 8.1% 18.1%12.1%

4 The Major Cycles: Long Bond Yields and GDP Growth January 2003 to Sept 2012 Long bond yield range10.0% to 6.9% GDP growth range 6.2% to -2.1% Long Bond YieldsGDP Growth (constant prices) Source: Inet Bridge

5 Property Rental Cycles Office Market Rental Trends (Quarterly Moving Average) Source: Rode’s Time Series and ABAM Sandton A grade Sandton B grade Bryanston B grade Rivonia B grade

6 GDP Growth and Office Rentals GDP Growth (LHS)Bryanston B Grade Office Rentals (RHS) Source: Inet Bridge and ABAM

7 Long Term Performance SA Listed Property Index (based to 100) Source: Inet Bridge and ABAM Falling bond yields Weak earnings growth High real earnings growth Volatile bond market Lower earnings growth Falling bond yields Global quest for yield

8 Real Earnings Growth 2007 - 2011 5 year cagr RESCPLHYPACPGRTRDFFPTSYCOCTSAC Nominal 15.312.812.2 9.8 8.9 7.3 6.5 5.9 5.0 -2.3 Inflation 6.9 Real 8.4 5.9 5.3 2.9 2.0 0.4-0.4 -1.9 -9.2 Source: Inet Bridge and ABAM

9 Earnings Growth Impact Price Based to 100 (2007 – 8 Oct 2012) Divergent Growth – Ability to Forecast Earnings is Paramount Source: Inet Bridge and ABAM RES220 GRT177 SAC 90

10 Where we are Now  Long bond yields are low  The economy is sluggish  Fundamentals in the property market are static  Growth rates in income distributions from listed property portfolios have declined, but in line with inflation on average  The quest for yield continues  Volatile bonds and currency

11 Inflation Cycle Real Bond Yields Source: Inet Bridge and ABAM

12 Interest Rate Cycle Listed Property and Long Bond Yields Source: Inet Bridge and ABAM Long bond yield Listed property:PUT Index SAPY Index Good earnings growth Poor earnings growth

13 The Earnings Cycle % Change in Income Distributions p.a. 1994 - 2011 Fountainhead Property Trust as a Proxy for the Sector Source: Inet Bridge

14 2012 Company Results CompanyDistribution Growth CompanyDistribution Growth Resilient+10.4%Capital+6.1% Octodec+9.5%SA Corporate+5.7% Hyprop+9.4%Fortress A+5.0% Sycom+6.4%Fountainhead+1.0% Growthpoint+6.1%Premium-1.0% Vukile+6.1%Emira-2.5% Acucap+6.1%RedefineUnbundling Source: Company publications

15 Listed Property Index Year to Date Quest for Yield Continues to Drive Prices Listed Property Index (LHS) Long Bond Yield (RHS)

16 New Listings CompanyMarket Cap Rmill Listing DateComment Investec Prop Fund2,890April 20113% ahead of forecast Rebosis2,930May 20114% below forecast Vunani1,164Aug 20113.5% ahead of forecast Dipula A & B1,840Aug 2011In line with forecast Arrowhead A & B1,675Dec 2011Too soon to analyse Synergy A & B1,656Dec 2011Too soon to analyse Annuity532May 2012Very recent listing Ascension A & B802June 2012Very recent listing  Concentrated portfolios  External management companies  Small market caps  Liquidity Maturity going forward will create opportunities Source: Inet Bridge and Company Information

17  Forward yield of 6.8% is similar to 10 year bonds  Growing income stream, given astute share selection  Vacancies have stabilised  Rising bond yields are negative for listed property prices  Should outperform bonds over 12 months, so it has a place in a balanced portfolio  Yield growing over time is better than cash  Income dependent investors need to understand the capital volatility  An entry point now needs a long term view Prospects and Investment Risks


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