1. Regional Cooperation in South Asia: Looking Back and Ways Forward U.S. Foreign Policy Summer Institute Bard College, New York July 24, 2015 Prem Raj Khanal, Lecturer Master’s Program in International Relations and Diplomacy, Tribhuvan University, Nepal prem.khanal@mirdtu.edu.np Prem Raj Khanal, Lecturer Master’s Program in International Relations and Diplomacy, Tribhuvan University, Nepal prem.khanal@mirdtu.edu.np

2. OUTLINE What is SAARC? Brief history of SAARC Achievements of SAARC Challenges and difficulties of deeper regional cooperation in South Asia What next: Future of SAARC What is SAARC? Brief history of SAARC Achievements of SAARC Challenges and difficulties of deeper regional cooperation in South Asia What next: Future of SAARC

3. South Asia

5. SAARC: Introduction Established on 8 December 1985 in Dhaka Seven Founder Countries- Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan joined the organization as a eighth member in 2007. Nine observers - United States of America, China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Iran, Mauritius, Australia, Myanmar and European Union Established on 8 December 1985 in Dhaka Seven Founder Countries- Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan joined the organization as a eighth member in 2007. Nine observers - United States of America, China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Iran, Mauritius, Australia, Myanmar and European Union

6. Some Facts of SAARC Population: 1.692 billion GDP: $2.608 trillion Fast growing economy- growth is projected to increase 7% in 2015 to 7.6% by 2017 About 399 million people – 40% of the World poor, live on less than $1.25 a day More than 200 million people live in slums World’s largest working-age population A quarter of the world’s middle class consumer (May 29, 2015 World Bank) Population: 1.692 billion GDP: $2.608 trillion Fast growing economy- growth is projected to increase 7% in 2015 to 7.6% by 2017 About 399 million people – 40% of the World poor, live on less than $1.25 a day More than 200 million people live in slums World’s largest working-age population A quarter of the world’s middle class consumer (May 29, 2015 World Bank)

7. SAARC Goals To improve the quality of life through accelerated economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the South Asia To provide a platform for the peoples of South Asia to work together in a spirit of friendship, trust and understanding To promote collaborate action and mutual assistance in the economic, social, cultural, technical and scientific fields To strength cooperation among themselves in international forum on matters of common interest (SAARC Charter) To improve the quality of life through accelerated economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the South Asia To provide a platform for the peoples of South Asia to work together in a spirit of friendship, trust and understanding To promote collaborate action and mutual assistance in the economic, social, cultural, technical and scientific fields To strength cooperation among themselves in international forum on matters of common interest (SAARC Charter)

8. Why SAARC? To solve of the common problems in the region Collective security of the region International Support Ziaur Rahaman Contribution India Role: ‘gang up against India’ Pakistan Role: ‘an Indian strategy to organize the other South Asian countries against Pakistan’ ‘a medium for India to establish hegemony in the region’ To solve of the common problems in the region Collective security of the region International Support Ziaur Rahaman Contribution India Role: ‘gang up against India’ Pakistan Role: ‘an Indian strategy to organize the other South Asian countries against Pakistan’ ‘a medium for India to establish hegemony in the region’

9. Why SAARC? Small countries: Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Maldives resist the Indian hegemony in the region. Common stage for collectively bargain with India in various economic and political problems which had not been solved since long time in a one to one dealing India: the forum should not discuss bilateral issues and security matter, all decisions would be based on unanimity. Small countries: Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Maldives resist the Indian hegemony in the region. Common stage for collectively bargain with India in various economic and political problems which had not been solved since long time in a one to one dealing India: the forum should not discuss bilateral issues and security matter, all decisions would be based on unanimity.

10. SAARC: Major areas of cooperation Economic, Environment, Energy, Culture, People-to-People contacts, Human Resource Development, Information Communication and Media, Poverty Alleviation, Science and Technology, Security Aspects, Tourism Trade and Finance Agricultural and Rural development, Economic, Environment, Energy, Culture, People-to-People contacts, Human Resource Development, Information Communication and Media, Poverty Alleviation, Science and Technology, Security Aspects, Tourism Trade and Finance Agricultural and Rural development,

11. Security Cooperation in South Asia Security is an important reason to form regional organizations like EU, ASEAN, SAARC Small countries in South Asia feel insecurity from India and vice versa. no a common security threat from external world Lack of common perception among South Asian leaders about the role of SAARC in the region creates the problems to solve the security issues. Indian leaders: SAARC should focus only on economic, cultural and technological aspect of the region. Pakistan’s, emphasised the scope of SAARC including political and even bilateral aspect. This dispute regarding the role of SAARC creates the problems to address the security cooperation in South Asia. Security is an important reason to form regional organizations like EU, ASEAN, SAARC Small countries in South Asia feel insecurity from India and vice versa. no a common security threat from external world Lack of common perception among South Asian leaders about the role of SAARC in the region creates the problems to solve the security issues. Indian leaders: SAARC should focus only on economic, cultural and technological aspect of the region. Pakistan’s, emphasised the scope of SAARC including political and even bilateral aspect. This dispute regarding the role of SAARC creates the problems to address the security cooperation in South Asia.

12. Security in South Asia Security issues are not allowed to talk in formal summit of SAARC. However informal talk is important to solve the bilateral and multilateral problems in the region. eg. Simla agreement between India and Pakistan (SAARC Summit 1997 Male) Nuclear weapons: India and Pakistan experiment a series of 5 and 6 nuclear test in 1998 which creates insecurity in South Asia. Internal conflict of SSARC member states creates insecurity in South Asia. SAARC Convention of Terrorism 1988 SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk was established in Colombo in 1995. Security issues are not allowed to talk in formal summit of SAARC. However informal talk is important to solve the bilateral and multilateral problems in the region. eg. Simla agreement between India and Pakistan (SAARC Summit 1997 Male) Nuclear weapons: India and Pakistan experiment a series of 5 and 6 nuclear test in 1998 which creates insecurity in South Asia. Internal conflict of SSARC member states creates insecurity in South Asia. SAARC Convention of Terrorism 1988 SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk was established in Colombo in 1995.

13. Suspicious relations between India and Pakistan India and Pakistan blame each other to support the terrorist group and use the terrorist group against each other. (Role of Media) India support Bangladesh in 1972 to separate from Pakistan. During the early 1980s, the Indian government under Mrs. Indira Gandhi provided arms and training facilities to the Tamil tigers belongs to LTTE (Chakrabarti, 1998:5) 4 wars between India and Pakistan India and Pakistan blame each other to support the terrorist group and use the terrorist group against each other. (Role of Media) India support Bangladesh in 1972 to separate from Pakistan. During the early 1980s, the Indian government under Mrs. Indira Gandhi provided arms and training facilities to the Tamil tigers belongs to LTTE (Chakrabarti, 1998:5) 4 wars between India and Pakistan

14. Security: Contradiction India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal have been significantly contributing to peacekeeping mission in the world under UN, but these countries have been failed to established peace and security in their own region. South Asia is economically poor region the world – more than half of the world poor lives in this region, but it has big amount of military expenditure. India and Pakistan have 93% of total military spending in South Asia and ‘have the capacity to kill more than 100 million people immediately and many hundreds of millions dying subsequently from radiation-related illness’ (Barry and Hiris 1998, Hussain, 2008) In terms of per capita income, India and Pakistan have 142 and 119 position in the world, but both countries have first and 10 th ranks in terms of arms imports (Haq 1997, Hussain 2008) Both countries have been suffering from poverty, unemployment, environment and HIV Aids problem. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal have been significantly contributing to peacekeeping mission in the world under UN, but these countries have been failed to established peace and security in their own region. South Asia is economically poor region the world – more than half of the world poor lives in this region, but it has big amount of military expenditure. India and Pakistan have 93% of total military spending in South Asia and ‘have the capacity to kill more than 100 million people immediately and many hundreds of millions dying subsequently from radiation-related illness’ (Barry and Hiris 1998, Hussain, 2008) In terms of per capita income, India and Pakistan have 142 and 119 position in the world, but both countries have first and 10 th ranks in terms of arms imports (Haq 1997, Hussain 2008) Both countries have been suffering from poverty, unemployment, environment and HIV Aids problem.

15. Economic Cooperation in South Asia South Asia is a economically poor region - about 399 million people – 40% of the World poor live on less than $1.25 a day South Asian countries are most dense populated countries South Asia is Indo centric, India is the largest country in terms of geographical area, population, economic strength and military power Pakistan 2 nd largest country Maldives – tourist industry, attract large amount of FDI, Sri Lanka is second wealthy economy in the region Since 1980, South Asia has obtained in average nearly 6% per annum GDP growth. South Asia is a economically poor region - about 399 million people – 40% of the World poor live on less than $1.25 a day South Asian countries are most dense populated countries South Asia is Indo centric, India is the largest country in terms of geographical area, population, economic strength and military power Pakistan 2 nd largest country Maldives – tourist industry, attract large amount of FDI, Sri Lanka is second wealthy economy in the region Since 1980, South Asia has obtained in average nearly 6% per annum GDP growth.

16. Regional Trade in south Asia South Asia has enormous economic strength in terms of market potential, rich natural resources and human capital. India is single most important trade partner of all the other South Asian countries. Over 90% of regional trade for countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh are confined to a bilateral relationship with India (Weerakoon 2010:916) SAFTA/SAPTA Create more investment friendly environment in the region South Asia has enormous economic strength in terms of market potential, rich natural resources and human capital. India is single most important trade partner of all the other South Asian countries. Over 90% of regional trade for countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh are confined to a bilateral relationship with India (Weerakoon 2010:916) SAFTA/SAPTA Create more investment friendly environment in the region

17. Conflict Conflict between India and Pakistan hamper the intra-regional trade in the region. Pakistan is the major producer of cotton, with excellent quality and even cheaper price to compare international market. India import cotton from South Korea and other far countries and ignore the neighbour country Pakistan. (Jain 1998) Pakistan imports almost $50 million worth of aluminium from Europe and Southeast Asia whereas the price of Indian aluminium is much lower than the international price (Khan 1994, Jain 1998) Pakistan import tea from Kenya, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka, where per kilogram price are $3.25, $3.8, $2,46, $2.98, and 2.9 respectively. But, in India the price of tea is $2.42 per kilogram and has better in quality (Jain 1998) Conflict between India and Pakistan hamper the intra-regional trade in the region. Pakistan is the major producer of cotton, with excellent quality and even cheaper price to compare international market. India import cotton from South Korea and other far countries and ignore the neighbour country Pakistan. (Jain 1998) Pakistan imports almost $50 million worth of aluminium from Europe and Southeast Asia whereas the price of Indian aluminium is much lower than the international price (Khan 1994, Jain 1998) Pakistan import tea from Kenya, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka, where per kilogram price are $3.25, $3.8, $2,46, $2.98, and 2.9 respectively. But, in India the price of tea is $2.42 per kilogram and has better in quality (Jain 1998)

18. Foreign Investment in South Asia Since 1990, most of the South Asian countries have economic reform and they adopted industrial policies that encourage FDI in the region. South Asia has big market with big cities, available cheaper resources which attract FDI. Market imbalance, poor transport infrastructure, high tariff, no business environment, lengthy legal procedures, political instability and internal conflict problem, etc. problems Since 1990, most of the South Asian countries have economic reform and they adopted industrial policies that encourage FDI in the region. South Asia has big market with big cities, available cheaper resources which attract FDI. Market imbalance, poor transport infrastructure, high tariff, no business environment, lengthy legal procedures, political instability and internal conflict problem, etc. problems

19. SAARC: India Role India- 73% total land of SA, 3 times more population than altogether 7 S A countries 75% SAARC GDP, 78% total export and 60% total import Border dispute all SAARC countries (except Afghanistan) India need to create good relations with neighbours to be global leader (permanent member in the UN) I.K Gujral: ‘India future depends on what its neighbour think about it. If India spend its time to fight with its neighbours, India will never become global power’. China influence in SA is growing slowly India can make SAARC either strong or weak Narendra Modi: ‘Neighbourhood First’ ‘Man in Action’ India- 73% total land of SA, 3 times more population than altogether 7 S A countries 75% SAARC GDP, 78% total export and 60% total import Border dispute all SAARC countries (except Afghanistan) India need to create good relations with neighbours to be global leader (permanent member in the UN) I.K Gujral: ‘India future depends on what its neighbour think about it. If India spend its time to fight with its neighbours, India will never become global power’. China influence in SA is growing slowly India can make SAARC either strong or weak Narendra Modi: ‘Neighbourhood First’ ‘Man in Action’

20. SAARC: Achievement Common bond among South Asian people SAARC Summits is only one forum to meet the Head of the State and Government Common goal to improve quality of life through high economic growth Common views in international forum like UN SAARC has been successful to make the common institution to solve the common problem in the region SAFTA agreement (2006) hope SA economy strong Common bond among South Asian people SAARC Summits is only one forum to meet the Head of the State and Government Common goal to improve quality of life through high economic growth Common views in international forum like UN SAARC has been successful to make the common institution to solve the common problem in the region SAFTA agreement (2006) hope SA economy strong

21. SAARC: Challenges Conflict and mistrust among SAARC member countries Internal Conflict Geo-political imbalance/ imbalance of power Lack of unity among SAARC countries Dispute: Border, natural resources Lack of effective implication of SAARC programmes SAARC organizations are not really regional and not effective Role of Secretary General SAARC Charter need to change SAARC Connectivity: Road, Air, Sea SAFTA/SAPTA Conflict and mistrust among SAARC member countries Internal Conflict Geo-political imbalance/ imbalance of power Lack of unity among SAARC countries Dispute: Border, natural resources Lack of effective implication of SAARC programmes SAARC organizations are not really regional and not effective Role of Secretary General SAARC Charter need to change SAARC Connectivity: Road, Air, Sea SAFTA/SAPTA

22. Criticisms of SAARC ‘Coffee shop’ of SAARC leaders Instead of focus on economic growth, poverty reduction, infrastructure development, good education and health services, SAARC spend many years to make plans, programmes, agreements and slogans. Policy makers does not think about implementation of the programme. There is no effective mechanism to implement SAARC programme. SAARC policy are not effective eg: SAARC Youth Year, Child Year, Women Year etc. SAARC regional organizations are not really regional. ‘Coffee shop’ of SAARC leaders Instead of focus on economic growth, poverty reduction, infrastructure development, good education and health services, SAARC spend many years to make plans, programmes, agreements and slogans. Policy makers does not think about implementation of the programme. There is no effective mechanism to implement SAARC programme. SAARC policy are not effective eg: SAARC Youth Year, Child Year, Women Year etc. SAARC regional organizations are not really regional.

23. SAARC: Ways Forward Build more trust between South Asian Countries, especially India and Pakistan More power to Secretary General and high level appointment Regional Connectivity: Greater air, road and rail network within the region Pakistan natural resources, Nepal and Bhutan water resource and Bangladesh natural gas solve the energy crisis in SA Indian expert manpower can build the infrastructures in SA Build more trust between South Asian Countries, especially India and Pakistan More power to Secretary General and high level appointment Regional Connectivity: Greater air, road and rail network within the region Pakistan natural resources, Nepal and Bhutan water resource and Bangladesh natural gas solve the energy crisis in SA Indian expert manpower can build the infrastructures in SA

24. SAARC: Ways Forward Role of SAARC observers need to be more effective USA, Japan, China, EU etc. need to invest more in infrastructure development in SA Roads, Toilets or Electricity - What's Most Important for South Asia's Growth? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjrtkqNxi6khttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjrtkqNxi6k Embassy, SAARC Bank, Free Visa in SA countries… SAARC focus on Soft power: SAF Game (Cricket), Music, Student, Scholar, Businessman, Artist Exchange Programs SAARC Scholarship, SAARC University, New Delhi Public diplomacy increase Cricket can unite South Asian people Cricket can unite South Asian people Role of SAARC observers need to be more effective USA, Japan, China, EU etc. need to invest more in infrastructure development in SA Roads, Toilets or Electricity - What's Most Important for South Asia's Growth? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjrtkqNxi6khttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjrtkqNxi6k Embassy, SAARC Bank, Free Visa in SA countries… SAARC focus on Soft power: SAF Game (Cricket), Music, Student, Scholar, Businessman, Artist Exchange Programs SAARC Scholarship, SAARC University, New Delhi Public diplomacy increase Cricket can unite South Asian people Cricket can unite South Asian people

25. Conclusion India role is important to make the SAARC effective If a strong country lead the regional organization, regional organization would be more effective. Lack of strong influential leadership, regional organization can not be work properly. Instead of passive organization, other countries can accept the leading role of India in SAARC Through deeper integration of SAARC countries, South Asia would be strong, peaceful and economically prosperous region of the world India role is important to make the SAARC effective If a strong country lead the regional organization, regional organization would be more effective. Lack of strong influential leadership, regional organization can not be work properly. Instead of passive organization, other countries can accept the leading role of India in SAARC Through deeper integration of SAARC countries, South Asia would be strong, peaceful and economically prosperous region of the world

26. Any Questions? Thank you very much !!!