1. Demographic
Transition
Model

2. Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000

3. Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates
Population Change
Outputs
Inputs
Deaths
Births
Natural Increase
Total
Population
Emigrants
Immigrants
Migration
The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration
Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates

4. World Population Changes

5. Global Natural Increase

6. Doubling Time
This map shows how long it will take for countries to double their population if it continued to grow at the present rate

7. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5 ?
Total
Population
Natural
Increase
In Population
Natural
Decrease
In Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate

8. Stage 1 High Fluctuating
Low population
Increasing very slowly
High birth rate
High death rate
Ethiopia/Niger
UK: pre-1780
Stage 1
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Total
Population

9. Stage 2 Early Expanding Population growing at faster rate
High but decreasing birth rate
Decreasing death rate
Sri Lanka/Bolivia
UK:
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Total
Population

10. Stage 3 Late Expanding
Stage 3
Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down
Decreasing birth rate
Low death rate
Uruguay/China
UK:
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate

11. Stage 4 Low Fluctuating High population, almost stable Low birth rate
Low death rate
Canada/USA
UK: post-1940
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate

12. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Total
Population
Natural
Increase
In Population
Natural
Decrease
In Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Ethiopia/
Niger
UK:
pre-1780
Sri Lanka/
Bolivia
UK:
Uruguay/
China
UK:
Canada/
USA
UK:
Post-1940

13. What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?

14. Reasons for Stage 1 High Fluctuating
Little access to birth control
Many children die in infancy so parents have more to compensate
Children are needed to work on the land
Some religions encourage large families
Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science
Stage 1
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Total
Population

15. Reasons for Stage 2 Early Expanding
Improvements in medical care
Improvements in sanitation and water supply
Quality and quantity of food produced improves
Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies
Decrease in infant mortality
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Total
Population

16. Reasons for Stage 3 Late Expanding
Increased access to contraception
Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families
Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required
As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families
Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home
Stage 3
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate

17. Reasons for Stage 4 Low Fluctuating
Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases
Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate

18. Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population
Is there a Stage 5? ? ? ?
Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population

19. What limitations do you think there could be with the model?
It does not include the influences of migration
It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern
There is no time scale
Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries
And finally, is there a stage 5?

20. The End?
Adapted from Alsager School – with thanks.