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Jeffrey Sachs Director, UN Millennium Project
The End of Poverty Jeffrey Sachs Director, UN Millennium Project
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Portrait of 4 Countries Malawi Bangladesh India China Malawi
The perfect storm Bangladesh On the ladder of improvement India Center of an export services revolution China The rise of affluence Malawi
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Malawi A perfect storm Villages devastated by AIDS
Only children and grandmothers left Poor soils, poor yields No one to work the fields Little food to eat Malaria, but no medicines No nearby clinics In cities, are clinics No AIDS medicine Patients come to die. $1 a day could save them Grandmother with 15 orphaned children
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Bangladesh On the ladder to development
Per capita income doubled since independence (1971) Infant mortality 1/3 Sweat shops in Dhaka Women walk 2 hours to work First step out of extreme poverty Microcredit more available Health care more available And birth control Women now more empowered Want education Want fewer children Rice milling
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India Center of an Export Services Revolution
Several steps up the ladder of development Information Technology companies College grads earn $ /month Service U.S. companies Buy U.S. computers Northern India still largely rural and poor IT workers in Bangalore, India
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China The rise of affluence
Beijing: one of the world’s economic capitals. Average Annual income > $4,000 per capita Urban professionals Affluence, travel, trendy Foreign investment And technology Competitive enterprises Exported $400 billion in 2004 Beijing
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Ascending the ladder of economic development
Rural Population Malawi: 84% Bangladesh 76% India 72% China 61% USA 20% Employment in Services Malawi 25% USA 75% Rural India
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Ascending the ladder of economic development
5 billion people are on the ladder of economic progress Poor, low, middle, & high income Rising incomes, education, sanitation, health, possessions 1 billion people are not on the ladder of economic progress Extreme poor Unable to escape from extreme material deprivation Trapped by disease, physical isolation, climate stress, environmental degradation, extreme poverty Mexico: on the ladder
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Our generation’s challenge
The end of poverty Help the poorest escape extreme poverty To get a foothold on the ladder of development Ensure that the moderately poor have a chance to climb the ladder Give development assistance Eliminate trade barriers World Bank water project, S. Africa
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Effect of the Industrial Revolution
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Effect of Industrialization
Urbanization Due to improved agriculture Food prices fall Employment in cities Social Mobility Hierarchies unravel Market based economy Gender roles change Employment rather than child-rearing for women Division of Labor Specialization increases Efficiency goes up Urban worker, Brazil
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How does prosperity spread?
Transmission of technologies Science-based methods to organize production Historical examples: Steam engine Factory machinery Railroads Global steamers Suez, Panama canals Electrification Internal Combustion engine Nitrogen-based fertilizer
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Why some countries fail to thrive
Poverty trap Poor rural villages lack Trucks Paved roads Power generators Irrigation channels Human capital is low Hunger Disease Illiteracy Natural capital is depleted Trees cut down Soil exhausted Need more capital, but unable to save for future Rural village, Sierra Leone
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Why some countries fail to thrive
Physical geography Landlocked high mountains No coast, navigable rivers, or harbors Ex: Bolivia, Ethiopia, Tibet Arid Tropical diseases Malaria Problems can be overcome But it costs more Sahara desert
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Why Some countries fail to thrive
Fiscal Trap Government cannot pay for infrastructure Population poor taxation not feasible Government corrupt, or incapacitated cannot collect tax Debt load too high Revenue goes to interest Debt cancellation may be only solution
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Why Some countries fail to thrive
Governance Failures Governments should: Promote infrastructure Create an environment conducive to investment Crime free Bribery free Protect property Defend borders Poor governance results in State Failure War, revolution, anarchy Economic failure Singapore
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Why Some countries fail to thrive
Cultural Barriers Religions that block the role of women Deny economic or political rights Deny education Result: Undermines half the population’s contribution to development Slows demographic transition Blocking religious or ethnic minorities Prevented from jobs, schooling Extreme: ethnic cleansing
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Why some countries fail to thrive
Geopolitics Trade barriers erected by foreign countries Impede economic development May target a despicable regime Often ends up impoverishing population Without toppling the regime North Korea South Korea
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Why some countries fail to thrive
Lack of innovation Small market for new inventions No profits = no inventions Endogenous growth cycle: Big markets encourage invention Inventions promote big markets Low income countries: 37% population 11% GDP 1% patents Need foreign investment to bring technology Key to East Asian economies Sweat shops are first step Starts at port cities Sweat Shop in Dhaka, Bangladesh
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Why some countries fail to thrive
The demographic trap High fertility rates in the poorest countries Poor families choosing to have many children Disastrous Cannot invest in each child High fertility next generation Demographic transition can occur fast Ex. Iran 1980 fertility = 6.7 2000 fertility = 2.6 Education for girls is key Iran
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Five Development Interventions
Home > FAQ > Natural Resources > Food > Annual Fertilizer Use Per Hectare of Cropland > maps > Map of Fertilizer User Per Hectare of Cropland By Country - Africa Overpopulation.Com Five Development Interventions 1. Boost Agriculture Fertilizers Cover crops Irrigation Improved seeds Storage facilities Kg fertilizer/Ha of cropland 119 to 4,800 63 to 118 26 to 62 5.00 to 25 0 to 4.99
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Five Development Interventions
2. Improve basic health Village clinics: One doctor for 5,000 Free anti-malarial bed nets Effective medicines Malaria Aids Birth attendants Reproductive health services Sierra Leone Hospital
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Five Development Interventions
3. Invest in Education Meals for all children at primary school Improve quality of education Improve attendance Vocational training Modern farming Computers Electrical wiring Diesel mechanics Carpentry Adult Education Hygiene, HIV/AIDS School meal, Ghana
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Five Development Interventions
4. Power, Transport and Communications Electricity in villages Lights, computers, pumps, refrigeration, food processing Trucks, roads Bring fertilizers, fuels Transport harvest to market Transport people to hospital Mobile phone Connect with outside world Kenya village
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Five Development Interventions
5. Safe drinking water and sanitation Health benefits Save hours of toil for women and children Carrying water, Zimbabwe
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Five Development Interventions
Total cost to village: $70 per person/year Benefits Double or triple food yields Reduction of chronic hunger Improved school attendance Reduction of water-borne disease Rise in cash incomes Sales of grain and cash crops Food processing, carpentry, small manufacturing, horticulture, aquaculture, animal husbandry Reduction in AIDS deaths Bumper crops, Malawi
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The giving gap The U.S. is far behind Usual excuses Bush (2004)
on its pledge of 0.7% GNP Usual excuses Corruption and misrule Thus money down the drain Bush (2004) “…the greatest power on the face of the earth, we have an obligation to help the spread of freedom. We have an obligation to feed the hungry.” U.S. aid to sub-Saharan Africa: $3 per African (2002) 6 cents per African received after expenses and emergency aid
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