1. Energy for Transportation and Developments in Plug-in Vehicles
Guenter Conzelmann
Center for Energy, Environmental, and Economic Systems Analysis
Decision and Information Sciences Division (DIS)
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne, IL 60439

2. Why Electric Transportation?
The nation has an oil problem
U.S. is refining more oil than it has, and consumes even more
The current high oil prices reflect the increasing global demand for a limited energy resource: China is number 2 in oil use and India is 6th…and growing
Oil is predominately a transportation energy problem, with economic, environmental, and geopolitical concerns for the nation
Oil is an energy security issue
Reliance on domestic oil is not sustainable, we cannot drill our way out of the problem
Even optimistic projections leave us heavily dependent on foreign oil

3. Electric Vehicles: Are they Real?
Source: EPRI, 2009)

4. Electric Vehicles are Part of the Government-Industry Partnership Advanced Propulsion Portfolio Vision
Portfolio approach as there is no clear winner
Likely, the U.S. solution with include a mix of technologies with multiple fuel sources (electricity, biofuels, alternative fuels, etc.)

5. Existing Battery Technologies do not yet Approach the Energy and Power in an Internal Combustion (IC) Engine
R&D on New Technologies is still needed

6. HEV, PHEV, E-REV, BEV, AEV, CS, CD, V2G, etc
HEV, PHEV, E-REV, BEV, AEV, CS, CD, V2G, etc.: Might as well Talk to my Dog???

7. The Main Concepts in Simple Terms
HEV: Hybrid electric vehicle (Ford Escape, Toyota Prius)
Small battery, gets recharged from regenerative breaking; very limited all-electric range
No plug
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Larger battery; gets charged by plugging I
Different drivetrain configurations
Series: ICE turns generator which charges battery which runs electric motor (Chevy Volt)
Parallel: ICE and electric motor both run the car simultaneously (Honda Insight)
Mix
E-REV: Extended Range Electric Vehicle
A PHEV with a bigger battery for driving ranges of miles using only the battery (all-electric driving); after which the gas engine starts
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicles
Pure electric vehicles; only has an electric drivetrain
When your out of battery, you are out of battery

8. Basic Concept of a Plug-in Electric Vehicle
10 kWh JCS
Li-ion battery

9. Different Ways of Controlling/Operating PHEVs Engines/Batteries
Blended Modes (conventional engine cycles on/off fairly frequently)
All-Electric Modes (conventional engine stays off for an extended period of time until the battery charge reaches a certain level; then starts up)
SOC: State of Charge (Battery)

10. There Will be a Substantial Cost Premium to Early Adopters; Estimates of Premium Vary Noticeably

11. Estimated Paybacks Can be Very Long; But the More you Drive (and the Higher the Price of Gasoline), the Better it is
Source: Sharer and Rousseau, 2009, ANL

12. Increases in Powertrain Cost are Not the Only Cost Increases that Consumers May Need to Pay
Chargers and cord and connector between vehicle and plus
Charging Circuit Upgrades or Installation
If you want faster charging, you will need an upgrade
Level 1: Your standard circuit (110V, 20Amps, 1.1 KW)
Level 2: Upgraded circuit (220V, 15 Amps, 3.3 kW) 12

13. Examples for In-Home Charging and Public Charge Stations
Source: Coulomb Technologies, 2010 13

14. How do We Use Vehicles?
PHEVs with an all-electric-range (AER) of 20 Miles could cover about 40% of daily Vehicles-Miles-Traveled (VMT) on electricity
PHEVs with a 30-Mile AER could cover about 55% of Daily VMTs

15. How do We Use Vehicles? (2)
Weekday Last Vehicle Trip Ending Time Shows a Sharp Peak At 5-6 PM, Totaling 15% of Vehicles
The chart shows national data. Similar patterns can be observed for different regions in the country. 15 15
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16. How do We Use Vehicles? (3)
Some variation; the hottest months have the smallest peak hour share
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Oct-Dec
July-Sep 16
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17. Worst Case: Charging Starts when People Arrive at their Homes; Will Show Grid Impacts17 17

18. A Smart Vehicle-Grid Interface Configuration (Smart Grid, Smart Vehicle) will Reduce (Avoid?) System Impacts
V2G

19. Utilities see PHEV Smart-Charging as Critical for Success
Impact of PEVs on the 2020 Summer Load of Southern California Electric Power Grid
Peak power will increase substantially without management
Optimal management requires smart grids and smart vehicles
Local circuits (blocks and neighborhoods) must be protected from overload
Transformers need cooling periods at night
Lifetime may be reduced
Consumer education and pricing policy will be key enablers
Source: SCE, 2009

20. Best Case: Smart-Charging Delays Start of Battery Charging, and Perfectly Fills the Load Night-time Valley 20 20

21. V2G: Vehicles could be an Active Component of the Future Grid
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) is a PHEV equipped with a communications interface
Control signals are sent from the grid operator to manage the flow of energy between the vehicle and the grid
Changing charging rate; reversing the flow of energy to feed back to the grid depending on a variety of factors including current grid load, current amount of renewable generation, state of charge of the vehicle, and real-time energy pricing
Direct load control (similar to AC programs)
With true bi-directional flow capability, vehicles could provide ancillary grid services
Frequency control, regulation and spinning reserves
Help penetration of intermittent renewable energy generation resources (solar and wind)
Another option is Vehicle-to-House (V2H)
Plug-in vehicles treated as power generation resource along with solar or wind power, and controlled directly by an energy management system which controls the energy load at the home or business
Some issues
Automakers want dumb charging (KISS), utilities want smart charging
Distribution system not built for bi-directional flows; will need infrastructure investments
Communication infrastructure would have to be developed
Effect of increased grid-controlled cycling on battery life time

22. Argonne is Analyzing Grid Integration Issues of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
New analysis initiated for DOE
Total of 4 case studies at different levels of detail
Western Interconnect, Illinois, New York ISO, New England ISO
Involves projecting PHEV penetration, electricity demand, charging scenarios, grid and infrastructure impacts, electricity prices, and emissions
Western Interconnect
Model Representation 22

23. Summary of Recent Studies on Impacts of PHEVs on Power Systems
Study
Where?
When?
How Much PHEVs?
Hadley, 2008 (ORNL):
Estimates marginal generation needed in individual regions. Estimates GHGs and criteria pollutants.
Thirteen 2007 NERC Regions
a) after 5 PM
b) after 10 PM
25% on-road LDV share in 2030
Lemoine, 2008 (UC Berkeley):
Estimates CAISO (CA) capability to meet PHEV electric demand.
California
a) evening (1 charge/day)
b) morning and evening (2 charges/day)
Several penetration scenarios from 20% of annual new vehicle sales to 100% by PHEVs
Miller, 2007 (Atomic Energy of Canada Limited): Aggregate analysis of new nuclear electricity supply required.
Ontario
Off-peak charging of PHEVs, balance of plant output replacing current coal.
One third of LDV energy demand is from electricity
EPRI & NRDC, 2007:
Examines GHG impacts of PHEVs under three alternative futures: low, medium, and high carbon intensity
Thirteen 2007 NERC regions
Charging distributed throughout the day, but mainly off-peak
3 scenarios: 20%, 62%, and 80% share of new LDV sales by PHEVs in 2050
Kintner-Meyer, 2007 (PNNL)
12 modified NERC Regions
Valley filling of daily electric load curve
Estimates total available energy to charge PHEVs 23 23 23

24. The Starting Point is to Estimate the Future PHEV Market using Market Simulation Tools

25. Estimates of Number of PHEVs on the Road in 2020 by Region
About 10% of Cars and SUVs In 2020 are assumed to be PHEVs
Breakdown into AER 10, 20, 30, and 40 using average typical travel pattern (NHTS)
PHEV10 – 39%; PHEV20 – 29%; PHEV30 – 19%; PHEV %
Useable battery energy = 60% of rated energy
Further broken down into Chicago and Rest 25 25

26. PHEV Load Profiles for Different Charging Behavior

27. Load/Grid Impacts Vary due to Different Vehicle Adoption Rates and Different Urban/Rural Driving Patterns
Different impacts 27

28. New Capacity Requirements in 2020 due to PHEV Loads28

29. WECC Results: Additional Generation from Gas and Coal

30. IL Results: Baseline Generation Mix in April and July

31. PHEV Impact on Hourly Loads, Scenario A, Week 32 (July)

32. PHEV Impact on Hourly Loads, Scenario A, Week 14 (April)

33. PHEV Impact on Annual Load Duration Curve, Scenario A

34. PHEV-Induced Change in Generation Mix in April: Substantially More Coal, a Little More Gas

35. PHEV-Induced Change in Generation Mix in July: Less Additional Coal, More Gas

36. Simulated Prices for Chicago Area – Week 32 (July): Different Price Impacts under Different Scenarios

37. Location is Important – Simulated Prices in July (Week 32)
Chicago Area
Mid-Illinois

38. Summary of Petroleum Energy and GHG Effects of All Evaluated Options: Unconstrained Charging Scenario
color/pattern of marker = fuel/vehicle type
shape of marker = electricity generation mix
size of marker = AER rating
[VMTCD/VMTtotal]PHEV10 = 19%
[VMTCD/VMTtotal]PHEV40 = 51% H2
Petroleum fuels
E85
EV, US Ave mix
EV, NE Ave mix
EV, CA Ave mix 38

39. Summary
PHEVs can play a substantial role in reducing our petroleum consumption
GHG emission reductions related to PHEV depend heavily on the energy/power mix, the vehicle configuration, and the choice of technology
Smart-infrastructure is critical to manage the additional load on the grid
PHEVs/EVs may facilitate the use of large penetration of variable, renewable resources
Keep it simple for the consumer
Chevy Volt Phone App 39