1. WRAP Workshop on Fire, Carbon, & Dust Emissions of Carbon from Fire Fire Emissions Joint Forum Presented by – Dave Randall, Air Sciences Inc. May 23, 2006 Sacramento, CA

2. From Acres to Extinction

3. How Fire EI’s Have Been Used FIRE INVENTORYUSE July 1996 WF (prototype)>Establish EI method 1996 WF>Model performance Initial projection EI’s>Model performance; –2018: Rx, Ag initial attribution analysis –Typical: WF 2002 QC’d EI>Model performance; –WF, Rx, Ag, NFR attribution; sensitivity; NEI Planning EIs – all types>Attribution; –Baseline (2000-2004) SIP Preparation –Projection (2018) STATUS complete in progress (07/06)

4. EC Emission Summary WRAP-wide (w/o AK) All Fire Types (max scale 80,000 tons)

5. OC Emission Summary WRAP-wide (w/o AK) All Fire Types (max scale 600,000 tons) 7x EC

8. Spatial Distribution Baseline WF and RX

9. Temporal Distribution: Baseline Wildfire EI

10. Temporal Distribution: Baseline Rx Fire EI

11. Uncertainty and Accuracy in Fire Emissions Five things you should know about the WRAP’s Fire EIs: 1.Planning EIs (Ph III/IV) are nominal (possible). 2.Greatest uncertainty is in fuel loading and consumption (+/- 50% or more). 3.Emission factor information is fair (very sparse for pollutant speciation). 4.Plume characteristics – we use anecdotal information to generalize (getting better). 5.Even small fires in the EI, proximate to a Class I area, appear to show up as modeled visibility impacts.

12. Baseline Annual PM 2.5 Emissions by County Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness

13. Baseline Control Case Annual PM 2.5 Emissions by County Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness

14. Reference Information Contact Information: Dave Randall Air Sciences Inc. 1301 Washington Ave, Suite 200 Golden CO 80401 w\303.988.2960 x221 e\drandall@airsci.com URLs for fire EIs and documentation WRAP/Fire Emissions Joint Forum main page: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/index.html Phase II Historical EIs: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/tasks/FEJFtask7PhaseII.html Phase III/IV Planning EIs: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/tasks/FEJFtask7Phase3-4.html