1. Welcome to the IPCC

2. Outline What is the IPCC? About the SREX About the AR5
Purpose
Organization
About the SREX
About the AR5
Key aspects of the IPCC’s work
Significance of the SREX and linkages with the AR5 and broader global environmental change research initiatives

3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Formed by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization to conduct assessments of the state of knowledge of climate change, the vulnerabilities to and consequences of any changes, and the options to avoid, prepare for, and respond to changes
All governments that signed either the UNEP or WMO convention are members of the IPCC

5. Co-Chairs WGI: WGII: WGIII: Thomas Stocker (University of Bern)
Dahe Qin (China Meteorological Administration)
WGII:
Vicente Barros (CIMA-FCEN)
Christopher Field (Carnegie Institution)
WGIII:
Ottmar Edenhofer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Ramon Pichs Madruga (CIEM)
Youba Sokona (Sahara and Sahel Observatory)

6. Technical Support Units
WGI: Pauline Midgley, Ph.D.
Gian-Kasper Plattner, Deputy Head - Science
Simon Allen, Project Scientist
Melinda Tignor, Deputy Head - Administration
WGII: Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
Dave Dokken, Director of Operations
Michael Mastrandrea, Scientist
Rob Genova, IT Specialist
Sandy MacCracken, Administrative Assistant

7. Role of Governments
Governments request the scientific community to conduct comprehensive assessments
Governments elect a Bureau to ensure assessments are conducted following the IPCC Rules and Procedures
Proposed outlines are discussed and approved line-by-line by the governments in a Plenary
Bureau approves the chapter author teams
Based on scientific expertise, geography, & gender

8. Role of Governments (cont’d)
Governments participate in the review process and in the IPCC Plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work program are taken and reports are accepted, adopted, and approved
Summary for Policymakers approved line-by-line by the governments in a final Plenary

9. Review: multiple levels
Zero-order draft: internal review (consistency, coverage)
First-order draft: formal external peer review (including issues of interpretation, missed literature & presentation)
Second-order draft: combined external expert and government review
Author teams need to provide written response to review comments
Review editor(s) (like the editors of a journal) oversee the review process
In the AR4 for WG 2, there were over 40,000 comments from 1181 Expert Reviewers, from 92 countries and 41 Governments

11. Assessment consisting of 9 chapters Technical Summary
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
Assessment consisting of 9 chapters
Technical Summary
Summary for Policy Makers (SPM)
Line of sight required from SPM to assessment

12. SREX 1 = New dimensions in disaster risk 2 = Determinants of risk
3 = Changes in climate extremes
4 = Observed and projected impacts of changes in climate extremes
5 = Managing risks at the local level 6 = Managing risks at the national level 7 = Managing risks at the international level 8 = Sustainable future 9 = Case studies

13. Provisional Schedule 29 January 2010 3 February - 5 March 2010
0-order drafts due to TSUs
3 February - 5 March 2010
Informal Peer Review
11 March 2010
Collated comments to chapters
22-25 March 2010
2nd Lead Authors Meeting – Hanoi, Vietnam
 9 July 2010
1st-order drafts due to TSUs

14. 26 July - 20 September 2010 29 September 2010 25-28 October 2010
SREX Expert Review 
29 September 2010
Collated Expert Review comments to chapters
25-28 October 2010
3rd Lead Authors Meeting – Geneva
3 January 2011
2nd-order drafts due to TSUs
12 January - 9 March 2011
SREX Government/Expert Review 
18 March 2011
Collated Government/Expert Review comments to chapters

15. 11-14 April 2011 15 June 2011 24 August 2011 2 September 2011
4th Lead Authors Meeting – Location TBD
15 June 2011
Final drafts due to TSUs
24 August 2011
SREX Final Government Distribution
2 September 2011
Collated SPM comments from Governments
23-24 September 2011
SREX Pre-Plenary CLA Meeting
26-30 September 2011
Joint WG1/WG2 Session to approve SREX SPM and accept underlying document

16. Outline for the Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report

17. Major themes Building from the structure of the AR4
Better integration of climate science with climate impacts
Broader range of assessed impacts
Climate change in the context of other stresses
Better treatment of extremes and disasters
Framing to support good decisions, including information on risk
Expanded treatment of adaptation
Better integration of adaptation, mitigation, and development
More comprehensive treatment of regional aspects of climate change

18. Major Sections or “Superchapters”
Part A: GLOBAL & SECTORAL ASPECTS
Context for the AR5
Natural and managed resources and systems, and their uses
Human settlements, industry, and infrastructure
Human health, well-being, and security
Adaptation
Multi-sector impacts, risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities
Part B: REGIONAL ASPECTS
With WG1 and WG3 input and collaboration

19. PART A: GLOBAL & SECTORAL ASPECTS
Context for the AR5 1 Point of departure 2 Foundations for decisionmaking Natural and Managed Resources and Systems, and Their Uses 3 Freshwater resources 4 Terrestrial and inland water systems 5 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 6 Ocean systems 7 Food production systems and food security Human Settlements, Industry, and Infrastructure 8 Urban Areas 9 Rural Areas 10 Key economic sectors and services
Human Health, Well-Being, and Security
11 Human health
12 Human security
13 Livelihoods and poverty
Adaptation
14 Adaptation needs and options
15 Adaptation planning and implementation
16 Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits
17 Economics of adaptation
Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities
18 Detection and attribution of observed impacts
19 Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities
20 Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development

20. Part B: REGIONAL ASPECTS with WG1 and WG3 input and collaboration
Regional Context
Introduction
Information on observed climate changes and relevant non-climate factors
Regional projections: added value and limitations
Similarities and pertinent differences in systems across regions
Cross-regional hotspots
Regional Chapters
Africa
Europe
Asia
Australasia
North America
Central and South America
Polar Regions
Small Islands
Open Oceans

21. [Context] = common topics addressed in each sectoral and regional chapter
Observed impacts, with detection and attribution
Projected integrated climate change impacts, with regional variation by scenario and time slice
Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks
Vulnerability to key drivers (including extremes)
Economic, social, and environmental context for uncertain futures under alternative development pathways
Multiple interacting stresses
Uncertainty
Valuation of impacts and adaptation
Key vulnerabilities
Adaptation and managing risks
Adaptation needs and gaps (based on assessed impacts and vulnerabilities)
Practical experiences of adaptation, including lessons learned
Observed and expected barriers to adaptation
Observed and expected limits to adaptation
Facilitating adaptation and avoiding maladaptation
Planned and autonomous adaptation
Potential and residual impacts
Thresholds and irreversible changes
Case studies
Research and data gaps

22. The IPCC Does not conduct research or monitor trends
Does conduct comprehensive assessments
Does provide statements that are policy-relevant and policy-neutral
Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and comprehensive assessment
Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports

23. Dealing with uncertainty: Confidence and Likelihood
Likelihood is a statement about the uncertainty in the occurrence of specific outcomes, based on expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence
Confidence is a statement about the correctness of underlying data, models or analyses, based on expert judgment

24. Likelihood is the Assessed Probability of Occurrence of an Outcome
Virtually certain >99%
Extremely likely >95%
Very likely >90%
Likely >66%
More likely than not > 50%
About as likely as not 33% to 66%
Unlikely <33%
Very unlikely <10%
Extremely unlikely <5%
Exceptionally unlikely <1%

25. Confidence is the Assessed Chance of a Finding Being Correct
Very high confidence at least 9 out of 10
High confidence about 8 out of 10
Medium confidence about 5 out of 10
Low confidence about 2 out of 10
Very low confidence less than 1 out of 10

26. Example of usage
Emerging evidence of climate change effects on human health shows that climate change has:
altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors (medium confidence);
altered the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species (high confidence);
heatwave-related deaths (medium confidence)
Projected trends in climate-change-related exposures of importance to human health will:
increase malnutrition and consequent disorders, including those relating to child growth and development (high confidence); ……

27. Using non-published / non-peer reviewed material (aka grey literature)
Particularly as we move towards practice and implementation, diversity of sources of information is increasing
Authors need to critically assess sources for quality and validity
Non-peer-reviewed sources will be listed in the reference sections of IPCC Reports. These will be integrated with references for the peer-reviewed sources. These will be integrated with references to the peer reviewed sources stating how the material can be accessed, but will be followed by a statement that they are not published
Copy of source together with relevant meta-data to be sent to the WG bureau
Specific responsibilities for Bureau, Secretariat

28. Why is the srex so important?

29. Putting adaptation into practice: Integration or mainstreaming: where and how?
Resource management: water, forestry
Adaptation
Development activities: infrastructure, public services
Disaster management: climate-related hazards

30. Climate change poses a challenge in each of these contexts for integration
Disaster management often focuses on relief
In terms of long-term adaptive capacity, what is more important – reducing the immediate impact (relief) vs. restoring the flow of economic goods and services (recovery)?
Development planning authority is usually local
Can we get mal-adaptation, because the climate signal is at a spatial and temporal scale which is not perceived?
Can operational management accommodate long-term changes in climate baseline?
How useful is the 30-year climate “normal”?
Are we able to recognize and assess multiple stresses and path dependence?

32. The importance of (local) strategies and actions
In practice, this is where the different communities (across science & across practice) come together
In order to manage risk, need to understand how agents and stakeholders perceive, evaluate and respond to risk
Response to chronic vs. acute hazard
This process happens at different scales:
Spatial: local – regional – national – international
Institutional: individual – family – community – regions
Temporal: relief – recovery – resilience
Unfortunately, much of our research effort is at specific scales, and findings are often not generalizable and hard to translate across scale
The perception – evaluation – response process is fairly critical as are the cross-scale interactions in this process.