1. Journalism 614: Opinion and Perception II: Spiral of Silence

2. What is Public Opinion?  Any opinion held by a majority of citizens? –Democratic view - The General Will  Any opinion about public affairs? –Liberal Democratic view - All are valid  Only reasoned opinion about issues? –Elitist view - Only informed opinions count  Each of these is about forming preferences and expressing those views

3. Another definition…  Public opinion is any opinion that can expressed publicly without sanctions –Can state without fear of social isolation Here, public opinion is a matter of visibility Minority opinions must be seen for those who hold them to feel comfortable expressing themselves  This is about the perceptions of the opinion climate and the ability to speak out without risks

4. Media Influence  Direct Method - Communication events, arguments, and opinions that change the mind of audience members –Agenda setting, framing, priming, cultivation, and some campaign/advertising effects  Indirect Method - Effect of communication is through its presumed influence on others –Present indicators of what seems to be opinion –Media convey an impression of how accepted an opinion may be now or in future

5. Spiral of Silence  Societal norms can be intimidating  Understand public opinion as a tangible force –Intense social pressure can be brought to bear on the person who dares to test the boundaries  Perception of distribution of opinion shapes willingness to express opinions –People express opinions more confidently when they see they are in the majority or “ gaining ground ” –People are unwilling to express opinions that run counter to their perception of majority view

6. Opinion Expression  What opinions can be expressed? –Opinions that do not risk fear of social isolation –Opinions that are publicly visible Can be a minority opinion, but minority must speak out and act as if it is, or will be, majority  People have a “ quasi-statistical organ ” –A sixth sense that provides information about what society is thinking and feeling –Constantly scan the environment to gauge the climate of opinion and future trends.

7. Fear of Isolation  Fear of social isolation is the key force that drives the spiral of silence –Group pressure has tremendous influence –We don ’ t like to be excluded for our views  Theory about obedience to authority in World War II - citizens in Nazi Germany –Grew out of attempt to account for German citizenry in the lead up to the Holocaust

8.  Neumann (1974) introduced the “spiral of silence” as an attempt to explain in part how public opinion is formed.  She was attempting to explain why Germans in the l930s supported political positions that led to war and genocide.

9. Why a Spiral?  Noelle-Neumann argues that the effect spirals over time, because as the minority opinion is expressed less and less, increasingly those who hold it come to think no one else agrees with them, and may even try to talk themselves out of their own beliefs.

10.  Mass media influences the spiral of silence in that the more mass media persuades people that their opinion is outlying, the more the spiral takes effect.

11. Polling and the “Spiral of Silence”  The implications of this are that pollsters should not just ask about an individual’s own opinions. Must ask what a person perceives to be the predominant view.  People are hesitant to express a preference that they feel is generally unpopular, so the pollster needs to know what people THINK is the prevailing or dominent view.

12.  The Spiral of Silence“ theory has been criticized for ambiguity and methodological weakness.  Noelle-Neumann backed her theories with some empirical research, but also with references to historical intellectuals - Machiavelli, Rousseau, & Hobbes.  But criticism notwithstanding, her ideas are worth considering.

13. The Gulf War~An example?  During the 1991 Gulf War U.S. support for the war was measured in a survey that asked about people’s opinions.  Overall, respondents were clearly less supportive of the war than the popular support depicted by the media. But those who watched television seem to have developed the impression that the public supported the war, were more likely to support the war themselves.

14. Does it Matter Noelle-Neumann was a Nazi? –Noelle-Neumann was Nazi Party member She worked for Goebbels, head of Nazi Propaganda Wrote for Das Reich, but later withdrew/recanted  Christopher Simpson, professor of journalism at American University here in Washington, DC, published an article in the Journal of Communication, “Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann’s “Spiral of Silence” and the Historical Context of Communication Theory”.  Simpson cited her pro-NSDAP writings. For example, in Das Reich in 1941 she had described the Chicago Daily News as a Jewish “wasps nest” and accused Jews of using “neutral camouflage” to disguise what she characterized as their monopoly of US advertising, films and newspapers.

15. Noelle claimed that her attacks against Jews published from 1937 to 1941 were an “alibi” to cover her real anti-Nazism, that she had no intention of harming Jews by her writings. She argued that she had never become a Nazi party member. Also she said that she had been dismissed from Das Reich in 1942 by Goebbels himself, because she had used a picture of Franklin Delano Roosevelt that was insufficiently repulsive.

16. Questions to Think About:  Does the “Spiral of Silence” theory make ring true to you?  What sort of experiment could you design to test it?  Does Noelle-Neumann’s involvement with Hitler’s regime invalidate her ideas?  Does her reaction to Simpson’s exposé invalidate her ideas?

17. Social Influence  Considers effects of group settings on attitudes, opinion expression, behavior  Largely based on experimental research –Solomon Asch ’ s work on social conformity When do we go along with the group? –Stanley Milgram ’ s work on social compliance When do we obey authority?

18. Asch – Conformity

19. Conformity The Asch studies  Unambiguous situation  Small group setting (10-12)  Uniform incorrect assessment  Over one-third concur with incorrect assessment - go along with the group

20. Minority Influence  Judgments about color of slides  Consistent incorrect assessment by minority  Portion of subjects agree in error  Implication: –Minority opinion can exert power –Bandwagon vs. Siding with the underdog

21. Milgram – Obedience

22. Obedience  Subjects “ randomly ” assigned the role of "teacher" and asked to administered shocks to "pupils ” for incorrect responses  Pupils were actually part of the experiment. –Act out the effects of progressively higher “ shocks ” –What proportion will continue to the highest level when prodded by the supervisor? Highest voltage switches (450 volts) were marked with labels of “ Danger: Severe Shock ” and then “ XXX ”

23. Setup and Scenario Voltage Confederate Response 75 Grunts 120 Shouts in pain 150 Refuses to continue 200 Blood-curdling screams 300 Refuses to answer 330+ Silence Objection Supervisor ’ s response First "He's fine. go on. ” Second "The experiment requires you to go on. ” Third "It is absolutely essential to go on. ” Fourth "You have no choice. You must go on."

24. Response of Subjects

25. Milgram ’ s Obedience Experiment  Different subjects, locations (~)  Decrease proximity of authority (-)  Increase connection to student (-)  Involve obedient others (+)  Involve disobedient others (-)

26. When to Speak or Keep Silent  Conformity and compliance have great social power over individuals –Those in minority positions tend to keep quite if they do not sense support –Not that they change their minds “ Duck their heads and keep their own council ”

27. Summary  People have the ability to gauge trends of public sentiment  People justifiably fear social isolation  People are hesitant to express minority viewpoints, especially if “ losing ground ”  But where do they get their perceptions?

28. Media Influence  Mass media work jointly with majority opinion to silence minority views –Mass media, particularly TV, suggest what others are thinking through portrayals –People look to the media to see if there is support and legitimization for views Index the media to gauge current climate Provide the words and phrases that people can use to defend a certain point of view

29. Critiques of Spiral of Silence  Hardcores - the minority that remains vocal in defiance of threats of isolation –Bill Maher, Dixie Chicks, War Protesters  Pluralistic ignorance and Projection - we tend to misestimate the prevalence of our views –Quasi-statistical organ doesn ’ t work so well  Weak support outside of WW II Germany –Maybe only operates in totalitarian regimes –The ability to find like-minded views online