1. What's up with the vocational education?
Dissecting the education-job mismatch in school to work transitions in Croatia
Evidence based policy making for employment generation and skills provision
New Skills for New Jobs in the Western Balkans?
Teo Matković, University of Zagreb

2. Education-occupation mismatch?
Mismatch between educational system and "labour market needs".
One way of understanding it: a "mechanical" issue of supply and demand?
Assumption:
non-problematic link Education --> Occupation
But:
Weak demand for some occupations or "overproduction" of some cadres leading to problems with employability
Flipside: Weak supply of profiles in demand is hurting the economy.
If this holds true:
Adjustment of entry quotas would solve skill mismatch and reduce unemployment

3. Strategy: to establish
What is the sectoral structure of labour market entrants?
What is the structure of occupational destinations for vocational education graduates?
Is it due to mismatch of aggregated supply and demand?
What about the employability? Does job acquisition dynamics vary across fields of education?
Is there a noted structural trend of change in employability for ? What had the crisis brought us?
Digresion 1: Things in the context: Differences between fields vs. differences between levels of education
Digression 2: Evidence on facilitating employability through training ALMPs

4. Observing the post-educationoutcomes: Analytical approach and sources
A: Population:
all persons
who completed
vocational education
in the period
B: Entered higher education
Number continuing education
Destinations: type and field of higher education
C: Registered with PES
Dynamics: employed within 6/12/36 months
Destinations: occupation (ISCO) of first job
Education database
(E-matica) – aggreg.
CBS education
statistics
PES database
Reliable knowledge on current (and past) outcomes among people leaving education
– as a base for policy development and (one of key inputs) for future planning.

5. The data used here
A product of IPA project "Strengthening of the institutional framework for development of VET occupational standards, qualifications and curricula" (Jačanje institucionalnog okvira za razvoj strukovnih standarda zanimanja, kvalifikacija i kurikuluma)
Entire population of new registrants
Detailed field of education, date of job aquisition, administrative ISCO and ISIC codes of the job.
Focus on secondary educated recent school leavers with no substantive previous experience (age <21).
Bias: only those who reported to PES (67% for vocational graduates over entire time span – much higher as reccesion struck)

6. On outcomes presented here
Horizontal mismatch
Education-occupation mismatch: have graduates ended in the occupations they were trained for
Job analysis approach (taking intended match of education and occupation at a face value) - expert estimate of sectoral council experts.
Relaxed criterion applied – if any occupation deemed suitable for broad educational sector is reached by a graduate from any course within the eductional sector, the outcome is considered a match (e.g. if a trained cook gets a waiter job) – likely underestimating incidence of mismatches
Job acquisition dynamics
Ability to find (any) job within 6/12/36 months
Ought to be lower among the graduates from "sufficitary" education programmes where demand for associated occupations is weaker.

7. Structure of vocational education origins (1)
Share of registrants with sectoral education
(A)
Agriculture and food processing
6,3
Forestry and carpentry
1,8
Textile and leather
2,7
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
16,3
Electrotechnics and IT
12,7
Construction and geodesy
3,9
Economics, trade and business administration
19,9
Tourism and hospitality
11,9
Transport and logistics
Health
7,0
Personal and other services
8,6

8. ...and occupational destinations (for same pop.) (2)
Share of registrants with sectoral education
(A)
Found first job in sectoral occupation
(B)
Agriculture and food processing
6,3
4,7
Forestry and carpentry
1,8
4,2
Textile and leather
2,7
3,0
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
16,3
9,7
Electrotechnics and IT
12,7
5,0
Construction and geodesy
3,9
6,6
Economics, trade and business administration
19,9
23,0
Tourism and hospitality
11,9
20,4
Transport and logistics
6,5
Health
7,0
Personal and other services
8,6
9,5

9. ...compositional mismatch for youth? (3)
Share of registrants with sectoral education
(A)
Found first job in sectoral occupation
(B)
Registrants from sectoral education vs. jobs found in sectoral occupation
(C=A/B)
Agriculture and food processing
6,3
4,7
136%
Forestry and carpentry
1,8
4,2
44%
Textile and leather
2,7
3,0
91%
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
16,3
9,7
167%
Electrotechnics and IT
12,7
5,0
253%
Construction and geodesy
3,9
6,6
59%
Economics, trade and business administration
19,9
23,0
86%
Tourism and hospitality
11,9
20,4
58%
Transport and logistics
6,5
97%
Health
7,0
108%
Personal and other services
8,6
9,5

10. How often sectoral occupations get filled from "appropriate" education
Share of registrants with sectoral education
(A)
Found first job in sectoral occupation
(B)
Registrants from sectoral education vs. jobs found in sectoral occupation
(C=A/B)
Jobs in sectoral occupations filled by registrants with sectoral education
Agriculture and food processing
6,3
4,7
136%
37,0%
Forestry and carpentry
1,8
4,2
44%
25,0%
Textile and leather
2,7
3,0
91%
33,4%
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
16,3
9,7
167%
74,4%
Electrotechnics and IT
12,7
5,0
253%
78,3%
Construction and geodesy
3,9
6,6
59%
29,1%
Economics, trade and business administration
19,9
23,0
86%
50,5%
Tourism and hospitality
11,9
20,4
58%
45,1%
Transport and logistics
6,5
97%
28,9%
Health
7,0
108%
96,9%
Personal and other services
8,6
9,5
40,7%

11. Found a job within 12 months
Differences in general employability? (graduates from short vocational courses)
Number of registrants
( )
Found a job within 12 months
Occupation not matching sectoral profile
Tourism and hospitality
6466
56%
27%
Construction and geodesy
1446
55%
53%
Forestry and wood processing
1109
54%
43%
Engineering, shipbuilding, metallurgy
8912
52%
57%
Electrotechnics and IT
3934
51%
68%
Economics, trade and business administration
5479
41%
Transport and logistics
1453
50%
Agriculture and food processing
1941
49%
63%
Personal and other services
4906
Textile and leather
1246
65%
Total – short vocational programmes
(3 yr, mostly apprenticeship-based)
37345

12. Crisis and employability by sector of vocational secondary education: not much of a difference

13. Differences within educational sectors
Differences within educational sectors? Dynamics of job acquisition: The most populous vocational programmes in electrotechnics

14. In-detail: Occupation of the first job found: electro-technician

15. What about level of education?

16. Possibility of a quick-fix: efficiency of training ALMPs estimation via matching technique (Matković et. al, 2011)
Sudionici mjera iz evidentirani kao nezaposleni u 10. mj. 2011:
Financiranje obrazovanja 44%
Kod njima sličnih nesudionika %(ns)
But slight (2-6%) positive effect for younger unemployed, persons without upper secondary education and returnees from inactivity
...just like in the West, might help some (at considerable price), but not a magic wand.

17. Findings: wrapping up (1)
Many horizontal mismatches, lasting ones
Wasted (personal and public) investment?
Some sectors in "short supply" (wood, tourism, construction)
Majority of graduates find jobs in apropriate occupations, often slightly faster than others (but: health)
In some sectors occupational demand exceeds supply (engineering, electrotechnics)
But recruitment to sectoral occupations mostly happens from sectoral education
Maintaining the capacity or reducing educational sectors?
Good signal? Average or above-average employability
Some educational sectors seldom leads to sectoral occupation although there is no lack of demand for sectoral occupations
Content of education not recognized as relevant with employers?
As well, slightly lower employability.

18. Findings: wrapping up (2)
Employability variation between and within education sectors rather modest
Vocational education composition unlikely to be a key for understanding persistenly slow labour market integration of youth
Level of education as key determinant of LM outcomes
Tradeoff at the personal level: educational trajectory choice (few viable "bridging" options between tracks)
Limited remedial capability of active labour market policies

19. An issue of credibility and quality of education, not quantity Development of ocupational and qualification standards
Source: Balković et. al, 2011

20. (All resources and products available from ASOO webpages) : http://www

21. Further strivings/extension: Human potential register
Source: Crnković-Pozaić, 2012

22. Observing the outcomes: Analytical approach and sources
A: Population:
all persons
who completed
vocational education
in the period
B: Entered higher education
Number continuing education
Destinations: type and field of higher education
C: Registered with PES
Dynamics: employed within 6/12/36 months
Destinations: occupation (ISCO) of first job
Education database
(E-matica) – aggreg.
CBS education
statistics
PES database
Directly linkable:
Individual level data
(anonymized)
More precise:
State matriculation
(Državna matura)
+ISVU databases
Complete coverage:
Pension insurance
Base (HZMO)

23. Some leads... Limited function of vocational quota allotment
Having in mind not only credentials, but credible vocational competences – transparency of competences
Growing body of evidence on employer skill needs (but how will they be provided/implemented?)
Employee perspective? (skills survey)
Necessary involvement and coordination with employers: building functional linkages – with respect to training and content, leading to credible outcomes
Tradeoff: vocational skills and workplace training (facilitating insertion) vs. general competences (key for tertiary education and lifelong learning)