2. The Last Word: Assignment 7, 8 due Tuesday Consider: Why do we have the Electoral College?

3. AP Government and Politics Unit 3

4. Elements of Presidential Campaigns  Money – over $3 billion spent in 2012 Much spent on advertising What is the overall impact of TV political ads (spots) on voters?  Organization – staff to run campaign  Theme and Strategy ○ Tone – positive or negative ○ Theme Trust, competence, stay the course, change, compassionate conservatism ○ Timing – early primaries, Go for broke or hold back reserves ○ Targets – which voters? Only some change votes from one election to next.  Issues ○ Position (two sides) vs. Valence (one side, who’s better) Valence becoming more important  Televised Debates ○ Why would incumbent NOT want to debate a challenger?

5. 12.2 Primaries and Caucuses  Methods to select delegates Winner-take-all primary Proportional representation primary Caucus  Selecting a system  Frontloading  Why might some states want to move the date of their primary forward?

6. Republican Primaries/ Caucuses for the 2012 election  January 3 rd, 2012 – Iowa caucuses  January 10 th – New Hampshire primary  January 21 st – South Carolina primary  January 31 st – Florida primary  February 4 th – Nevada caucuses  March 6 th ( SUPER TUESDAY )- primaries in… Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia  **April 24 th – Pennsylvania primary  June 5 th – California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota  June 26 th – Utah Why might some states want to move the date of their primary forward?

7. When do states choose their nominee for president?

8. Super Tuesday Many states had both their 2012 Democratic and Republican primaries on that day…. Many states had both their 2012 Democratic and Republican primaries on that day…. ○ Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia Candidates can take a huge lead, become a front- runner, or drop out Candidates can take a huge lead, become a front- runner, or drop out Name for the day in a presidential campaign when many states hold their primaries. In the 2012 campaign, Super Tuesday fell on March 6 th ( usually in Feb)

9. 12.2 Electing a President: The Electoral College  Historical challenges Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, 1800 John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson, 1824 George W. Bush and Al Gore, 2000

10. The Electoral College  What is it?  Why is it used? Federalism Framers fear that voters would not know enough about national candidates ○ Communication ○ Transportation ○ Information  How are the votes/voters determined?  What are the consequences, both good and bad, of using this system?

11. How is voting power apportioned in the EC? 12.2

13. Electing a President: The Electoral College  Should the Electoral College be reformed? Abolish in favor of popular vote Congressional district plan Proportional votes by state

15. The Last Word: Assignment 9 due tomorrow Consider: If we dislike DC so much, why do elected officials win re-election so much?

16.  Which states have the “first in the nation” caucus and primary?  Why do many states want to move their primaries earlier in the year?  What are “super-delegates”?  When voters select a candidate, who are they really choosing?  How many electoral votes are there in the country?  How is a states EV total determined?  Why do we have the Electoral College?

17. The Last Word: Assignment 8 due tomorrow Consider: If we dislike DC so much, why do elected officials win re-election so often?

18. Presidential and Congressional Elections  Congressional races are different from Prez races in several ways Prez races are more competitive, last longer Turnout lower in midterms ○ Changes appeal to voters MoCs can help constituents in ways president cannot MoCs can “run against DC” – how is this possible? MoCs sometimes enjoy protection/insulated from party of president ○ Coattail effect has lessened as people vote split ticket more often ○ This also illustrates weakening effects of party

19. 12.3 The Incumbency Advantage  Staff Support Directly or indirectly support incumbent through constituent service  Visibility Easy access to local media Generous travel allowances  Scare-off effect Challengers shy away from incumbent’s institutional advantage

20. Getting back to the House…

21. Senate re-election rates

23. 12.3 Why Incumbents Lose  Redistricting Can punish incumbents in the out-of-power party (at the state level)  Scandals Sexual improprieties or other offenses– Trey Radel?  Presidential Coattails Incumbent presidential election loss can trickle down  Mid-Term Elections Can threaten incumbents of president’s party

24. How does the president affect congressional elections?