1. The Financial Crisis 2007
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

2. Capitalism = ‘boom’ and ‘bust’
First paper banknote issued by John Law 1714
Capitalism = ‘boom’ and ‘bust’
some recent crises:
Tulip mania - Netherlands 1637
South Seas Bubble, UK 1720
The Mississippi Bubble, France 1720, John Law, first paper money
Panic of 1819 – USA
The Long Depression 1876 – 1896 UK, USA, Europe
Panic of 1907
Wall Street Crash – 1929, Great Depression
Oil crisis 1973 (UK – IMF in 1976)
Savings and Loan Scandal, USA, , US$ 125 bn bailout
Japanese asset bubble – ?
Mexico 1994
Asian financial crisis (“IMF crisis”) – Thailand, Indonesia,
South Korea,Philippines,
Russian financial crisis 1998
Dot-com bubble
Argentina defaults – largest debt default in history
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

3. Or The End of Economic Theory?
Financial Crisis 2007
Or The End of Economic Theory?
Economists cannot agree on :
what caused the crisis
What are the short, medium and long term effects
Who is to blame
How long it will last
Solutions
When the next crisis will happen
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

4. Possible causes Loose monetary policy – low interest rates
Financial deregulation
New, complex, innovative financial products
US housing boom, sub-prime mortgages
Globalisation and the new US-Asia economic model
Ratings Agencies
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

5. 1. Loose monetary policy and low interest rates
After ‘Dot-com bubble’ and 9/11, FED reduces interest rates from 6.5% in 2000 to 1% in 2003
Printed too many dollars – banks had too much cash
Foreigners increased holdings of US Treasury bonds, increasing liquidity. Proceeds mainly went into housing market.
FED increased interest rates to 6% in 2006, many householders not could not reimburse their mortgages
Alan Greenspan, Chairman,US Federal Reserve,
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

6. 2. Financial Deregulation
In 1999, President Clinton abolishes Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, separating commercial banking from investment banking
In 2004, Securities and Exchange Commission relaxes restrictions on amount of debt which investment banks are allowed to hold
US regulators allow major deposit banks to move assets and liabilities off their balance sheets into “structured investment vehicles”
Growth of ‘shadow banking system’ unchecked and unregulated. By end 2006, unregulated banks are bigger than traditional, regulated banks
In 1997 FED Chairman Greenspan blocks attempts to regulate “derivatives”
In 2000, President and Congress allow ‘credit default swaps’ to be self-regulated
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

7. 3. New Financial Products
Structured investment vehicle – accounting trick by banks to get around capital and risk requirements
Derivative – insurance policy guaranteeing future value of a commodity, equity or loan
Mortgage backed securities - bundle together disparate loans (such as sub prime mortgages, car loans), and/or risky investments, create packaged securities and sell off the shares
Credit default swaps – A contracts a risky loan with B then asks C for an insurance policy whereby if B cannot pay (defaults), C will pay A an amount. In return C charges a premium. In order to spread the risk, C bundles together all sorts of risks into derivatives which it sells to other institutional lenders. In 2007, CDS worldwide were worth US$ 58 trillion while world GDP was only US$ 54.3 trillion
“Financial weapons of mass destruction”
Warren Buffett
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

8. 4. US housing boom Average US Home prices Growth in subprime loans
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

9. US Housing Crash
Not enough mortgages to satisfy Wall Street’s demands for derivatives, so riskier loans, second mortgages to finance consumers
Interest rates increase suddenly from 1% to 6% so by August 2008, 15% of all mortgages had defaulted
Mortgages as % US GDP increased from 45% in 1990 to 73% in US private household debt represented 127% of personal disposable income by end By end 2008, US private debt equals 290% GDP
6 million Americans lost their homes
House prices fell by 30-40% in 2008, MBS and CDS shown to be worthless pieces of paper
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

10. 5.(a) Globalisation
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

11. 5(b) New US-Asia Economic Model
Stocks of US Treasury Bonds:
China $ 810 bn
Japan $1106 bn
US trade deficit (2008):
China $270 bn
Japan $70 bn
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

12. 6. Ratings agencies
Only 3 Ratings Agencies (Moody’s, Fitch, S&P) = world cartel
All the derivatives, CDS, MBS etc, plus all the investment banks (including Bear Stearns and Lehman) had been given AAA ratings as “safe investments”
Since 2000, ratings agencies paid by the companies they rated rather than by potential investors
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

13. EFFECTS
Unemployment reaches 10% in USA, 15% in UK, 21% in Spain, 30% Greece
Iceland collapses. Ireland collapses.
Greece, Portugal, Spain? Break-up of EURO?
Bank runs lead to US bailout costing over $ 2 trillion, UK bailout 2 trillion pounds (UK debt now equals 120% GDP)
World trade falls by 40% in 2008 – so far no real recovery
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

14. Solutions? Reduce interest to 0 Print money (extra $3trillion in US)
Increase budget deficit (record $ 15 trillion expected in US by 2015 = 100% GDP)
Stimulus package (infrastructure, health education programmes, US$ 1 trillion)
Re-regulate the financial services industry (Obama legislation, IMF proposed tax on financial services, SEC investigation into Goldman Sachs, G20 programme)
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

15. But haven’t these solutions been tried before?
Weimar Republic
Japan 1990 –
Zimbabwe
50 Million Mark note
Issued in 1924
Worth only US$1
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

16. How long will the Financial Crisis last?
“Technically, the recession is over but the economic recovery will appear very weak in 2010”, Bernanke, September 2009
Stock markets reach historic highs in April 2010
Domestic growth high in some Asian markets
Ben Bernanke
US Fed Chairman
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

17. BUT problems loom.....
US and EU consumers (70% of world economy), affected by unemployment and debt, reluctant to resume buying
Income tax will rise in US and EU to repay extravagant fiscal deficits, further depressing consumption
World trade will only recover slowly, especially if US imposes trade restrictions
Sovereign debt crisis will affect many other countries (and many states of the US)
New asset bubbles. Next Asian crisis? Bust in China? Default in Vietnam?
Longer term – inflation? Currency devaluations?
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010

18. Two views on financial institutions
Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve,
Sir Isaac Newton
Commenting on his personal financial loss during the South Seas Bubble, 1720
“Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. Such developments are representative of the market responses that have driven the financial services industry throughout the history of our country … With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. … Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending; indeed, today subprime mortgages account for roughly 10 percent of the number of all mortgages outstanding, up from just 1 or 2 percent in the early 1990s “ 2004.
“I can measure the movement
of the stars, but I cannot
measure the madness of men”
Dorian Ford Prince, May 2010