1. Waste as resource within Heat Roadmap Europe Urban Persson Halmstad University

2. Brief project background The heating and cooling sector has largely been overlooked in European scenarios exploring energy futures towards 2050 HRE: European studies combining mapping of local conditions with energy system modelling to identify, quantify, and assess cost- and resource efficient solutions for the future Large-scale implementation of district heating in future Europe Aalborg University (DK) and Halmstad University (SE) Key methodological concerns: Bias on national perpectives in traditional energy system modelling Electricity & gas infrastructures – Continental… Heat infrastructures – Local! U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

3. Brief project background Two pre-studies: HRE1 (2012) – The role of district heating in decarbonising the EU energy system HRE2 (2013) – The balance between heat savings and heat supply at an EU level Benchmark: Energy Roadmap 2050 IEE Stratego HRE3 (2014-2016) – The balance between heat savings and heat supply for 5 MS Horizon 2020 (2015 call, EE-14) HRE4 (2016-2018) – New project! Balances for 14 MS U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

4. Brief project background Mapping local conditions Example: the Netherlands Heat demand Heat demand density Regional accumulation Excess heat Thermal power plants WTE facilities Energy-intensive industry Regional quantification District heating Cities with district heating City heat demands U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

5. Brief project background Spatial analysis to identify heat synergy regions U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

6. Energy efficiency measures introduced on both supply and demand sides of the energy system results in equal decarbonisation as heat savings alone - but at lower total energy system costs! Brief project background Energy system modelling End use building heat demands in 2050 (HRE2) EU-EE: 5.7 EJ (high energy savings scenario) HRE-EE: 9.5 EJ Costs for heating and cooling of buildings Avoids most expensive end use efficiency investments ~15% lower total heat sector costs Total energy system costs ~10% lower in 2050 (~100 B€/a) U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

7. Waste as resource Decoupling of human well- being and GDP from resource use! Fundamental idea from EU Environment Action Programmes A circular economy Recycling, reuse, recovery Prio 1: Material perspective An energy union Waste-to-Energy – an enabling technology and concept to acheive increased efficiency in both materials and energy!

8. U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden. Waste as resource Municipal Solid Waste in EU27, historical trends (1995 to 2012): Treatment volumes ~250 Mt/a, declining briefly… 58 Mt/a for incineration (2012)! Circular economy on the way! Index Slight decrease in total volumes during last five years – structural change? Incineration (R1): 3/1 increase! Percent Landfill: Drastic reduction in 17 years: Treatment volumes: -33% (from 66 to 33%)

9. IEA EEB, v2014 (Ref. year 2010) Waste for energy purposes: Municipal – Non-renewable Municipal – Renewable Industrial waste (IW) Data on total volumes: 2010: ~80 Mt 1990: ~25 Mt at conversion factor 10 GJ/t PES Mun+IW : 800 PJ PES Mun ≈ 648 PJ Electricity out: 130 PJ/119 PJ Heat out: 171 PJ/159 PJ Overall efficiency: η tot ≈ 38%/43% Heat recovery: η heat ≈ 21%/25% U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden. Waste as resource HRE2 (Heat out): 2030: 330 PJ 2050: 585 PJ

10. Building the HRE WTE List v1 – Spring of 2012 (HRE1) 410 facilities 286 (70%) with FacilityID & geo. coordinates from E- PRTR v3.3 351 (86%) with cap. data (data year mainly 2006 to 2009) v2 – Spring of 2013 (HRE2) Same as v1 except for: 378 (92%) with cap. data (data year mainly 2006 to 2009) Key data and information sources: European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E- PRTR) v3.3 ISWA 2006 State-of-the-Art Report CEWEP Country reports Websites, national energy statistics, other reports… U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

11. Count of FacilityID Main activity sectors200120042007200820092010 E-PRTR 5. Waste and waste water management6338736177118481 5. (a) … recovery or disposal of hazardous waste1822196122062175 5. (b) … incineration of non-hazardous waste… Directive 2000/76/EC378391411422 5. (c) … disposal of non-hazardous waste1580227922943047 5. (d) Landfills (see note in Guidance Document)1398147614921506 5. (e) … disposal or recycling of animal carcasses and animal waste126138154156 5. (f) Urban waste-water treatment plants972105110941115 5. (g) Ind. operated industrial waste-water treatment plants…626560 EPER_5. Waste management12191524 EPER_5.1/5.2 Disposal/recovery of hazardous or municipal waste326468 EPER_5.3/5.4 Disposal of non-hazardous waste and landfills8931056 Grand Total121915246338736177118481 Building the HRE WTE List v3 – Autumn of 2013 E-PRTR v3.3  E-PRTR, v4.2 (Activity sector 5.(b)) Corrected count from v2: 405 (some duplicates removed) Additional “Activity sector 5. (b)” facilities: 87 Total count: 492 facilities! U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

12. Building the HRE WTE List 2007 378 facilities Dir. 2000/76/EC U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

13. Building the HRE WTE List 2008 391 facilities Dir. 2000/76/EC U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

14. Building the HRE WTE List 2009 411 facilities Dir. 2000/76/EC U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

15. Building the HRE WTE List 2010 422 facilities Dir. 2000/76/EC U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

16. Major correlation! Some discrepancies Statistical categories? Data sources? Coordinates? Co-firing? Building the HRE WTE List Compared to HRE WTE List v2 U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

17. Building the HRE WTE List v4 – Autumn of 2013 Compatibility between E-PRTR v4.2 & ISWA 2012 Capacity update – mainly to ISWA 2012 527 facilities (incl. CH (30), NO (14) & US (86)) 397 EU27 facilities in 16 MS Total capacity: 69 Mt/a Compatibility level attained All ISWA 2012 EU27 facilities identified and connected All E-PRTR v4.2 (Activity sector 5.(b)) facilities connected U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden. Linkage: ISWA 2012  HRE WTE List  E-PRTR v4.2

18. Building the HRE WTE List v5 – Autumn of 2013 Additional sources, classifications, in operation? 562 European facilities in 21 countries (incl. NO & CH) 487 (87%) with cap. data (data year mainly 2010) Total cap. ~93 [Mtpa] EU27 facilities in operation 432 (100%) with cap. data (data year mainly 2010) Total cap. ~86 [Mtpa] 403 (93%) with FacilityID & geo. coordinates from E- PRTR U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden. Fair correspondence with IEA and ES Data!

19. U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden. Building the HRE WTE List v5! Oct, 2013 (Ref. year 2010) 432 facilities in operation Capacity: ~86 Mt/a

20. Future work & Conclusions Investigating model projections for future EU MSW generation EU ref. model (Sc. 4), 2030: 294 Mt treatment (308 Mt generation, 95.6%) Linear interpolation: 70% recycling: 206 Mt 5% landfilling: ~15 Mt 25% Incineration: ~74 Mt HRE WTE List v5: 86 Mt EU27 capacity! MSW incineration in 2010: 58-65 Mt MSW Heat gen. in 2010: ~16 Mt (159 PJ) η heat  Heat recovery capacity! U. Persson. ISWA 9th Beacon Conference, November 18-19 2015, Malmö, Sweden.

21. Future work & Conclusions Spatial analysis NUTS2 waste data (Eurostat) Regional developments Population and urbanisation trends Distribution of R1 capacity Exports/Imports of waste? Role of district heating systems? EU heating and cooling strategy Decisive impact on DHC development in Europe! District heating systems – key infrastructures for higher heat recovery efficiencies in WTE!

22. Thank you! This presentation is based on research performed within the Danish 4DH research centre with basic funding from the Danish Innovation Fund and the Stratego project with basic funding from the European Commission. For more information about the 4DH research centre, see: http://www.4dh.dk/ For more information about Heat Roadmap Europe, see: http://heatroadmap.eu/ See also two scientific articles about Heat Roadmap Europe: Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513010574 Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying strategic heat synergy regions http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514004194http://www.4dh.dk/http://heatroadmap.eu/ http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513010574 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514004194