1. Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 October 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

3. Canada and US: Remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole combined with an anomalous upper air low to the west brought flooding rains from the Carolinas to eastern Canada, while above-average temperatures prevailed from the Canadian Prairies to the West. For the next 7 days the GFS forecasts dry conditions for the eastern Corn Belt while dry conditions continue across the southeast. Near average precipitation is expected for most of Alaska. Mexico and Central America: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Nicole affected parts of the western Caribbean, with enhanced rains also observed for much of Central America. Over the next 7 days the GFS forecasts dry conditions for most of Central America and Mexico, but with enhanced rainfall for the Panama Canal. Eurasia: Below average temperatures prevailed in Europe, while above-average rainfall was observed over Indonesia partly due to background La Nina conditions. Over the next 7 days the GFS predicts dry conditions for northwest Russia, India and southeast Asia with slightly enhanced precipitation for southern Europe. Highlights

4. ENSO Current Status For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml During the last 4-weeks (5 Sep – 2 Oct 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below-average between 165°E and the South American coast with some areas recording departures in excess of -2.0°C east of the International Date Line. General Summary: La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is expected to last at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.

5. MJO Current Status  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml The MJO signal has strengthened during the past week. The GEFS forecast shows continued strengthening of the MJO signal with eastward propagation across the Maritime Continent. The MJO forecast favors enhanced rainfall for Indonesia over the next week.

6. Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/ Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoonal precipitation is near average across the Southwest US. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near to below average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days above average rainfall has occurred in Indochina and eastern China. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEPMonsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

7. Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (26 Sep – 2 Oct 2010), anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation centers were located over the northern Rockies and the northeast Atlantic. Anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation centers were located over the northeast Pacific, the southeast US and northeast Europe. During the 7-day period below-average temperatures prevailed in Europe with above-average temperatures over western North America, northeast Africa and central Russia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. C A C C A C

8. Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (26 Sep – 2 Oct 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over western Canada, the eastern US into the western Caribbean, southern Mexico, central Russia, Africa, and southeastern China (top panel red ovals). During the same time period precipitation was observed over the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

9. Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, an anomalous upper air low combined with the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole brought flooding rains from the Carolinas to eastern Canada, which helped ease increasing drought conditions. Some locations in North Carolina set record daily rainfall totals. Drier than average weather occurred behind this system across the Mississippi Valley region.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, while dry conditions have prevailed for most of the eastern states over the past few weeks, recent very heavy rains led to above-average rainfall. Below-average precipitation has also been observed across the southern Rockies, the southeast US and Alaska. Above-average rains fell in the Plains, the northern Rockies and in parts of the Canadian Prairies.

13. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

14. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Maximum During the past 7 days, a return to above-average temperatures was observed in the Canadian Prairies; in southeast Canada temperatures were near average in Ontario and slightly above-average in Quebec. High temperatures reached the upper 20s to low 30s degrees C in parts of the Canadian Prairies. AnomalyExtreme Maximum

15. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Maximum Temperatures were well above average across the West and near to below average from the Plains to the southeastern states. Low temperatures remained above freezing in the eastern Corn Belt, but a few light freezes were observed in the upper Midwest. Temperatures were near average in Mexico. AnomalyExtreme Maximum

16. TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 04 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 drier than average weather is forecast for the east-central US and in the southeast, with wetter than average weather forecast for the British Columbia coast.

17. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 near average precipitation is forecast for many areas in Canada and the US, except for the southeast where drier than average weather is forecast. Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Week 2

18. Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 20 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep - 3 Oct 2010 Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Observed 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Anomaly Total

19. Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly For more information see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf During the past 7 days, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Nicole affected parts of Cuba and Jamaica, while enhanced rains also fell across western Central America and southern Mexico.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

22. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, above-average precipitation has occurred across southern Mexico and much of Central America due to recent tropical cyclone activity.

23. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 drier than average weather is expected for most of Central America and Mexico, while wetter than average conditions are forecast for the Panama Canal.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010– Week 2 For Days 8-14 below-average conditions are expected to continue across Central America and Mexico, with wet conditions continuing across the Panama Canal.

26. Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 20 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Observed 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Anomaly Total

27. Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, heavy rain impacted southern China and much of Indonesia. Below- average rainfall fell across India and parts of southeast Asia. Slightly enhanced rains also fell in parts of eastern Europe and western Russia.

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days precipitation has been above average in western Africa, most of India, eastern China, and Indonesia. Precipitation has been below average in east-central Africa and in parts of central Russia.

31. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

32. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Maximum AnomalyExtreme Maximum Temperatures were below-average in Europe. Scattered light freezes were observed in Latvia, Lithuania and extreme northern Poland. Temperatures were near average in northwest Africa.

33. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Maximum Temperatures were above average in southern western FSU districts, and near average in the remainder of the western FSU. Light freezes were observed over the northern half of the region. Temperatures were above average in the New Lands, with light freezes confined to the Urals District.

34. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

35. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Maximum Near average were observed over India for a third week. In China, temperatures were cooler than average across northern and central China. A few freezes were observed in northern China.

36. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7 For more information on Global Tropical Hazards see: (updated Monday at 4pm) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz.shtml For Days 1-7 slightly enhanced wetness is expected for southern Europe, while dry conditions are forecast for northwest Russia, central India and parts of interior southeast Asia. La Nina conditions and a strengthening MJO signal favor enhanced odds for above-average precipitation in Indonesia.

37. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 dry conditions are forecast to continue in India and southern China, while enhanced rains are forecast for parts of Indonesia. Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Week 2

38. Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 20 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Observed 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Anomaly Total

39. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) Hazards Impacts Assessments for Central America http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf Africa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/africa_hazard.pdf Afghanistan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/AFGHANISTAN/afghanistan_hazard.pdf Meteorological Products for the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS) Asia Flood Network (AFN) Funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

40. USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars