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Financial stability report 2007:1 24 May 2007. CHAPTER 1 Financial markets.

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Presentation on theme: "Financial stability report 2007:1 24 May 2007. CHAPTER 1 Financial markets."— Presentation transcript:

1 Financial stability report 2007:1 24 May 2007

2 CHAPTER 1 Financial markets

3 Ten-year government bond rates Per cent Chart 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin

4 Stock markets Index, 2 January 2002 = 100 Chart 1:2 Source: Reuters EcoWin

5 P/E ratios Chart 1:3 Source: Reuters EcoWin

6 Implied stock-market volatility Per cent Chart 1:4 Source: Bloomberg

7 Global level of bankruptcies Percentage of all companies rated Ba/BBB or lower Chart 1:5 Source: Reuters EcoWin

8 High-yield corporate bond spreads in Europe and the United States Percentage points Chart 1:6 Source: Reuters EcoWin

9 Premia in CDS indices Basis points Chart 1:7 Source: Bloomberg

10 Households with payment problems in the US house mortgage market Per cent, seasonally adjusted Chart B1 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

11 Premia for credit derivatives on US house mortgage loans Basis points Chart B2 Source: JP Morgan Note. Loans classified as BBB−.

12 Credit spreads for bonds issued by emerging-market economies Percentage points Chart 1:8 Source: Bloomberg

13 Oil price and commodity price index USD per barrel and index, January 2002=100 Chart 1:9 Sources: Reuters EcoWin och The Economist

14 GDP growth Percentage annual rate Chart B3 Source: Reuters EcoWin

15 Balance on current account Per cent of GDP Chart B4 Source: Reuters EcoWin

16 HICP inflation Percentage 12-month rate Chart B5 Source: Eurostat

17 Real interbank interest rates Per cent Chart B6 Source: Reuters EcoWin

18 Corporate loan stocks in the Baltic states and Sweden Per cent Chart B7 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin

19 Household sector loan stocks in the Baltic states and Sweden Per cent Chart B8 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin

20 CHAPTER 2 The Swedish banks´ borrowers

21 Household borrowing Percentage 12-month change Chart 2:1 Source: The Riksbank

22 Duration of fixed interest periods for new house mortgage loans Per cent Chart 2:2 Source: The Riksbank

23 Household debt and post-tax interest expenditure in relation to disposable income Per cent Chart 2:3 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

24 House prices and mortgage debt Percentage annual change Chart 2:4 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

25 Households below the margin, impaired loans and potential loan losses Per cent Chart 2:5 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank 0 2 4 6 8 10 2000200120022003200420052006 (forecast) Households below the marginImpaired loansPotential loan losses

26 Proportions of debt, financial wealth and real wealth held by the indebted households in each income group Per cent Chart 2:6 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

27 Household sector loan stocks in the Baltic states and Sweden Per cent Chart 2:7 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin

28 Nominal and real house price increases 2000 – 2006 in Nordic countries and the Baltic states Per cent Chart 2:8 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin

29 Nominal and real house price increases 2000 – 2006 in Nordic countries and the Baltic states Per cent Chart B9 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

30 Corporate borrowing from credit institutions Percentage twelve-month change, moving three month average Chart 2:9 Source: The Riksbank

31 Corporate loans from securities markets and credit institutions SEK billion Chart 2:10 Source: The Riksbank

32 Ratio of debt to total assets in listed companies Per cent of all listed companies Chart 2:11 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

33 Number of corporate defaults by company size Twelve-month moving average Chart 2:12 Source: Statistics Sweden

34 Expected default frequency (EDF) by industry for listed non-financial companies Per cent Chart 2:13 Source: Moody’s KMV

35 Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed non-financial companies Per cent Chart 2:14 Source: Moody’s KMV

36 Listed companies with a default probability of 1 per cent or more Per cent of all listed companies Chart 2:15 Sources: Moody´s KMV and the Riksbank

37 Expected default frequency (EDF), outcomes and forecast with the Riksbank’s main scenario Per cent Chart 2:16 Sources: National central banks

38 Corporate borrowing from credit institutions in the Baltic states Percentage 12-month change Chart 2:17 Sources: National central banks

39 Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed property companies Per cent Chart 2:18 Source: Moody´s KMV

40 Real prices for office premises in central locations Index 1981 = 100 Chart 2:19 Sources: Newsec AB and the Riksbank

41 Vacancy rates for office premises in central locations Per cent Chart 2:20 Sources: Newsec AB and the Riksbank

42 Average direct yield required for office premises in central locations Per cent Chart 2:21 Sources: Newsec AB and EcoWin

43 Chapter 3 Developments in the banks

44 Composition of pre-tax return on equity Percentage points Chart 3:1 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

45 Profit before loan losses and net loan losses in the major banks Four-quarter totals, SEK billion, 2007 prices Chart 3:2 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

46 Implied volatility of bank equity Per cent, moving 10-day average Chart 3:3 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

47 The major banks’ securities-related commission income and Stockholm Stock Exchange turnover SEK million and index: 1997=100 Sources: Banks reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Chart 3:4

48 Cost efficiency of the major Swedish banks Per cent Chart 3:5 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

49 Net interest margin and spreads for the major banks on deposits, bank loans and mortgage loans Per cent, moving 4-quarter average Chart B10 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

50 Lending by credit institutions to the corporate sector in Sweden Per cent, moving 4-quarter average Chart 3:6 Source: The Riksbank

51 Geographical composition of lending December 2006, per cent Chart 3:7 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

52 Lending to the general public in Sweden and abroad Percentage annual change, 2007 Q1 Chart 3:8 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

53 Provisions for incurred and probable loan losses Per cent of loan stock, accumulated over four quarters Chart 3:9 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

54 Tier 1 capital ratios of the four major Swedish banks Per cent Chart 3:10 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

55 The major Swedish banks’ deposits, lending and deposit deficit SEK billion Chart 3:11 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

56 Interest-bearing assets and liabilities December 2006, SEK billion Chart 3:12 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

57 The lowest Tier 1 capital ratio among the other three major Swedish banks if the fourth has suspended payments Per cent Chart 3:13 Source: The Riksbank

58 Post-tax returns on equity in the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Per cent Chart 3:14 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

59 Net interest and commission incomes for the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Percentage annual change, accumulated over four quarters Chart 3:15 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

60 Net loan losses in relation to loan stocks for the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Per cent Chart 3:16 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

61 Tier 1 capital ratios of the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Per cent Chart 3:17 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

62 Bank profits with the scenario for the Baltic states Expected profit less the change in expected losses, SEK million Chart 3:18 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

63 Cover for credit risk with the scenario for the Baltic states Per cent Chart 3:19 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

64 Bank profits in the scenario with a turn in the credit cycle Expected profit less the change in expected losses, SEK million Chart 3:20 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

65 Cover for credit risk in the scenario with a turn in the credit cycle Per cent Chart 3:21 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

66 CHAPTER 4 The financial infrastructure

67 Evaluation of the financial infrastructure Figur 4:1

68 ARTICLE Trading activity in credit derivatives and implications for financial stability

69 Outward and inward integration in the EU25 bank sector at end 2005 Chart 1 Source: ECB and the Riksbank


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