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Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the.

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Presentation on theme: "Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the."— Presentation transcript:

1 Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws which the United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices. INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti- trust/Competition Law Guidelines.

2 The tanker market _ some issues to consider Manager Research and Projects NEP - Oslo 6 October 2010

3 Tanker market Low freight rates Many deliveries of new tankers SH hull tankers marginal Surplus shibuilding capacity building up? Positive economic growth but uncertainty High oil price

4 Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO $/day Average tanker freight rates based on the Baltic rates – until 01 October Current levels

5 World GDP and oil demand change Source. IMF/BP/IEA/Fearnleys %

6 Oil demand

7 World oil demand mbd Source. IEA Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW** 1Q06-4Q11 Total oil demand mbd

8 Source: IEA European crude oil import by source mbd – import by sourcembd total import

9 Source: IEA/INTERTANKO N America crude oil import by source Mbd – import by sourceMbd total import

10 Source: IEA/INTERTANKO OECD Pacific crude oil import by source mbd – import by sourcembd total import

11 Source: IEA Chinese crude oil demand and production mbd

12 Source; IEA Middle East oil production Jan to Aug mbd

13 Source: INTERTANKO/IEA FSU petroleum export, crude oil by outlet and total products mbd Russian oil production reached a record of 10.16M barrels per day in September

14 Source; EIA/IEA/SAJ Product import mbd

15 Source: IEA European product import by source mbd – import by sourcembd total import

16 Source: EIA US gasoline import mbd

17 Source; EIA US product export mbd

18 Source: BP/INTERTANKO Oil consumption - by product group % share Northern winter season less prevalent European fuel oil share of total:10% US fuel oil share of total: 3%

19 Tanker supply

20 Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO $ bn investment Orders for new tankers - bn $ m dwt , 15 years – inv $109 bn, yearly average $7.2 bn Yrl av $20 bn Yrl av $43 bn

21 Tanker fleet development m dwt number Increase , ,999 dwt : 10% 60, ,999 dwt : 20% 80, ,999 dwt : 14% 120, ,999 dwt : 40% +200,000 dwt : 30% Total 10,000 dwt + : 23% Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010 which are moved to 2012

22 Sales for decommissioning and conversion of tankers and combos Source: Various /INTERTANKO m dwt

23 Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Tankers > 10,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010 which are moved to 2012 Fleet 3, m dwt 100% Orderbook “ 28% of fleet Not DH ” 7% of fleet

24 Tanker Prices & shipyard capacity

25 Source: Clarkson Tanker newbuilding prices m $

26 World shipyards capacity, deliveries and utilisation rates m cgt Source: Worldyards

27 Short term considerations

28 Industry OECD oil stocks Days forward demand

29 Floating storage by segment Source: EA Gibson Number

30 VLCCs arriving AG next 30 days by hull 1 Dec 2006 until 1 Oct 2010 No Source: Pareto Bassøe AS

31 The future

32 Long term opportunities Population growth Many Chinese Indians African still do not drive cars Moderate long term economic growth? EIA long term 1% increase in oil demand GHG reduction measures? quadrillion Btu Oslo Opera tunnel

33 The tanker is market facing Increasing fleet Abating demand 2011? Russian oil moving eastward Continued high levels of global oil stocks and expectations that demand growth will ease in coming months is weighing on prices. Weakening relationship GDP growth and oil demand / expansion services relative to manufacturing Conclusion


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