1. Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 January 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

3. Canada and US: An arctic cold airmass settled into the central, eastern and southeastern US, leading to well below normal temperatures and freezes as far south and central Florida. For the upcoming week, an active southern branch of the jetstream is expected to bring a series of storms and above average precipitation to the southern tier of the US. Mexico and Central America: Heavy rain impacted Belize and surrounding areas for a second week, and freezing temperatures pushed further south into north-central Mexico. Eurasia: A major winter storm brought heavy snow to England during the past week, with above average precipitation falling across southern Europe. The GFS forecasts above average precipitation across Turkey and Indonesia. Highlights

4. ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC - 2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010. During the last 4 weeks (13 Dec 2009 – 9 Jan 2010), SSTs were generally at least 1.5-2.0 deg C above average in the equatorial Pacific Ocean east of the date line. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Current Status The MJO index indicated an increase in amplitude and very fast eastward propagation during late December. In recent days, the MJO index movement has slowed. The GFS MJO index forecasts indicate only minor eastward propagation during the next two weeks. The signal is generally focused across the Maritime Continent over the period. There is considerable ensemble spread over the period.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/ Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over the southwest US while near average rainfall has occurred over northwest Mexico. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Below average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in parts of China. Above average rainfall has occurred in the Philippines due in part to tropical cyclone activity. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

7. Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( 3 Jan 2010 - 9 Jan 2010), anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation centers were located over the eastern US, northwest Europe and northwest Pacific Ocean. Anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation centers were located over the western US, central Atlantic and south Asia. During the same 7-day period below average temperatures were observed over the eastern US, northern Europe, central Russia, and east Asia, and above average temperatures were observed over northeast Canada, northern Africa, and southern Europe. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. C CA A C A

8. Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( 3 Jan 2010 - 9 Jan 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the northwest US, Mexico, Europe and parts of central and western Russia. (top panel red ovals). During the 7 day period (3 Jan 2010 – 9 Jan 2010) precipitation was observed over most of the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

9. Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, above average precipitation was observed over the northwest US and parts of western Canada, and below average precipitation was observed over the southeast US.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, below average precipitation was observed over the Alaska Panhandle and the southwest and southeast US. Near average precipitation was observed over much of Canada.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation was below average in the southwest US and the Alaskan panhandle and above average in the southeast and northwest US.

13. 30 day rainfall totals are near average in the northwest US, below average in northern California and the central US, and above average in Florida. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

14. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were below normal in the western Canadian Prairies and in southeastern Canada. Low temperatures dropped below -20 deg C over most of southern Canada, and dropped below -40 deg C in parts of the Canadian Prairies. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

15. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum Temperatures were well below normal across much of the central, eastern and southeastern US, consistent with the very negative Artic Oscillation (AO) pattern that has been in place since mid December. Lows in the single digits were felt as far south as central Texas, and freezing temperatures were observed in central Florida. Temperatures were near to below average over eastern Mexico and above average over Baja California. Below freezing temperatures pushed southward into north-central Mexico. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

16. TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Jan 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 above average precipitation is forecast for the west coast and southeast US. This is consistent with the current warm phase of ENSO.

17. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 near to above average precipitation is forecast for the southwest, Midwest and southeast US, with below average precipitation over western Canada and the Alaska Panhandle. Forecasts from 11 Jan 2010 – Week 2

18. Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 28 Dec 2009 Valid 4 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Forecast from 4 Jan 2010 Valid 4 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Observed 4 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Anomaly Total NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

19. Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, above average precipitation was observed over Honduras with near average precipitation observed over northern and central Mexico. For more information see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in Belize, northern Guatemala and Honduras.

22. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was below average in northwest Mexico and above average in much of Central America.

23. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are slightly below average in central Mexico, and above average in southern Mexico, Nicaragua/Honduras, and northeast Mexico.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 11 Jan 2010 – Week 1 For Days 1-7 below average precipitation is forecast for the Yucatan peninsula and Panama, with near average precipitation for the remainder of Mexico and Central America.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is forecast for the Yucatan peninsula, Panama, and southern Mexico. Forecasts from 11 Jan 2010– Week 2

26. Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 28 Dec 2009 Valid 4 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Forecast from 4 Jan 2010 Valid 4 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Observed 4 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Anomaly Total NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

27. Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, near to above average precipitation was observed over southern Europe, parts of southeast Asia and Indonesia. Near average precipitation was observed across China and Russia. A major winter storm brought heavy snow to England during the early part of the period.

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, near to above average precipitation was observed over southern Europe, western Russia, central Africa, and Indonesia. Near average precipitation was observed in northern China.

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in southern Europe, western Russia, parts of the Middle East, eastern China, east-central Africa, and Indonesia. Below average precipitation fell over northern Russia.

31. 30 day rainfall totals are slightly below average in France, above average in eastern Ukraine, Hungary and in central Russia. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

32. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past 7 days temperatures were above average across southeast Europe and below average over northern Europe. Freezes were observed as far south as Spain and central Italy. Most of Europe was under at least light snow cover. In northwest Africa temperatures were above average with low temperatures between 0 and 10 deg C in most areas.

33. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were below average in most of Russia and above average across southern Kazakhstan. Russia and northern Kazakhstan are under snow cover.

34. 30 day rainfall totals are above average in Gujarat, southern India and eastern China, and slightly below average in Luzon. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

35. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were generally seasonable in India and below average in the North China Plain. Lows dropped below -20 deg C in the North China Plain and hovered near freezing near the Yangtze River valley.

36. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 11 Jan 2010 – Week 1 For more information on Tropical Hazards see: (updated on Tuesdays) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz.shtml For Days 1-7 near to below average precipitation is expected in Europe and in east-central Africa, and above average precipitation is expected over parts of Turkey and in parts of Indonesia.

37. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 near to below average precipitation is expected in Europe and east-central Africa, and above average precipitation is expected over southern China and Indochina. Forecasts from 11 Jan 2010 – Week 2

38. Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 28 Dec 2009 Valid 04 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Forecast from 4 Jan 2009 Valid 4 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Observed 4 Jan – 10 Jan 2010 Anomaly Total NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

39. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) Hazards Impacts Assessments for Central America http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf Africa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/africa_hazard.pdf Afghanistan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/AFGHANISTAN/afghanistan_hazard.pdf Meteorological Products for the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS) Asia Flood Network (AFN) Funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

40. USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars