1. Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure
Manmohan Kapshe
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India
International Climate Change Conference, October 19, 2005 Johannesburg, South Africa

2. Presentation Sequence
Why Energy and Infrastructure?
Special Characteristics of Energy and Infrastructure
Methodology
Results
Major findings and conclusions
Recommendations and future work

3. Why Energy and Infrastructure?
Energy and Infrastructure are essential for economic development
These are man made long-life assets
investment is crucial to support a higher level of industrial growth
These systems are designed to tolerate a reasonable level of variability but climate change can affect both average conditions and the probability of extreme events
Damages occur primarily because of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity
Economic growth in India demands energy and development of its infrastructure
Huge investments are planned for these sectors

4. Special Characteristics of Energy and Infrastructure
Impact are more directly associated with climatic extremes rather than averages.
Possibility of abrupt climate changes not anticipated by normal response planning
Substantively different for relatively developed, industrialized regions vs. less developed regions.
Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of higher economic damages in developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed areas.
Economically significant. However, not generally considered to be heavily affected by climate change.
Sensitivity to climatic variability and change is relatively lower because of a high capacity to adapt in response to changes in climate.
Especially vulnerable are informal settlements within urban areas, which tend to be built on hazardous sites and to be susceptible to floods, landslides, and other climate-related disasters.
Coastal Settlements and industry show a higher vulnerability.

5. Conventional Impact Matrix
Civil Buildings
Bridges
Slope Cutting
Embankment
Tunnel
Forest Cover
Air Quality
Flora/
fauna
Land
erosion
Coast. Env.
Project Components
Environmental Effects
Effect of project on environment,
Short term impacts are prominent
Forcing Variables

6. Reverse Impact Matrix Dependent Variables Forcing Variables
Environmental Variables
Project Components
Projects Components 2 4 3 1

7. Konkan Railway
The 760 Km long Konkan Railway on the Western coastal ghats of India is an engineering marvel with 179 main and minor bridges, 92 tunnels (covering 12% of the total route) and over 1,000 cuttings (224 deeper than 12 meters). The longest tunnel is 6.5 Km long and the longest bridge is over 2 Km. The pillars of the tallest viaduct bridge are more than 64 meters high, taller than Qutab Minar.

8. Konkan Railway: Climate Change Impacts
Climatic Parameter
Impact Parameter
Intervening Parameter
Impact on KRC
Temperature Increase
High evaporation rate
Stability and Strength of the building materials
Buildings gets weakened More and frequent repair and maintenance
Surface and ground water loss
Crop productivity in the region may be affected
Agricultural fright traffic
Need for Air-conditioning
Passenger traffic may shift to Air conditioned class
Affects efficiency, carrying capacity and composition.
Rainfall Increase
Ground and surface water level change
Flooding and water logging, Erosion reduces quality of land cover
Buildings affected, structural damages may take place. Increased maintenance and other related costs
Improved water availability in the region
Agricultural production
Changes in agricultural freight traffic
Humidity increase
Uncomfortable climatic conditions, Vegetation growth along the track
Passenger traffic, affected, increased maintenance cost
Sea Level Change
Land erosion
Tracks tunnels and bridges may be affected
Increased maintenance,
Flooding
Land stability, and land slides
Damage to infrastructure,
Reconstruction and relocation
Water logging
Delays, risk increase
Extreme Events
Cyclone and high velocity winds and storms
Damage to buildings, communication lines etc
Disruption of services, repair and reconstruction costs
Cloud bursts
Land erosion, floods, and land slides
Extensive damage to infrastructure, High cost of repair and reconstruction

9. Konkan Railway: Impact Analysis
Environmental
Variables
Project
Components
Environmental Variables
Project Components

10. India: Observed and Simulated Rainfall
Precipitation scenario (2050s, CCSR/NIES model, Japan)
(mm/month)
Precipitation scenario (2100, HadCM model, IITM Pune, India)

11. Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation
Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons.
An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h.
Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity.
Identification of the vulnerable spots and installation of “Raksha Dhaga”.
Adaptation measures should also consider non technological measures

12. Climate Change Impact on Energy
Direct Impacts
Space cooling and heating in residential, commercial and industrial buildings
Air-conditioning in transport vehicles
Time of use and cooling load
Indirect Impacts
Increased water requirement for irrigation
Increased residential water requirement
Water availability
Supply Side Impacts
Hydroelectricity potential
Activities of petroleum companies

13. Scenario Drivers and Model Parameters (ANSWER-MARKAL)

14. Observed and Simulated Mean Annual Temp.
Temperature scenarios (2100, IITM Pune, India)

15. Climate Change Impact on Energy
Capacity for additional demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e. 1.5% of reference case
Electricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100
Energy and electricity demand rise from building, irrigation and transport
Energy mix is unaltered.

16. Climate Change Impact on Emissions
In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e. 1% rise over reference case
Emissions increase in power and transport sectors
Cumulative increase 710 MT

17. Probability and Variability
Increasing mean and variability of the number of days with heavy rainfall will adversely affect the infrastructure, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken.
With increase in the mean, the probability of receiving heavy and concentrated rainfall increases resulting in increased threat to infrastructure
Increase in variability may cause extremely high concentration of rainfall. It may also result in many new locations getting high rainfall, and many existing locations with heavy rainfall getting more frequent and severe rainfall.
Simultaneous increase in mean and variability will make the system highly vulnerable as this will result in high number of days with heavy rainfall, scattered in time and space.

18. Infrastructure Maintenance Costs
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Repair and Maintenance Costs
Cost Curve Under Climate Change
Conventional Bath-Tub Curve
Long-life assets commissioned now will have higher failure rates after a century when they become old. Climate change shall also exacerbate in later part of the 21st century. Therefore, impact probability and costs on the infrastructure would increase significantly in later years.

19. Findings and Conclusions
Long lived assets having low autonomous adaptive capacity will be vulnerable to long-term environmental changes in the later half of the century, depending on location.
Impact of environmental change becomes important only in long term. Therefore, it is most often ignored in short-term analysis. Long term projects should carry out this analysis.
Many studies for emission assessment but very few for Impacts
Non technological measures are also important for effective implementation
Environmental impact studies should include impact of long-term environment change on project parameters and resources planning (e.g. energy, water)
Macro-micro / Global-local linkage
E.g. Building code, Insurance
Integrated institutional design for policy formulation and implementation

20. Findings and Conclusions
Two important insights
need for awareness building among the concerned people
developing good quality databases
further studies are needed which would require
Preparation of a catalogue of historic extreme events, assessing the damages and providing the loss estimates
Detailed GIS covers with topographic, vegetation and geological details showing the major infrastructure systems and components
Sensitivity assessment of the infrastructure components with respect to various forcing climate parameters

21. Energy and Infrastructure: Adaptation Strategies
Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related events
Contingency planning and disaster preparedness
Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency
Relocation and industrial restructuring
Planning for likely increase in demands
Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning
Adaptation to be associated with marginal adjustments to changes in climatic parameters
Attention to the security of infrastructure
Risk financing and risk mitigation

22. Recommendations
Incorporation of future climate extremes in the project design parameters in the immediate-term
Improved operational and maintenance practices in the near-term
Improved climate predictions and creation of insurance markets in the long-term

23. Scope for Future Work
Establishing the parameters for the reverse link matrix and identification of the cost structure.
Estimating risks associated with Extreme events with the help of Sectoral case studies
Identification of forcing variables and values of thresholds
Linking of scenarios to critical parameters
Development of a model and GIS-based computer algorithm for climate change impact studies
Detailed regional climate variable projections
Adaptation issues of climate change impacts: technology, community response, innovations and insurance
Financing adaptation research and activities
Integrated impact assessment studies

24. Thank You.