1. Sources for oil into the sea

2. Continuous decline in tanker incidents

3. Tanker incident by cause 1978-2002

4. 131 tanker incident 2001

5. Port State Control All ships versus tankers

6. erik.ranheim@intertanko.com Madrid 27 June 2002 International Association of Independent Tanker Owners S afe T ransport, C lean S eas, F ree C ompetition

7. The state of the industry  S tatus  P erformance  M arket

8. The state of the industry Status  V ital to world economy  A nonymous  I mproved ralations to other industry players

9. Accountable to society

11. Performance

12. Accidental oil pollution reduced by 78% in the 90s

13. No major spill since Erika

14. US oil spills into the sea - gallons

15. US oil spills into the sea - number

16. Port State Control- detention ratio All ships versus tankers

17. Marine Quality Assurance System Clear and credible???

18. Transparency benefit the good operators

19. Oil companies reducing fleets

20. Suezmax fleet Ownership and Employment

21. Aframax fleet Ownership and Employment

22. The state of the industry market  L ow freight market, declining prices  N o driving forces in the oil market  T onnage balance relatively tight, high scrapping

23. Tanker spot rates Jan 2000 - June 2002

24. Crude oil seaborne trade - Indices

25. Europe

27. JAPAN

28. USA

30. Oil consumption in selected Asian countries

31. OPEC/non-OPEC crude oil production 1971-2002 (Proj.)

32. FSU oil exports

33. N Sea oil production, mbd

34. Rates easy chemicals (Clarkson)

35. Seaborne chemical trades - mil tonnes Source: Drewry

36. Chemical tanker fleet development – no.

37. Supply

38. ERIKA I – Phase out

39. Tanker deliveries and deletions 10-80,000 dwt Aframaxes Suezmaxes VLCCs 10-80,000 dwt 44 68 160 132

40. Newbuilding prices

41. Aframaxprice in Korea, 1992-June-02

42. Aframax price in Japan, 1992-June-02

43. Modernisation tankers

44. Prospects

45. Source: Fearnleys, IEA, INTERTANKO Will the strong growth continue?

46. Morgan Stanley Capital Index 1990-2002

47. ..added uncertainty.... Cheney Report…US National Energy Policy..

48. Source: BMW WWWsite Oil - a Sunset Industry? The Future is Here Today ” P owered with S un and w ater The BMW 750hL, the youngest member of the BMW hydrogen vehicle family”

49.  B leak short term outlook, but  T anker market conditions change fast  P ossible scenarios;  Invasion Iraq, terrorism, debt problems, unilateralism, more short haul crude, or  International co-operation, reduced tension, moderate oil price, successful G7 efforts to stimulate the economy… Looking ahead