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Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 17, 2004 2004 guidance update & 2005 targets.

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Presentation on theme: "Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 17, 2004 2004 guidance update & 2005 targets."— Presentation transcript:

1 Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 17, 2004 2004 guidance update & 2005 targets

2 2 forward-looking statement This presentation and answers to questions contain forward- looking statements about expected future events including a normal course issuer bid, dividends and financial and operating results that are subject to risks and uncertainties. TELUS’ actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. For additional information on potential risk factors, see TELUS’ 2004 Annual Information Form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada and the United States. TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. all dollars in Cdn$ unless otherwise specified

3 3 approx. $1.3BCapex  $1.50 to 1.55  $3.05 to 3.1B on-track/ updated 2004 guidance $1.25 to 1.3B 2 $1.40 to 1.50 $3.025 to 3.075B $7.5 to 7.575B previous 2004 guidance 1 EPS Free Cash Flow EBITDA Revenue 2.2X or lessNet Debt : EBITDA revised 2004 guidance - consolidated 1 Previously updated October 29, 2004. 2 See definition in December 17 th, 2004 news release. Excludes US $125M from Verizon. guidance changes reflect stronger profitability outlook at TELUS Mobility

4 4 $(30) to (35)M Non-ILEC EBITDA approx. $950M $1.925 to 1.95B $525 to 550M $4.725 to 4.775B previous 2004 guidance 1 EBITDA Capex Non-ILEC revenue Revenue (external) approx. 125KHigh-speed net adds 2004 TELUS Communications guidance 1 Previously updated October 29, 2004. Non-ILEC guidance revised upwards  $545 to 555M  $(20) to (25)M on-track/ updated 2004 guidance

5 5 425 to 475KWireless net adds  $1.125 to 1.15B on-track/ updated 2004 guidance approx. $350M $1.1 to 1.125B $2.775 to 2.8B previous 2004 guidance 1 Capex EBITDA Revenue (external) revised 2004 guidance – Mobility 1 Previously updated October 29, 2004. wireless EBITDA revised upwards

6 6  Enhancing our leadership position in wireless  Growing brand through superior customer service  Embracing continual cost efficiency  Revitalizing wireline revenue growth  Driving towards leadership position in high-speed Internet  Reaching a collective agreement deferred to 2005 on-going 2004 TELUS corporate priorities on-going on track

7 7 Enhancing our leadership in wireless  TELUS Mobility ranked #1 throughout 2004 1 2004 corporate priorities 1.TELUS Mobility 2.Verizon Wireless 3.Nextel TELUS Mobility named top operator in North America 1 Source: N. Moore Capital.

8 8  Strong and consistent brand across wireline and wireless  Wireline service levels substantially improved since the end of 2003  Wireless best-in-class service levels as evidenced by low churn operating at superior levels of customer service 2004 corporate priorities Growing brand value, superior customer service

9 9 Operational Efficiency Program (OEP) – 2001 to 2003  Cumulative annual savings of $530 to 535M YE 2004 & onward 2004  Consolidated IT operations from 15 to 2 locations  Combining Business & Client Solutions  $50M in restruct. & workforce reduction costs expected continued focus on institutionalizing cost efficiency delivering wireline operational efficiency 2004 corporate priorities

10 10  “future friendly” home  continued high-speed Internet growth  Home Networking and HomeSitter TM launched  Bundling & price increases  bundling strategy put in place to protect legacy revenues  LD plan administrative charges increased  Geographic expansion  Refocused on high quality, recurring, IP-based revenues in non- ILEC to leverage Next Generation Network (NGN) leadership revitalizing wireline growth consumer: business: 2004 corporate priorities recent wireline revenue performance superior to peers

11 11 Total Internet subscribers 69% High Speed 31% Dial-up 948K continued high speed market share growth - on track to achieve 2004 annual target of 125K net additions 37% 32% 39% TELUS high-speed market share 1 Q3-03Q3-02Q3-04 1 In ILEC operating areas driving towards leadership in high speed Internet 2004 corporate priorities

12 12  Unionized employees in West without new contract  Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) required TELUS to offer binding arbitration to union & imposed a communications ban  Waiting for CIRB reconsideration decision  CIRB separately ruled TELUS Mobility employees in East be swept into union reaching a collective agreement 2004 corporate priorities

13 2005 targets

14 14  economic growth consistent with Conference Board of Cda  no workforce disruption  increased competitive activity from IP telephony players  wireless industry penetration expansion of about 4% points  $100M of restr. & workforce reduction costs ($50M in 2004)  pension expense increase of $15 to 25M in 2005 vs. 2004 (Discount rate 6.0% vs. 6.25%, return on plan assets 7.25% vs. 7.5%)  effective tax rate of ~36% plus Large Corporations Tax  average shares outstanding of 340 to 360M depending on NCIB  NCIB effective December 20, 2004 2005 guidance considerations

15 Communications Segment

16 16 revenue target revenue flat as new sources offset by losses due to competitive erosion & technological substitution 4.725 to 4.775 4.79 4.70 to 4.75 2004E20032005E Revenue ($B) 2005 Communications segment

17 17 EBITDA (before restructuring) EBITDA essentially flat before restructuring costs 1.975 to 2.00 2.03 1.95 to 2.00 2004E20032005E EBITDA (before restructuring costs, $B) 2005 Communications segment

18 18 EBITDA target slight decline in EBITDA reflects restructuring costs 1.925 to 1.95 2.00 1.85 to 1.90 2004E20032005E EBITDA 1 ($B) 2005 Communications segment 1 Includes restructuring & workforce reduction costs of $28M in 2003, and $50M and $100M in 2004E and 2005E, respectively.

19 19 555 545 to 555 20032004E 600 to 650 2005E 9 to 18% non-ILEC growth in Central Canada focused on recurring data and IP revenues in the business market 2005 Communications segment non-ILEC revenue target Revenue ($M)

20 20 (20) to (25) (29) 2003 2004E 2005E targeting positive non-ILEC EBITDA in 2005 non-ILEC EBITDA target 2005 Communications segment 0 to 10 2002 (107) EBITDA ($M)

21 21 change2005 target Capex Intensity 1 2005 Communications segment Capex target 18% ~ 20% 20 to 21% 20032004E2005E  $0 to 50M$950 to 1,000MCapex 1 Ratio of capex to total revenues

22 22 152 ~787 562 2003 2004E ~100 Subscriber base Net additions (000s) ~125 ~687 2005E 2005 Communications segment 100K target reflects obtaining continuing majority share of net adds in a maturing market high-speed Internet net additions target 2005E Total Internet subs. High Speed Dial-up > 1M

23 Mobility Segment

24 24 revenue target 2005 Mobility segment 15 to 17% revenue growth driven by continued strong subscriber growth & premium ARPU 2.775 to 2.80 2.36 3.20 to 3.25 2004E20032005E Revenue ($B)

25 25 (000s) subscriber net additions target 3,424 418 425 to 475 3,850 to 3,900 Subscriber base Net additions 2005E 2003 2004E 4,300 to 4,350 Target 425 to 475K net adds 2005 net additions consistent with 2004 2005 Mobility segment

26 26 19 to 23% EBITDA growth driven by strong revenue growth and continued cost containment 2005 Mobility segment EBITDA target 1.125 to 1.15 0.82 1.35 to 1.40 2004E20032005E EBITDA ($B)

27 27  $0 to 50M$350 to 400MCapex change2005 target capex target 2003 2004E 2005E 15% ~13% 11 to 12% Capex intensity 1 1 Ratio of capex to total revenues Mobility cash flow increasing by 27% to ~$1B 2005 Mobility segment

28 28 11 to 12%Capex intensity 2 EBITDA margin (total revenue) 42 to 43% Cash flow yield 3 ~31% 2005E 1 Based on updated December 17, 2004 guidance 2 Capex as % of total revenue 3 EBITDA less capex, as a % of total revenue ~13% ~40% ~28% 2004E 1 Operating cash flow yield Attractive wireless cash flow yield 2005 Mobility segment

29 29 31% 24% 19% 22% 15% 6% TELUS Nextel Rogers Verizon PCS Cingular 1 North America comparison – cash flow yield 1 Includes AT&T Wireless Source: Morgan Stanley estimates EBITDA less Capex / Total Revenue targeted cash flow yield of 31% in 2005 is best in class 2005 Mobility segment (6)% T-Mobile

30 30 Cash flow profile  Mobility as % of total consolidated Mobility expected to represent 53% of TELUS’ consolidated cash flow 37% 29% 42% 2004E20032005E 44% 29% 53% 2004E20032005E EBITDA EBITDA less capex 2005 Mobility segment

31 TELUS Consolidated

32 32 2005 consolidated targets – revenue & EBITDA 5 to 6% revenue & 4 to 7% EBITDA growth driven by strong wireless performance 7.5 to 7.575 7.15 7.9 to 8.0 2004E20032005E Revenue ($B) 3.05 to 3.1 2.82 3.2 to 3.3 2004E20032005E EBITDA ($B)

33 33 2005 consolidated targets – EPS earnings growth of 8 to 21% driven by strong wireless performance 1.50 to 1.55 0.92 1.65 to 1.85 2004E20032005E EPS 1 ($) 1 Includes positive impacts from settlement of tax matters of approx. $0.20 in 2003, and $0.17 Sep. YTD 2004.

34 34 1.50 to 1.55 1.65 to 1.85 incremental change 1.33 to 1.38  0.04  0.01 to 0.07  0.36 to 0.45 2004E 2005E 2004E normal. EBITDA growth Financing Costs Other 2005 consolidated targets – EPS continuity  0.12 tax ($) Normalized EPS growth of 22 to 37%  0.05 interest Settlement of tax matters Restruct. Costs  0.09

35 35 2005 consolidated targets – capex capex intensity stable ~17% 18% 16 to 18% 2004E20032005E  $0 to 100M$1,300 to 1,400MCapex change2005 target Capex intensity 1 1 Ratio of capex to total revenues

36 36 2005 consolidated targets – free cash flow 2005E ($M) 20 Add back: option & RSU expense less RSU cash paid (10) Net cash income tax ~(625) Net cash interest paid (1,300 to 1,400) Capital expenditures $3,200 to 3,300 EBITDA (after rest. & workforce reduction costs) ~1,200 to 1,300 Free Cash Flow (per public guidance methodology) (35) Cash restructuring pmts (in excess of 2005 expense) free cash flow generation remains strong

37 37 <2.2x2.2x2.7x3.3xNet Debt : EBITDA 53.7% 2003 49.7% Sept. 30 2004 Net Debt : Capital Long-term Policy 2002 45 to 50% 57.1% Current leverage within long-term policy 2005 consolidated targets – leverage

38 38  Quarterly dividend  33% to 20¢ for Jan. 1, 2005  New dividend payout ratio guideline of 45 to 55% of net earnings  Normal Course Issuer Bid for 25.5M TELUS shares  Effective Dec 20, 2004  Measures to restrict issue of TELUS shares  Verizon transaction increases liquidity recent shareholder value enhancing initiatives balanced approach to stakeholder interests

39 39  0 to 8%$1.3 to 1.4BCapex  8 to 21%$1.65 to 1.85EPS  4 to 7% change EBITDA 1 Revenue 2005 targets $3.2 to 3.3B $7.9 to 8.0B 1 Includes ~$100M in restructuring & workforce reduction costs Free Cash Flow $1.2 to 1.3B  5 to 6% 2005 targets reflect solid revenue & earnings growth 2005 consolidated targets summary -

40 40  Enhance our leadership position in wireless  Grow brand value through superior customer experience (via leading IP services and customer care)  Embrace continual improvement in productivity  Leverage our investments in high speed Internet through Future Friendly home services  Accelerate performance in Central Canada  Reach a new collective agreement that reflects competitive industry corporate priorities for 2005 2005 priorities consistent with 2004

41 41  2004 earnings outlook revised upwards  2005 targets reflect:  strong revenue growth driven by Mobility  healthy wireless & high-speed Internet subscriber expansion  good EBITDA growth despite increased restructuring charges  strong EPS growth  continued strong cash flows & attractive FCF yield summary

42 questions?

43 investor relations 1-800-667-4871 telus.com ir@telus.com


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