Presentation on theme: "M.sc. Snježana Fijan-Parlov EKONERG, Atmospheric Protection Dpt. 24-25 June 2005 DG JRC Ispra (VA), Italy CROATIAN NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING GHG."— Presentation transcript:
M.sc. Snježana Fijan-Parlov EKONERG, Atmospheric Protection Dpt June 2005 DG JRC Ispra (VA), Italy CROATIAN NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING GHG FROM AGRICULTURE
Chronology of Inventory Preparation GHG emission inventory ( ) was prepared in 2000, in the framework of 1NC In-depth review of 1NC, including GHG inventory, is done (March 2002). First National Inventory Report (NIR) for (including CRF for all years) was prepared in September NIR for was prepared and submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat, first time in appropriate time (15 April 2004).
National Lead Stakeholders Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction (MEPPPC) is responsible for GHG inventory preparation (National Focal Point). reporting to international bodies National Lead Institution (EKONERG) EKONERG (Atmospheric Protection Dpt.) prepares GHG inventory, based on contract with Ministry. EKONERG is responsible for co-ordination/compilation of inventory, archiving of relevant data, documentation of activity data, emission factors and methods used, validation & verification of data and compilation of report. Arrangement of long-term contract for inventory preparation is one of the main goal in creation of sustainable inventory process.
Institutional Arrangements * In near future, Agency will be responsible for GHG inventory preparation and EKONERG should be thematic center for air (together with some other institutions). * National Steering Committee was established in the framework of Regional Project: Capacity Building for Improving the Quality of Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Scope of National Inventory National Inventory Report is based on: UNFCCC guidance on reporting and review (FCCC/CP/1999/7 & FCCC/CP/2002/8) IPCC methodology (Revised 1996 & GPG Guidelines) Detailed description of Inventory by Sectors and by GHG is provided in NIR. Inventory covered: all relevant sources and sinks in the framework of IPCC methodology main anthropogenic direct GHG: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, PFCs, HFCs (SF 6 wasnt estimated); indirect GHG: CO, NO x, NMVOC; and SO 2
GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture The agricultural activities contribute directly to the emission of greenhouse gases through various processes. The following sources have been identified to make a more complete break down in the emission calculation: Livestock: enteric fermentation (CH 4 ) and manure management (CH 4, N 2 O) Agricultural soils (N 2 O)
GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture The emission generated by burning the agricultural residues was not included in calculation because its activity is prohibited by low in Republic of Croatia. There are no ecosystems in Republic of Croatia that could be considered natural savannas or rice fields; consequently, no greenhouse gas emissions therefore exist for this sub-category.
IPCC methodology (Tier 1) and default EFs were mainly used. Country specifics: no country specific EF Data gaps: manure management statistics GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture
Overview of activity data Annual population of livestock (decline ) Manure system (additional research needed) Synthetic fertilisers (additional research needed) Crop production data Area of histosols
National Institutions Data Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics (statistical data), Faculty of agriculture, Zagreb FAO data base
Description of GHG Emission Calculation System
Trend of Total GHG Emissions/Removals by Sectors From 1995 to 2002, GHG emissions increased with average annual rate of 3.3%. If the emissions will continue to increase with this rate, emission Kyoto limit will be exceeded in Total GHG emissions: in 1990 – 31.6 mil. t CO 2 -eq in 2002 – 28.0 mil. t CO 2 -eq Energy sector: 67-76% CO 2 removals by sinks: 9 mil. t in 2002
Share of gasses in Total GHG Emission
Trend of CH 4 Emissions Total CH 4 emissions: in 1990 – 182 kt in 2002 – 163 kt
Trend of N 2 O Emissions Total N 2 O emissions: in 1990 – 12.5 kt in 2002 – 9.7 kt
Key Sources Analyses, Tier 1 IPCC Category SourceGHGLevel/Trend ENERGY Stationary Sources - Coal CO 2 Level, Trend Stationary Sources – Liquid Fuel CO 2 Level, Trend Stationary Sources – Natural Gas CO 2 Level, Trend Mobile Sources – Road Transport CO 2 Level, Trend Mobile Sources – Domestic Aviation Transport CO 2 Trend Mobile Sources – Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing CO 2 Level Mobile Sources – Road Transport N2ON2OTrend Fugitive Sources – Natural Gas and Oil CH 4 Level, Trend Natural Gas Scrubbing* - CPS Molve CO 2 Level, Trend INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES Cement Production CO 2 Level, Trend Ammonia Production CO 2 Level Nitric Acid Production N2ON2OLevel, Trend AGRICULTURE Enteric FermentationCH 4 Level, Trend Manure ManagementN2ON2OTrend Direct N 2 O Emission from Agricultural SoilsN2ON2OLevel, Trend Indirect N 2 O Emission from Nitrogen Used in Agr.N2ON2OLevel WASTE Solid Waste Disposal Sites CH 4 Level, Trend
Uncertainty Analyses, Tier 1 High reliability level (uncertainty: < 10 %) CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion CO 2 Emissions from Natural Gas Scrubbing CO 2 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Cement and Ammonia Production) Medium reliability level (uncertainty: 10 to 50 %) CH 4 Emissions from Fuel Combustion CO 2 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Lime Production, Limestone and Dolomite Use, Soda Ash Production and Use, Iron and Steal Production) CH 4 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Other Chemical Production) CH 4 Emissions from Enteric Fermentation CH 4 Emissions from Manure Management N 2 O Emissions from Industrial Processes (Nitric Acid Production) N 2 O Emissions from Human Sewage Low reliability level (uncertainty: > 50 %) N 2 O Emissions from Fuel Combustion CH 4 Fugitive Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas HFC Emissions from HFC Consumption N 2 O Emissions from Manure Management N 2 O Emissions from Agricultural Soils CH 4 Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal Sites According to our conservative assessment, the total uncertainty of GHG emission for 2002 was estimated at 36.1 percent, while the uncertainty of emission trend ( ) was estimated at 6.7 percent.
Major problems Quality of activity data EF
No research projects at the moment in the country that will eventually improve national data Country specific data
Design of new National Inventory System * Establishment of new National Inventory System is in progress.