1. Workshop on the Criteria to establish projections scenarios Sectoral projection guidance: industrial processes Mario Contaldi, TASK-GHG Emanuele Peschi, TASK-GHG Ankara, 15-17 March 2016

2. Outline Source description Economic assumptions: Activity data projections Technological assumptions Emission factor projections GHG projection indicators Source specific QA/QC Discussion 2

3. Source description Industrial processes are resulting from – 2.A Mineral Industry – 2.B. Chemical Industry – 2.C Metal Production – 2.D Other Production – 2.E Production of halocarbons and SF6 – 2.F Consumption of halocarbons and SF6 Each of these source categories has several subcategories: – It has to be decided which of them has to be considered in detail for projections – Detailed guidance is given and should be followed for the most important subsectors (actual or potential key source categories) – Less important ones should be projected as an aggregation 3

4. 4

5. General Points for the Calculation of Emission Projections In general for subsectors in 2.A – 2.D (Mineral and Chemical Industry and Metal production) projection calculations are based on detailed projection of Activity data and Emission factors – In some subsectors Activity data and Emission factors are not available due to confidential reasons. In these cases emission projections have to be based on the development of the absolute emissions. For the projection of F-Gases (2.E-2.F) emission projections have to include the activity and emission developments of previous years, because emissions are not only resulting from manufacturing but also from the bank and from disposal. 5

6. General Points for the Calculation of Emission Projections For the most important subsectors each gas which has been reported in most recent GHG inventories should be projected separately. Proposed calculations for F-gasses are based on results and methodologies presented in the “Preparatory study for a review of Regulation (EC) No. 842/2006 on certain fluorinated greenhouse gases”, prepared for the EU Commission in the context of Service Contract No 070307/2009/548866/SER/C4, September 2011 Historical Activity data are based on most recent GHG inventories (if they are not available because of confidential reasons, emissions are taken as a whole term from GHG inventories). 6

7. Activity data projections 2A-2D Tier 1: Last available AD from GHG inventory is held constant Tier 2: AD changes along the timeline, using the most reasonable trend of available parameters – The parameter which should be used is depending on the subsector and national circumstances (importance in relation to all industrial sectors, export/import structure), e.g. economic development (GDP or GVA, preferably for the sector itself), population development, general consumption figures. Tier 3: National projections of production on emission source level in total production. E.g. including information on shutdown/ start-up of individual installations, information from trade associations or national projections on the development of production. 7

8. Emission Factor projections 2A-2D Historical Emission factors are based on most recent GHG inventories Tier 1: Last available EF from GHG inventory is held constant Tier 2: EF should change along the timeline of projection if : – changes in process input/output are anticipated (especially 2A) – changes in process performances are anticipated (especially 2B+2C) 8

9. Parameters for the Projection of 2A-2D GVA (total and sectoral) is the favorite trend parameter (against GDP) – Subsector level only partly available Annual growth of GDP in industrial sectors can be used (about half of all EU MS). Production index in t/a from surveys, associations and national statistics is also very often available and used for projections. Penetration rates for new technologies and plant specific information (especially within ETS) is recommended EF are in general available and used for projections, starting from CRF data or new values. There may be changes for EF for cement and lime production. 9

10. Emission Projections of 2E (Production of Halocarbons and SF6) 2E1 and 2E2 are identified as key source categories but are often lacking for data because of confidential reasons. The production of F-Gases could be related to developments in 2F but there is no general direct linking between the use of F-Gases and the production on MS- level. Future exports and imports between MS and from outside EU are more relevant than national consumption or new appliances or refill projected in 2F. Emissions should be held constant if no detailed information on installation level is available, that production will be reduced. 10

11. Emission Projections of 2F - I In sector 2F the following subsectors are identified to be European key source categories – 2F1 (Refrigeration and Air Conditioning) – 2F3 (Fire Extinguishers) – and 2F4 (Aerosols/MDI) For these categories detailed guidelines will be available to calculate manufacturing, lifetime and disposal emissions. Source category 2F1 has to be differentiated into the following sub-categories for the inclusion of measures related to F-Gas emissions: – Commercial Refrigeration – Industrial Refrigeration – Stationary Air Conditioning – Mobile Air Conditioning 11

12. Emission Projection of 2.F - II 12 The following general 3-tiered methodology is planned: Tier 1: Results from recent F-Gas report if detailed CRF data is not available – Some CRF-data has been contested or is not as differentiated as it will be presented by the guidelines. Tier 2: Adjusting results of F-Gas report to national information – Basing on detailed and reliable CRF data, development rates of emissions are taken from F-Gas report. Tier 3: Detailed methodologies – With default parameters used in the report, giving place for more or less information on national circumstances.

13. Parameters for the Projection of 2F1 Proposed parameters for Tier 3 methodologies for commercial and industrial refrigeration are not often available but recommended. – Calculation of commercial refr. shall be based on sales area, specific amount of refrigerants and shares of refrigerants. – Calculation of industrial refr. shall be based on cooling capacities or the production of goods which need cooling (including average charges and shares of refrigerants). It was mentioned that calculation may also be based on the stock of industrial refrigeration (which is not generally known) For stationary and mobile AC, Tier 3 methodologies should be based on stocks, average charges and shares of F-Gases. The general idea is to present Tier 3 methodologies with a large amount of default parameters which can be adjusted to national circumstances. 13

14. Linking with other CRF-Categories Combustion in manufacturing industries (1.A.2) should be based on the same Activity data as for industrial processes. For some source-categories direct linking is necessary to results in source category 1.A.1 and 1.A.2: – Emissions from flue gas desulphurisation (2A3) have to be linked to the projection of coal consumption as activity data. – Emissions from catalytic burning and conversion loss of refineries (2B5) have to be linked to projections of oil consumption as activity data. 14

15. Source specific QA/QC First step is general QA/QC, especially TCCCA (Transparency, Completeness, Consistency, Comparability and Accuracy Checks) Emissions should show a reasonable development: – Changes along the timeline should be steady on subsector level. – High increases or decreases have to be explained. – Consistency with industrial energy consumption has to be checked if not the same AD have been used. Check that projections fit with official economic and policy expectations (e.g. emission reduction targets). All these checks have to be conducted first by personnel doing the calculations and afterwards again for the whole picture on complete GHG projections from personnel not directly involved in the projection compilation. 15

16. Discussion points What tier level it is best fit for Turkey for – Industrial processes – F-gasses Generally applied CRF-methodologies should be followed (e.g. consideration of the dual role of carbon as a reductant and a fuel in the production process of pig iron (2C1), which differs between MS) CRF Sector 3 is marginal related to absolute GHG emissions. The proposal is to held it constant along the timeline without detailed projection. Very general: How to deal with projections which include process emissions into total industry emissions? Should there be an additional guidance for this methodology? 16