1. Electricity Load Profiles and Load Management
Guenter Conzelmann
Center for Energy, Environmental, and Economic Systems Analysis
Decision and Information Sciences Division (DIS)
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne, IL 60439

2. Electricity Demand/Load Analysis is part of a Multi-Step Long-term Energy Planning Process
Economic
Analysis
Energy
Demand
Analysis
Supply
Demand
Balance
Impacts
Analysis
Review
Evaluate
Energy
Resource
Evaluation
Energy
Technology
Definition
ITERATION 34

3. Macro-Economic Information Energy Demand
The Analysis Typically Starts with Developing Macroeconomic Projections and Translating them into Projections of Future Demand/Load
Macro-Economic Information
Time-series extrapolation
Input/output model
Econometric model
Other models
Energy Demand
Final Energy (simple)
Useful Energy (advanced)
Besides overall macroeconomics, drivers include sectoral shifts, absolute and relative price trends, technology/efficiency trends, behavior, etc.

4. In Addition to Total Annual Demand, it is Important to Look at the Patterns/Profile of the Load (1)
Typically, we see a distinct daily profile of consumption that often varies by season
Week 1 (Mo – Sun)
Week 2 (Mo – Sun)

5. In Addition to Total Annual Demand, it is Important to Look at the Patterns/Profile of the Load (2)
We also usually observe an annual or seasonal variation in loads; may vary by region

6. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (1)

7. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (2)
Location of the load matters, particularly if transmission is congested; will impact benefits of smart-grid implementation

8. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (3)
The system is typically sized to reliably meet this peak demand

9. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (4)

10. Understanding the Load Profile is Important for Generation System Expansion, or Investment Planning
The pattern/shape of the demand has a significant impact on the technology selection
Different technologies have different technical and economic characteristics and operational capabilities and limitations
Served by high-cost generators
(e.g., gas turbines), also peaking hydro or pumped storage
Served by medium-cost flexible
generators (e.g., coal, combined cycles)
Served by low-cost base load generators (e.g. nuclear) 10

11. Example of Hourly Load Profile: New England (New Hampshire Electric Cooperative, 2008)

12. In Order to Better Understand the Overall Load Pattern, it Helps to Decompose the Load into Different Components
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Industry
Transport

13. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential
Source: comed.com

14. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential
Source: comed.com

15. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential (2)
Source: comed.com

16. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Commercial
Source: comed.com

17. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Industrial
Source: comed.com

18. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Street Lighting

19. Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e. g
Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles)
Must consider how much and how quickly the load evolves
Rate of PHEV penetration
Must consider locational considerations
Where is new load concentrated
Will impact transmission congestion, as well as system operations, electricity prices, and carbon emissions
Western Interconnect
Model Representation 19

20. Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e. g
Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles) 20

21. Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e. g
Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles) 21

22. Example Residential Electricity Consumption: What Happens behind the Socket in the Wall…

23. May need to be a rocket scientist...
Example Residential Electricity Consumption: When was the Last Time you Looked at your Utility Bill?
May need to be a rocket scientist...
(and actually understood it….)
14 different fees, charges, taxes
…or an Einstein

24. For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month?
U.S. Average: 920 kWh
Virginia: 1,173 kWh
2008 Average Monthly Residential Electricity Consumption (kWh) by State 24

25. For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? (2)

26. For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? (3)

27. For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much You Pay for Electricity?
U.S. Average: c/kWh
Virginia: 9.6 c/kWh
(2008 Average Residential Electricity Price (c/kWh) by State)

28. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household
Negative price: -21 c/kWh

29. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household

30. Even More Detail Can be Added to Improve Understanding of Load Pattern and Identify Efficiency and DSM Potential
Cooking
Air Conditioning
Lighting
Appliances
Space
heating
Water
heating

31. The Role of Demand Side Management (1)
Opportunities for demand side management drive investments in smart-grid and advanced metering infrastructure
Goal is to shift load to reduce peak loads
Flattens demand curve
Reduces generation cost by shifting to low-cost base-load generation
Reduces maintenance costs
Avoids/delays infrastructure investments (generation, transmission, distribution)
Can reduce overall consumption
Early DSM program (starting in 1980s) have primarily focused on commercial and industrial consumers
Mostly direct load control and tiered pricing
Smart-grid technology will impact DSM program focus
Shift from direct load control to dynamic pricing
Inclusion of residential and small-to-medium businesses

32. The Role of Demand Side Management (2)
Direct load control or incentive-based approaches
E.g., interruptible/curtailment rates
Allows utilities to control specific loads (e.g., air conditioning)
Consumer receives billing discount (e.g., fixed monthly payment for peak months)
Direct load control is offered by many utilities
One-third of utilities offer direct load contol for residential AC
Average participation 15%
About two-thirds offer direct load control to industrial and commercial costumers
Programs have proven cost-effective with substantial savings
29% average peak load reduction across a sample of 24 programs (Source: eMeter Strategic Consulting, 2007)

33. The Role of Demand Side Management (3)
Dynamic Pricing
Almost 1/3 of utilities offer some form of dynamic pricing
Time of use, critical peak pricing, real-time pricing
Current pilot programs show significant variation in residential peak load reduction with an average of about 22%
Impact on overall consumption may be very small
Consumption information and transparency
More frequent billing: Weekly/daily billing estimated to reduce consumption by 10-13%
In-home displays, estimated to save 4-15%
Smart-appliances and building automation may lead to peak reductions of over 40% and a decrease in consumption of about 11%
Where is my dishwasher control app, my real-time price app???

34. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (BEFORE)

35. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (BEFORE)
Loadguard Price Point
10 cents/kWh
14 cents/kWh

36. Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (AFTER)

37. Monthly Savings: Real-time Pricing versus Regulated Tariff

38. A Couple of Thoughts on my Personal Real-time Pricing Experiment
Substantial cost savings, energy savings unclear
Potential for information overload
Feedback is slow (delayed by a month)
Thermal comfort is compromised

39. Summary Load profiles play an important role in power system planning
When projecting future loads, changes in the load shape will have to be considered
Due to technology changes (e.g., smart-grid)
Due to technology introduction (e.g., electric vehicles)
Due to market/consumer incentives (new pricing mechanisms)
Energy efficiency and demand side management can play a significant role in shaping future load levels and profiles