Presentation on theme: "CROATIAN NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING GHG FROM AGRICULTURE"— Presentation transcript:
1CROATIAN NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING GHG FROM AGRICULTURE M.sc. Snježana Fijan-ParlovEKONERG, Atmospheric Protection Dpt.24-25 June 2005DG JRCIspra (VA), Italy
2Chronology of Inventory Preparation GHG emission inventory ( ) was prepared in 2000, in the framework of 1NCIn-depth review of 1NC, including GHG inventory, is done (March 2002).First National Inventory Report (NIR) for (including CRF for all years) was prepared in September 2003.NIR for was prepared and submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat, first time in appropriate time (15 April 2004).
3National Lead Stakeholders Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction (MEPPPC) is responsible for GHG inventory preparation (National Focal Point).reporting to international bodiesNational Lead Institution (EKONERG)EKONERG (Atmospheric Protection Dpt.) prepares GHG inventory, based on contract with Ministry.EKONERG is responsible for co-ordination/compilation of inventory, archiving of relevant data, documentation of activity data, emission factors and methods used, validation & verification of data and compilation of report.Arrangement of long-term contract for inventory preparation is one of the main goal in creation of sustainable inventory process.
4Institutional Arrangements * National Steering Committee was established in the framework of Regional Project: “Capacity Building for Improving the Quality of Greenhouse Gas Inventories”* In near future, Agency will be responsible for GHG inventory preparation and EKONERG should be thematic center for air (together with some other institutions).
5Scope of National Inventory National Inventory Report is based on:UNFCCC guidance on reporting and review (FCCC/CP/1999/7 & FCCC/CP/2002/8)IPCC methodology (Revised 1996 & GPG Guidelines)Detailed description of Inventory by Sectors and by GHG is provided in NIR.Inventory covered:all relevant sources and sinks in the framework of IPCC methodologymain anthropogenic direct GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs (SF6 wasn’t estimated); indirect GHG: CO, NOx, NMVOC; and SO2
6GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture The agricultural activities contribute directly to the emission of greenhouse gases through various processes. The following sources have been identified to make a more complete break down in the emission calculation:Livestock: enteric fermentation (CH4) and manure management (CH4, N2O)Agricultural soils (N2O)
7GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture The emission generated by burning the agricultural residues was not included in calculation because its activity is prohibited by low in Republic of Croatia. There are no ecosystems in Republic of Croatia that could be considered natural savannas or rice fields; consequently, no greenhouse gas emissions therefore exist for this sub-category.
8GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture IPCC methodology (Tier 1) and default EFs were mainly used.Country specifics:no country specific EFData gaps:manure management statistics
9Overview of activity data Annual population of livestock (decline )Manure system (additional research needed)Synthetic fertilisers (additional research needed)Crop production dataArea of histosols
10National Institutions Data Sources:Central Bureau of Statistics (statistical data),Faculty of agriculture, ZagrebFAO data base
12Trend of Total GHG Emissions/Removals by Sectors in 1990 – 31.6 mil. t CO2-eqin 2002 – 28.0 mil. t CO2-eqEnergy sector: 67-76%CO2 removals by sinks: 9 mil. t in 2002From 1995 to 2002, GHG emissions increased with average annual rate of 3.3%. If the emissions will continue to increase with this rate, emission Kyoto limit will be exceeded in 2005.
14Trend of CH4 Emissions Total CH4 emissions: in 1990 – 182 kt
15Trend of N2O Emissions Total N2O emissions: in 1990 – 12.5 kt
16Key Sources Analyses, Tier 1 IPCC Category SourceGHGLevel/TrendENERGYStationary Sources - CoalCO2Level, TrendStationary Sources – Liquid FuelStationary Sources – Natural GasMobile Sources – Road TransportMobile Sources – Domestic Aviation TransportTrendMobile Sources – Agriculture/Forestry/FishingLevelN2OFugitive Sources – Natural Gas and OilCH4Natural Gas Scrubbing* - CPS MolveINDUSTRIAL PROCESSESCement ProductionAmmonia ProductionNitric Acid ProductionAGRICULTUREEnteric FermentationManure ManagementDirect N2O Emission from Agricultural SoilsIndirect N2O Emission from Nitrogen Used in Agr.WASTESolid Waste Disposal Sites
17Uncertainty Analyses, Tier 1 High reliability level (uncertainty: < 10 %)CO2 Emissions from Fuel CombustionCO2 Emissions from Natural Gas ScrubbingCO2 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Cement and Ammonia Production)Medium reliability level (uncertainty: 10 to 50 %)CH4 Emissions from Fuel CombustionCO2 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Lime Production, Limestone and Dolomite Use, Soda Ash Production and Use, Iron and Steal Production)CH4 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Other Chemical Production)CH4 Emissions from Enteric FermentationCH4 Emissions from Manure ManagementN2O Emissions from Industrial Processes (Nitric Acid Production)N2O Emissions from Human SewageLow reliability level (uncertainty: > 50 %)N2O Emissions from Fuel CombustionCH4 Fugitive Emissions from Oil and Natural GasHFC Emissions from HFC ConsumptionN2O Emissions from Manure ManagementN2O Emissions from Agricultural SoilsCH4 Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal SitesAccording to our conservative assessment, the total uncertainty of GHG emission for 2002 was estimatedat 36.1 percent, while the uncertainty of emission trend ( ) was estimated at 6.7 percent.