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Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu

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Presentation on theme: "Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu"— Presentation transcript:

1 Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu

2 Small Islands and ORs Reduced size Limited natural resources Natural disasters Isolated Vulnerable and exposed economies High population density Vulnerable natural systems

3 Main climate change impacts - ORs and small islands Sea level rise Changes in wind and rain regimes Soil balance changes Changes of local wave and near shore sea conditions Coastal based socieconomical activities

4 Climate Change - main trends Increase of mean temperature Sea level rise Less precipitation More frequent extreme events

5 Special issues Development, sustainability and equity, Sea level rise Coastal changes Biological systems and biodiversity Water, agriculture and fisheries Human health, settlements, infrastructures and tourism

6 Development, sustainability and equity < 1% of GHG contribution Exposed and vulnerable economies Need of scale adaptation measures

7 Sea level rise 5mm/year in the next century Social and economical implications Adaptation within their natural and social boundaries...

8 Coastal zones Human contribution to coastal zone change In the next 50 to 100 years these changes will increase Need to assure resilience of coastal zones Higher social and economical costs of adaptation

9 Natural systems and biodiversity Natural systems are the basis of the economical stability of ORs 33% of the endemic species of the flora are insular endemisms 23% of the insular bird species are endangered Changes in the composition, structure and dynamics of natural systems

10 Water, agriculture & fisheriess Water availability and food production will always be critical factors in the ORs Most of water is from rain origin Loss of soil, erosion, saline intrusion, Changes in the abundance and distribution of fisheries

11 Human health, settlements, infrastructures and tourism Potential increase of biological induced and water related diseases More critical situations linked to extreme events Vulnerability of infrasctructures, including touristic and those located on risk zones,

12 Adequated and adapted management Information Monitoring Mitigation Adaptation

13 Scenarios & models


15 Precipitation - Madeira (2071-2100) Dry Winters & wet Summers Significant loss of precipitation Perda anual (in mm)

16 Temperature Madeira (2071-2100)

17 Sectoral Impact Assessment Water Forest Biodiversity Agriculture Tourism Human health Energy...

18 Potential Impacts on forest and agriculture Changes in the distribution zones - altitude; Higher forest fire risks; Changes on primary production.

19 Média 1970-2004 Funchal Impacts on Tourism Comfort Health risks Landscape Natural disaters

20 Levels of air polution Contamination vectors Transmission dinamics Regional Climatic changes Extreme events Temperature Precipitation Potential effects on human health Death/diseases due to temperature & climatic extreme events (floods/dry/rain) air polution related effects Diseases promoted by water and food Diseases transmited by bilogical vectors Human Health

21 The near future Climate change is a fact It is prioritary to monitor the trends Mitigation and adaptation measures Participation Is this possibe to deal with climate change challenges on a ORs scale?

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