1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 21 October 2009 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

3. Australia: Dry, cool weather was observed over most of Australia’s croplands during the previous 7 days. The GFS predicts the dry pattern to continue during the upcoming week. Southern Africa: Light showers fell across eastern corn-growing regions of southern Africa, while dry weather returned to Western Cape. The GFS predicts heavy rain across KwaZulu-Natal during the upcoming week. South America: Heavy rainfall occurred over portions of southern Brazil during the last 7 days. The GFS predicts heavy rain to move northward through eastern Brazil during the next two weeks. Highlights

4. ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. During the last 4-weeks (20 Sep – 17 Oct 2009), equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165E and 140W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Current Status The amplitude of the MJO index has increased during the previous week, with some eastward propagation, indicating a potentially developing MJO signal in the tropics.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml The GEFS predictions of the MJO index indicate a continued strengthening MJO during the next several days, with eastward propagation developing in week 2.

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South AmericaSouthern AfricaAustralia During the last 90 days, near- to above-average precipitation was observed across interior southern Africa, while below-average precipitation was observed over southern Mozambique and portions of eastern and southern South Africa. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/ Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days below-average precipitation was observed across northern South America southward through Argentina, contrasting with well above-average rains in southern Brazil. During the last 90 days, below- average rainfall dominated eastern Australia’s croplands. Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

7. Southern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During 12-18 October, anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulations were observed near Western Australia, off of Australia’s east coast, and in the southern Atlantic. Anomalous cyclonic circulation was observed from the eastern Pacific into Argentina. Below-average temperatures were observed across central and southeastern Australia and over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil. The average location of cold fronts during this period over South America and Australia are indicated by the dashed blue lines. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. A A A C C

8. Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During 12 – 18 October, anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over portions of eastern South America, and eastern southern Africa, while anomalous sinking motion (positive omega) was observed over Australia. Rainfall was observed over southern Brazil and eastern South Africa, while dry conditions dominated Australia during the last 7 days. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

9. Australia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, mostly dry weather was observed over Australia’s croplands, with light showers limited to portions of South Australia and near the Australian Alps.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, near-average rain fell across southeastern Australia’s wheat belt, while unfavorable dryness continued across northern New South Wales and Queensland.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days near-average rains fell across the western agricultural regions. Beneficial above-average rainfall was observed across South Australia and western Victoria, while dry conditions continued across northern New South Wales and all of Queensland’s crop areas.

13. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series depict the recent dryness across Western Australia and the continued dry conditions across southern Queensland. Above average rainfall was observed across southern Australian regions.

14. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean During October 14 – 20, below-average temperatures were observed over central and eastern Australia, with nighttime lows dipping below 5°C across portions of South Australia and Victoria (top left panel).

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 1-7 (21 – 27 Oct 2009), near-average rainfall is predicted across the Australian continent. Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Days 1-7

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009), near- to above-average rainfall is predicted across Australia’s southern states.

17. Forecast Verification: Australia Total Anomaly Forecast from 7 Oct 2009 Valid 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Forecast from 14 Oct 2009 Valid 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Observed 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Anomaly Total

18. Southern Africa Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 near-average rain fell across southern Botswana, central Zimbabwe, and South Africa’s eastern corn belt.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days above-average rainfall was observed across portions of central South Africa and Zaire, with dryness observed across NE South Africa and southern Mozambique.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days near- to above-average precipitation was observed across interior southern Africa contrasted with drier conditions farther east, notably eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique.

22. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall totals are above average across portions of Botswana and Zimbabwe (top left panel), and near average across South Africa’s corn belt.

23. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean During 14 – 20 October, near- to above-normal temperatures continued across eastern regions of southern Africa. Minimum temperatures remained well above freezing across southern African croplands.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (21 – 27 October), much above-average rainfall is predicted across South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal sugarcane regions, while near-average precipitation is expected elsewhere across southern Africa.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (28 Oct – 3 Nov), near- to above-average rainfall is predicted across southern Africa.

26. Forecast Verification: Southern Africa Total Anomaly Forecast from 7 Oct 2009 Valid 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Forecast from 14 Oct 2009 Valid 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Observed 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Anomaly Total

27. Brazil & Argentina Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly More widely scattered thunderstorms occurred over Brazil’s central-west farmlands, while abnormally heavy rainfall occurred over southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Parana, and eastern Paraguay. Favorable dryness overspread Rio Grande do Sul. Mostly dry weather returned to Argentina’s eastern croplands following last week’s rainfall.

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly During the last 15 days, above-average rainfall was observed extending from the central Amazon through western Bahia. Recent heavy rainfall occurred in portions of southern Brazil (Parana), while Rio Grande do Sul received near-average rainfall. Rainfall was observed across eastern Argentina, but amounts remained below average over the two-week period, especially across eastern La Pampa, western Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and northeastern cotton regions.

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly During the last 30 days a generally drier-than-average conditions were observed over most of northern and western South America, while above-average rainfall occurred in portions of southern and southeastern Brazil. Rainfall also occurred over portions of Brazil’s northeastern interior, although drier-than-average conditions prevailed over the coastal sugarcane plantations.

31. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall totals are above-average across southeastern Brazil, but below average elsewhere.

32. Temperature (°C) - Brazil Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean During 14 – 20 October, temperatures were near- to above average throughout Brazil.

33. Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Temperature (°C) - Argentina Based on GTS Stations (no QC) During 14–20 October, below-average temperatures were observed over Argentina’s southern croplands. Near-average temperatures were observed across northern Argentina, with highs reaching 35-40ºC into Santiago del Estero. Sub-freezing temperatures were observed for the fourth consecutive week across southern Buenos Aires.

34. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (21 – 27 Oct 2009), much above-average rainfall is predicted for Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espirito Santo. Below-average rainfall is predicted across Rio Grande do Sul.

35. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 21 Oct 2009 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (28 Oct – 3 Nov 2009), much above-average rainfall is predicted for central Brazil, including Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and Bahia. Below-average rainfall is predicted across northwestern South America, Paraguay and portions of southeastern Brazil.

36. Forecast Verification: South America Total Anomaly Forecast from 7 Oct 2009 Valid 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Forecast from 14 Oct 2009 Valid 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Observed 14 – 20 Oct 2009 Anomaly Total

37. USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars