1. Weather Briefing February 11, 2013 National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI http://www.weather.gov/dtx Email: w-dtx.webmaster@noaa.gov w-dtx.webmaster@noaa.gov

2. Decision Support Briefing Highlights Event Summary Southwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 MPH A wind advisory is in effect 9 AM to 10 PM today All of Southeast Michigan Forecast Map For Monday

3. Decision Support Briefing Highlights Event Summary 6-10” of Snow and Gusty Winds Winter Storm Watch in Effect Friday and into Saturday All of Southeast Michigan Forecast for Friday (24 hrs)

4. Decision Support Briefing Highlights Event Summary 6-10” of Snow and Gusty Winds Winter Storm Watch in Effect Friday and into Saturday All of Southeast Michigan Forecast for Friday (36 hrs)

5. Decision Support Briefing Highlights Event Summary 6-10” of Snow and Gusty Winds Winter Storm Watch in Effect Friday and into Saturday All of Southeast Michigan Forecast for Friday (48 hrs)

6. www.weather.gov/detroit Winter Hazard Risk Assessment ExtremeHigh Moderate Low Little Disruption to Daily Life Rarely Directly Life Threatening Recovery Time Around When Weather Hazard Ends This Event is a Common Event Extreme: - Historic Weather Hazard/Event - Life Threatening - Total disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: days to one week High: - Rare Weather Hazard/Event - Potentially Life Threatening - Widespread disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: hours to a day Moderate: - Occasional Weather Hazard/Event - Rarely directly life threatening - Some disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: +/- 6 hrs of when weather ends

7. www.weather.gov/detroit Winter Hazard Risk Assessment ExtremeHigh Moderate Low Some Disruption to Daily Life Rarely Directly Life Threatening Recovery Time +/- 6 Hours of When Weather Hazard Ends This Event is an Occasional Weather Event Extreme: - Historic Weather Hazard/Event - Life Threatening - Total disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: days to one week High: - Rare Weather Hazard/Event - Potentially Life Threatening - Widespread disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: hours to a day Moderate: - Occasional Weather Hazard/Event - Rarely directly life threatening - Some disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: +/- 6 hrs of when weather ends

8. www.weather.gov/detroit Winter Watch Hazard Risk Assessment ExtremeHigh Moderate Low Potential to Cause Disruption to Daily Life Recovery Time Around When Weather Hazard Ends to around a Day This Potential Event is an Occasional to Rare Weather Event Extreme: - Historic Weather Hazard/Event - Life Threatening - Total disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: days to one week High: - Rare Weather Hazard/Event - Potentially Life Threatening - Widespread disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: hours to a day Moderate: - Occasional Weather Hazard/Event - Rarely directly life threatening - Some disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: +/- 6 hrs of when weather ends

9. www.weather.gov/detroit Hazard Risk Assessment Hazard Risk AssessmentExtremeHigh Moderate Low Minor Disruption to Daily Life Rarely Life Threatening This Event is an Occasional Weather Event Extreme: - Historic Weather Hazard/Event - Life Threatening - Total disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: days to one week High: - Rare Weather Hazard/Event - Potentially Life Threatening - Widespread disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: hours to a day Moderate: - Occasional Weather Hazard/Event - Rarely directly life threatening - Some disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: +/- 6 hrs of when weather ends

10. www.weather.gov/detroit Winter Watch Hazard Risk Assessment ExtremeHigh Moderate Low Potential to Cause Total Disruption to Daily Life Potentially Life Threatening Recovery Time Several Hours to One Week This Potential Event is a Rare to Historic Weather Event Extreme: - Historic Weather Hazard/Event - Life Threatening - Total disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: days to one week High: - Rare Weather Hazard/Event - Potentially Life Threatening - Widespread disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: hours to a day Moderate: - Occasional Weather Hazard/Event - Rarely directly life threatening - Some disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: +/- 6 hrs of when weather ends

11. www.weather.gov/detroit Winter Hazard Risk Assessment ExtremeHigh Moderate Low Total Disruption of Daily Life Life Threatening Recovery Time Days to One Week After Weather Ends This Event is an Historic Weather Event Extreme: - Historic Weather Hazard/Event - Life Threatening - Total disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: days to one week High: - Rare Weather Hazard/Event - Potentially Life Threatening - Widespread disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: hours to a day Moderate: - Occasional Weather Hazard/Event - Rarely directly life threatening - Some disruption of daily life - Recovery Time: +/- 6 hrs of when weather ends

12. Power Outage Potential HighMediumLow www.weather.gov/detroit Potential Impacts Scattered power outages are possible. Temperatures will drop into the 20s tonight. Driving high profile vehicles may be difficult. Small tree branches may be blown down.

13. www.weather.gov/detroit Timing of the Winds Beginning Winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH late this morning. Strongest Strongest winds will occur between 1 PM and 7 PM today. Sustained southwest winds will be 20 to 30 MPH with frequent gusts of 45 to 50 MPH. Ending Winds will decrease tonight, with wind gusts expected to drop below 40 MPH after 10 PM. Hourly Wind Gust Probabilities

14. Wind Gusts at 1 pm today. Wind Gusts are in knots. 39 knots equals 45 mph. www.weather.gov/detroit Wind Gust Graphics

15. Wind Gusts at 4 pm today. Wind Gusts are in knots. 39 knots equals 45 mph. www.weather.gov/detroit Wind Gust Graphics

16. www.weather.gov/detroit Forecast Challenges There is still some uncertainty as to how deep the low pressure system tracking across Northern Michigan on Monday will be. How well the strong wind gusts are able to mix down to the surface is also a little uncertain at this time. There is a potential for wind gusts to exceed 50 MPH, which would result in more widespread power outages.

17. www.weather.gov/detroit Storm Total Snowfall Friday to Sunday Snow Total for the Next xx Hours (in inches) Type of Snow Light and Fluffy / Wet and Heavy / Mix of Heavy and Fluffy Snow Accumulation 8 to 10 inches: I-96 and north 6 to 8 inches: Remainder of Central Lower Additional Hazards Winds Wind Chill Mixed Precipitation Visibilities

18. Forecast Challenges And Text too www.weather.gov/detroit

19. Decision Support Briefing Summary WhatWhereTimingImpacts Strong Winds Gusting 45 to 50 MPH All of Southeast Michigan 9 AM to 10 PM Potential for Scattered Power Outages www.weather.gov/detroit

20. Additional Information NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI http://www.weather.gov/dtx Email: w-dtx.webmaster@noaa.gov w-dtx.webmaster@noaa.gov Local Hazards Page http://www.weather.gov/detroit/svr.php Great Lakes Marine Portal http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes Hourly Wind Probabilities http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?n=pwind Hourly Snowfall Probabilities http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?n=hourlysnowprobabilities