1. Excom Early Look Business Plan 2000
Flaws in the Capital Allocation Process
The Capex requirements
The Over-promise on delivery
The Way Ahead

2. The Good News High quality internally consistent data submissions
Abundance of projects competing for funds:
1.9 bln US$ Exploration
7.0 bln US$ Production

3. The Bad News
Projects appear over-optimistic both in Exploration and Production
The Capital Allocation Process appears to be flawed with overstatements of key parameters to secure funds
We run the risk of initiating an Over-promise Under-delivery Cycle……...

4. Exploration-Overstated Value?
12000
11000
Salkhalin pre-consolidation
2000 Raw Data Submission
Each Exploration $ spend in 2001 adds $9 IBV at PSV14
10000
9000
8000
Cumulative IBV ($ mln)
7000
6000
1999 Raw Data Submission
Each Exploration $ spend in 2000 adds $6 IBV at PSV14
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
Cum Expex ($ mln)
0.35
1999 CA
2000 CA
0.30
Pos to FID shows
no major differences in 99 submission to 2000
0.25
Expex Spend
(Normalised)
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0-10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-60
60-70
70-80
80-90
Pos to FID

5. Exploration: Overstated Delivery?
600
The majority of 2001 exploration
spend is for projects planned
to take FID in 2002
500
400
Time to FID and first production
in data submissions very optimistic
and unrelated to historic performance
Expex 2001 ($ mln)
300
Oil
Nigeria
200
MRH
Gas
100
Deepwater
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

6. CAPEX REQUEST 2001-2005 Raw Data Submission
Proposed spend is ca $7 bln per year over the Plan Period*
8,000
*including follow-on E&A Woodside, and Shell Canada, excludes Saudi gas
7,000
Commercial Resource
Proposed A & D Activity
6,000
New E & A
Firm E & A
EB2
US$ mln MOD
5,000
New Dev. > $20 mln Shell Share
Tranche 3
Tranche 2
4,000
Tranche 1
PostFID Project
Corporate
3,000
Existing Asset
2,000
Total Capex request 2001 = $7.1 bln
Total Commitments 2001 = $2.7 bln
1,000
Commitment levels suspect
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
EP-Global Capex per CA Cat, Theme.ep

7. Production: Can we deliver on this promise?
3500
Nigeria is major part of EP Growth
Inside existing portfolio …..
Others are USA, Angola, Iran, Athabasca, Brasil, etc
3000
2500
2000
Daily Production (Kboe/d)
1500
Nigeria (SPDC)
Nigeria (SNEPCO)
1000
Others
500
2319
2327
2351
2291
2266 LE
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Production Forecast per Region and CA Cat - Raw data.rep

8. OIL PRODUCTION 2001-2005 Raw Data Submission
3500
Growth relies on E&A
3000
Commercial Resource
Proposed A & D Activity
2500
New E & A (Non Approved expex)
Firm E & A (Approved expex Funds)
EB-2
New Dev. > $20 mln Shell Share
2000
Tranche 3
Production ‘000 bbl/d
Tranche 2
Post FID and tranches replaces
decline in Existing Asset base
Tranche 1
1500
PostFID Project
Corporate
Existing Asset
1000
Oil Production from Existing
Assets halves during Plan Period (10 % per year)
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Production Forecast per Region and CA Cat - Raw data.rep

9. Major Concerns
Existing Assets require 800 Million US$ in 2001 without adding production...
Most large post-FID projects indicate underdelivery compared with 1999
New projects have very aggressive FID dates (36 FIDs in 2001 excluding big tickets e.g. Saudi Gas) and possibly overstated value promises
E&A Follow Up extremely optimistic when compared with history
Not enough funds for promising projects and strategic options

10. CAPEX CREAMING CURVE Existing Asset
50,000
45,000
Existing Asset
40,000
Post FID Project
Historical performance raises questions over ambitious future promises
Options
35,000
30,000
EA NLNG
NPV ($mln)
AOSP
25,000
Bonga Main
20,000
Malampaya
15,000
But…some big projects
approved were poorer ranking
10,000
The promise
The delivery
5,000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Cumulative Capex in 2001 ($mln)

11. Exploration Discoveries 1990-1999
Development
100%
10 years
ONLY
15% Developed
80%
Bonga discovered ‘95, onstream 2003
Brazil, not a well drilled yet, production by 2005
5 year
Plan Period
60%
Promise
Sable
Island
40%
34%
% Developed
20%
% Developed 0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
>> 34% Development percentage Exploration discoveries
within 5 years has not been achieved to date ….
Plan Excl. Sakhalin & OKIOC

12. MAJOR PROJECT FIDs 2000 from BP’99
Timing
CA 2000
Timing
Country Projects with FIDs in 2000
Shell Malaysia (total)
KN ROUND 2
1999
Shell Malaysia (total)
KN S1S2
1999
Shell Iran
Soroosh /Nowrooz
On-time
Shell USA
Oregano
Shell USA
Serrano
Shell USA
Na Kika
Shell USA
North Marlin
Norske Shell
Garn West
Shell UK Expro
Mandarin
SPDC
Cawthorne Channel
Bonny Terminal Refurbishment
Brunei Shell
Champion West Existing Facilities
SOGU
Dan Infill and Debottlenecking
Slipped
Shell Egypt N.V.
Obaiyed South Devt
Shell UK Expro
Goldeneye
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Uzbekistan Alan & Kandym
Shell Australia
NWS LNG Expansion U/S
Shell Australia
ALNG LNG Train 1 U/S
Brunei Shell
Egret Development
Shell UK Expro
Cleaver Bank High
Shell Capsa
Cerro Tuyunti Sth. ?
A/S Norske Shell
Sogn Gjoa Development ?
Shell Devt. Pakistan B.V.
Kirthar Block : Bhit dev ?

13. MAJOR PROJECT FIDs 2000 from BP’9936 25 30
Options Deferred
Base Deferred
Options Plan/Actual
Base Plan/Actual
Champion
Dan Infill
T2T upstream
Cleaver Bank
Egret
Bangestan
Obayied South
Goldeneye 30
Bangestan 25
Kuwait Oil 20 15
No of Major FIDs in Plan 10 5
1999
99 Actual
2000
00 LE
2001
12 major Base Plan projects planned for FID in 2000 (BP 99) - 5 will now take FID
13 major Options projects planned for FID in 2000 (BP 99) - 6 will now take FID

14. MAJOR PROJECTS WITH PROMISES OF FID IN 2001….
Capex
Capex (Risked)
Country Project
VAR coverage in 2001
on Total Capex
Australia (Direct)
Gorgon SMDS Upstream 46
Brunei
Champion West Central Platform Dev 1 75
Initiation
Brunei
East Gas Expansion 4 38
(<1 %)
Brunei
Egret Development. Phase 1 3 40
Feasibility
(42 %)
Denmark
Halfdan Phase III
102
475
Denmark
Halfdan Phase II 41 65
Denmark
GSA4 13 75
Denmark
Dan Infill and Debottlenecking 8 42
Denmark
Skjold Phase II 32 32
Egypt
Obaiyed South & Compression I 26 85
Malaysia
96 PSC : BT/SF Stage IVC(SF30) WI Int. 1 31
No VAR
New Zealand
Pohokura Development 3 26
(50 %)
Concept
Nigeria (SNEPCO)
Erha Main 48
902
FID
(3 %)
Nigeria (SNEPCO)
EWTF (Extended Well Test Facility)
118
128
(5 %)
Nigeria (SPDC)
92 Offshore Pipeline AF - NLNG 1-5 87
184
Total Capex from 2001 FID
projects amounts to $4 bln in
plan period
Nigeria (SPDC)
49 UGHELLI 24
122
Nigeria (SPDC)
66 OTUMARA - NLNG 4/5 16
117
Nigeria (SPDC)
67 SAPELE 1 90
Nigeria (SPDC)
45 OGUTA 3 77
Nigeria (SPDC)
61 BONNY - NLNG 3 1 29
Nigeria (SPDC)
98 WAGP 22 22
36 Projects with >20 mln spend excluding Major Options e.g. Bangestan, Saudi Gas

15. MAJOR PROJECTS WITH FID IN 2001 - continued
Capex
Capex (Risked)
Country Project
VAR coverage in 2001
on Total Capex
Norway
Kollsnes and Vestprosess Upgrade 53
Initiation
Philippines
Malampaya Oil Rim Devt - unrisked 6 83
(<1 %)
Russia (Rest of)
Salym 29
129
Feasibility
Syria
Souedie 26
(42 %) UK
Goldeneye 7
151 UK
Loyal Phase II (W.o.S) 31 65 UK
Puffin Field Development 9 62 UK
Schiehallion Extension Claw 9 57 UK
Scoter 55 UK
Schiehallion North Channel 21
USA
Holstein 26
327
USA
Habanero 39
USA
Manatee 14 33
USA
Alex Gas Devt Phase 2 22 22
No VAR
Venezuela
Further Dev. (1) 64
(50 %)
Concept
FID
(3 %)
(5 %)
Total Capex from 2001 FID
projects circa $4 bln in
plan period
36 Projects with >20 mln spend excluding Major Options e.g. Bangestan, Saudi Gas

16. Existing Assets / Post FID Ranking (2001 Capex > $20 million)
$14/bbl
Existing Assets / Post FID Ranking (2001 Capex > $20 million) 1 4 2
Australia - NWS Existing US
High
Canada Existing Assets
Syria - AFPC Existing Facilities
Malaysia - MLNG PSC New (F23/F6/E11 Comp.)
Netherlands -NAM Plan - Scenario 1
UK - Existing assets
Abu Dhabi - Existing Oil Business
65%
Denmark - Halfdan Phase I
Oman - 1a PB01M NFA TRAN W 7 5
$14/bbl Attractiveness
Medium 3
Oman - GISCO
USA - Brutus
Philippines - Malampaya Gas Devt
SPDC - 42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
USA - Crosby
SPDC - 48 SOKU - NLNG 1-2
45% 9 8 6
Argentina - VALLE MORADO
USA - Ursa
UK - ExAss Brent Gas Contract
Egypt - POST FID Obaiyed
Low
SNEPCO - Bonga-Main
Malaysia - MLNG Dua PSC New (M4. B11. etc)
Iran - Soroosh/Nowrooz Integ.
SPDC - 02 Value Preservation
SPDC - 03 Bonny Terminal
SPDC - 90 EA Equity and Carry - NLNG 3
Norway - Troll Oil
SPDC - 91 Offshore Pipeline - NLNG 1-5
Russia - Caspian Pipeline Consortium
Canada - Athabasca Oil Sands Project
Sakhalin - Molikpaq
MRH
Nigeria
Deepwater
Gas
Oil
UK - ExAss Skua
Brunei - Ampa Fairley Rationalisation Phase 1
USA - Aera Equity
Low
Medium
High
Strategic Imperative

17. EMPTY $ 5.5 BLN CAPEX CEILING FOR EXISTING OUs $14/bbl
Tranches 1-3 & New Projects (FID Q & 2001 Capex > $20 mln) 2
Egypt - Obaiyed South & comp. I 1 4
High
Netherlands - NAM Plan - Scenario 3
Syria - AFPC Tranche 1a (FID 2000)
Netherlands - NAM Scenario 2 - 1st Increml tranche
Thailand - Tranche 1 S1 2000
UK - Tranche1 FID01
USA - Tranche 1. DW. non-EB2. FID 2001
UK -Tranche1 FID00 committed
SPDC - 49 UGHELLI
Oman - 2aPB01M DEV TRAN W
65% 7 5
USA - Oregano 3
USA - Holstein
$14/bbl Attractiveness
Medium
SNEPCO - Ext. WTF
Base
Russia - Salym
EMPTY
UK - Tranche1 FID01 FOP
UK - Schieh infill 1
UK - Loyal Phase II
Options
45%
USA - Nakika 9 8 6
Low
SNEPCO - Erha Main
UK - Tranche3 FID01 FOP
UK - Tranche 3 FID01 FOP
MRH
Nigeria
Deepwater
Gas
Oil
UK - Foin Infill1
UK - Foinaven East
Low
Medium
High
Strategic Imperative

18. EMPTY $14/bbl $ 5.5 BLN CAPEX CEILING……DENMARK & BIG PROJECTS IN
Tranches 1-3 & New Projects (FID Q & 2001 Capex > $20 mln)
Total Capex (2001) Box 2 is $200 mln
Total Capex (2001) in Box 1 is $470 mln 4 1
High
Syria - AFPC Tranche 1a (FID 2000) 2
Thailand - Tranche 1 S1 2000
Base
UK -Tranche 1 FID00 committed
Options
65% 7 5 3
USA - Oregano
$14/bbl Attractiveness
USA - Holstein
SNEPCO - Ext WTF
Medium
EMPTY
Russia - Salym
UK - Tranche1 FID01 FOP
UK - Schieh infill 1
UK - Loyal Phase II
Total Capex (2001) in
Box 3 is $910 mill
45%
USA - Nakika 9 8 6
Low
SNEPCO - Erha Main
MRH
Nigeria
Deepwater
Gas
Oil
UK - Tranche 3 FID01 FOP
UK - Tranche3 FID01 FOP
UK - Foinaven East
UK - Foin Infill1
Low
Medium
High
Projects inserted to Base Plan
Strategic Imperative

19. CAPEX CREAMING CURVE Big Tickets
NPV Bln $
Success Case $ 3-4 Bln/yr
Angola 18 Dev
Zapolyarnoye
Woodside Deal
Sakhalin
South Pars
Brazil
China
Saudi Gas
Libya
NEMED
Bangestan
Ehra
EA NLNG
AOSP
Bonga Main
Malampaya
Deepwater Options
Na Kika
Holstein
Serrano
Oregano
FID in next 30 months
Existing Assets
Post FID
New Devt & Tranches
Big Tickets
Cumulative Capex in 2001

20. The Way Forward..(1)
We accept the flaws in the process, challenge the submissions at the workshop, build the 2000 Plan and make a “promise adjustment” at Excom level:
existing assets minus 200 Million US$
post-FID minus 400 Million US$
weed out “false promises” to the tune of 400 Million US$
adjust production promise
Manage Improvement through the scorecards
We must address the integrity flaws in the CA process and send a very strong signal...

21. The Way Forward..(2) We demand a resubmission….we change the workshop:
We explain our problems to the delegates at workshop.
We ask the delegates to return to their OU/NVOs and rework their submissions and restore reality
Key OU/NVOs will be invited for a hard challenge session with the Excom (large OUs) or their RBD.
After resubmission of sanitised data, a final ranking will be done with the RBA/RFA community.

22. Two Possible Schedules
Improve
Improve
Workshop OU
Financials
Final OU
Plan
Excom
Adjustment
27-28/6
10/7
6/9
14/9
Improve/challenge
EPB-RBD
Resub-
mission
Workshop
Allocation OU
Financials
Final OU
Plan
10/7
17/7
28/7
6/9

23. BACKUPS ….DETAILS

24. KEY METRICS - RAW DATA
Value continues to be dominated by traditional OUs
Nigeria dominance of production growth not reflected in value
Deepwater excludes SNEPCO
Ranked out production in ,000 bbls/d
Does not reflect OUs outside EP control - (SOGU)

25. SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITIES ….RANKED OUT
Short Term Oil Projects are predominantly in Shell Expro…..
UTCs $ /bbl
VIRs [$14]
low / medium strategic fit. …….

26. CAPEX CREAMING CURVE - THE BUILDING BLOCKS
The promise
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
37000
39000
41000
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
Tranche 1
Tranche 2
Tranche 3
New Dev. > $20 mln Shell Share
EB2
Ehra
NI-Oguta
BR-East gas exp
DE-Dan infill
NI-LNG 4/5
DE-Halfdan II
TCGP
Salym
Holstein
Na Kika
NPV $14
BR-Champion West
Tranche 3
Sunrise
Puffin
Bangestan
NI-LNG 1-5
Tranche 1
UK-Goldeneye
Malampaya Oil rim
DE-GSA4
NI-Ughelli
Tranche 2
EG-Obaiyed South
Cumulative Capex in 2001
On merit NaKika, Holstein & Ehra do not rank

27. “EXISTING ASSET” CATEGORY CAPEX 2001
160
ie 800 mln - 18% of Devt Capex Budget……
Same level as 2000
no additional production generated
keeping brownfield plant operating & ready for new devts
Value adding or value erosion (vs 502Fs)
Country Name
Capex 2001
Abu Dhabi 52
Australia (Direct) 27
Brunei 34
Denmark 7
Egypt 15
Gabon
Germany 13
Malaysia 17
Netherlands 47
New Zealand 2
Nigeria (SPDC)
152
Norway
Oman 81
Syria 23 UK
144
USA
160
Total
794
140
120
100
US$ mln MOD 80 60 40 20
USA UK
Oman
Syria
Brunei
Egypt
Gabon
Malaysia
Norway
Germany
Denmark
Abu Dhabi
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nigeria (SPDC)
Australia (Direct)
EP-Global Capex on Existing Assets.rep

28. OIL & GAS PRODUCTION 2001-2005 BY OU Raw Data Submission
Nigeria Largest producer by 2005 with threefold growth!
Production dominated by the big three in plan period
Without Nigeria growth,…
- still only 2 OUs ~ 300+ Kboe/d S/S
- 5 OUs ~ kboe/d by 2005
- 3 OUs ~ kboe/d by 2005
- 10 OUs~ <100 kboe/d OUs by 2005

29. A few Outcomes from the Raw Data…..….
Raw data quality is good,
……….but there is a large request will be a tough competition for funds
……….Large number of attractive new devts & tranche funds
Large amount of funds for existing assets & Post FIDs ca $4 Bln
To maintain oil production requires ca $5 Bln, with 100 % delivery
Before we consider more capex funds…..there are some issues….
But new devt “promises” are different from Vol- 1 findings
……….Most post FID projects have been under delivering production
……….Most projects have aggressive schedules vs Vol-1 reality
……….VAR programme will have to be accelerated to meet FID planned
……….Last years E&A followup developments have largely not materialised
How do we avoid an “over promise & under delivery” cycle…?

30. KEY ISSUES Production under-performance
CURRENT PERFORMANCE
Production under-performance
1999: UK, Egypt, SPDC, Syria, Netherlands
2000 LE: Oil : Essentially on target but SPDC,
Gas : Egypt, Argentina, Netherlands, US
Major New Project Delivery
1999 on-stream disappointments due mainly to project schedule delays
2000 onwards (CA 2000) suggests production under-delivery (sub-surface & facilities)
Reserves Replacement
2000 LE 24 % with major concerns throughout Plan Period
FUTURE PROMISES
Continued reliance upon Nigeria (and our ability to grow oil production there)
Need to avoid over promising and under delivering cycle.
Continued pursuit of major Capex spend outside of existing portfolio ..are regretting oil?

31. CAPEX SPEND 2001 BY COUNTRY - Raw Data Submission
Total Capex request 2001 = $7.1 bln
Total Commitments = $ 2.7 bln
Top 5 countries requested 60% of total Capex
Next 10 countries requested 30% of total Capex
US$ mln MOD
The tail = 10 %

32. RESERVES REPLACEMENT - RAW DATA
You need to believe that the “hopes” in Angola
and Brazil and new gas come off to replace reserves...
Woodside Effect

33. SFR MATURATION RATES - RAW DATA

34. Sable
Island

35. IBV raw data submission versus 1999
1999 & 2000 value creation is limited……..
data assumes all planned 2000 FIDs are achieved ….unlikely based on LE
highly optimistic forward looking 2001 to 2005 (Nigeria assumed growth not likely…)
eg 2001 assumes we take roughly one big project FID per month (ranked in)….
The delivery
The promise
80000
23%
70000
21%
2000 Plan
15%
60000
1999 Plan
50000 1%
IBVc Mln US $
- 1 %
- 5%
40000
30000
20000
10000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

36. CAPEX REQUEST 2001 BY REGION Raw data Submission
3500
3290
Total Capex MOD
3000
Committed Capex (MOD)
2500
Total Capex request 2001 = $7.1 bln
Total Commitments = $2.7 bln
1911
US$ mln MOD
2000
1500
1057
1095
1000
776
682
459
500
322 93
EPN
EPG
EPM
EPA EP
EP-Global Committed Capex in 2001 by CA-Category.rep

37. CAPEX REQUEST 2001 BY THEME Raw data Submission
Total Capex request 2001 = $7 bln
Total Commitments = $2.6 bln
Excluding: Woodside, Shell Canada
US$ mln MOD
1552
SNEPCO in
Nigeria
Theme ($500 mln)
EP-Global Committed Capex in 2001 by CA-Category.rep

38. OIL & GAS PRODUCTION 2001-2005 BY REGION Raw Data Submission
3500
Liquids grow 50%
- predominantly in Nigeria & Brazil
2005
3000
OIL/NGL
2004
2500
EPG
2002
'000 bbls/d
2000
EPM
EPA
1500
1000
EPN
500
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2000
120
GAS
Gas grows 50 % - across the board
EPG
2004
100
1500
EPM 80
'000 boe/d
Mrd Sm3/yr
EPA
1000 60
EPN 40
500 20
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
Production per Region - Raw data.rep

39. OIL & GAS PRODUCTION 2001-2005 BY THEME Raw Data Submission
Production per Region - Raw data.rep
500
1000
1500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Nigeria
MRH
Deepwater
Gas
Oil
GAS
'000 boe/d
'000 bbls/d
2500
3000
3500
OIL/NGL
Nigeria accounts for
most of the growth in liquids
Bonga

40. Needs to be updated yet…..
KEY METRICS - RAW DATA
Value continues to be dominated by traditional OUs………...
Nigeria dominance of production growth not reflected in value
Incorrect…!
Needs to be updated yet…..
MRH now includes Venezuela hence no value at $14
Deepwater excludes SNEPCO
Ranked out production in ,000 bbls/d
Does not reflect OUs outside EP control - (SOGU)

41. SUMMARY Growth in production is a major challenge
Existing oil assets decline 50% by , kb/d
New project schedules & project forecasts need realism
Growth story dominated by Nigeria
Still Big 3 and small 15
Reserves replacement is a key issue
Brazil, Angola, CIS - new hope and OKIOC
Given the bullishness of submissions….
Need to calibrate to ensure BP’2000 does not under deliver.

42. Backups

43. EP / GP Linked Projects (FID < 3 years)
2001 Option
Capex
($ mill)
Capex
Matrix
Pos.
Capex
Ranking
EP/GP
Lead
Malaysia MLNG Tiga Base GP
Australia NWS LNG Train 4 Option 4 6 GP
ALNG Train 1 Option - 5 GP
China Ordos / Changbei Option Expex (in) EP
Russia Piltun-Lunskoye Option Expex (in) EP
Egypt NEMed SMDS Option Expex (in) EP
Iran Iran SMDS Option 2 6 Both
Turkmenistan T2T Pipeline to Turkey Option EP
Saudi Arabia Saudi Maturation Project Option - - EP
Nigeria NLNG 3 Base 501 misc EP
NLNG 4 Option 45 misc EP
West Africa Gas Pipeline Base 6 3 EP
Abuja Gas Pipeline Base 2 3 EP
Venezuela VLNG Option 7 6 GP
Namibia Kudu Base - - EP
TOTAL (Base) 533
TOTAL (Options) 76
65%
45%
Current Capex Ranking Cut-Off is Box 50%

44. EP/GP Integrated Economics

45. KEY ISSUES - EP / GP Linked Projects
Country
Project Name
Upstream Capex
Malaysia MLNG Tiga
Australia NWS LNG Train 4
ALNG Train 1
ALNG Train 2
NAGV Domgas & FLNG
Gorgon SMDS
China Ordos / Changbei
Kuqa
Russia Sakhalin (Piltun-Lunskoye)
Egypt NEMED SMDS
Iran Iran SMDS
Turkmenistan T2T Pipeline to Turkey
Saudi Arabia Saudi Gas Project
Nigeria NLNG 3
NLNG 4
West Africa Gas Pipeline
Venezuela VLNG
Namibia Kudu …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. 7 ….

46. 26th JUNE - Position in CA 2000 Sequence
7th June : Exploration Proto-Forum Discussion on expex ranking
13th June : Expex/Capex Data Pack (early rankings/views) to RBAs for Consideration
(EP / SIG Alignment Meetings take place as required per region)
19th June : Some Regions Holding RBAs & OUs Meeting
(Improve data quality & identify implications of expex & capex ranking)
22-23th June : EXPEX Workshop
26th June : EXCOM Raw Data and Issues
27-28th June : CAPEX Workshop
10th July : EXCOM Presentation on Expex, Devt Capex & with Early Financials
14th July : OU Investment level letters (Expex, Capex, etc)
31st July : EXCOM Presentation on Final Expex & Capex
11th Aug : OU Investment Confirmation (as per 2001 Scorecard Outlines)

47. KEY ISSUES - Decline of “Existing Asset” base
Production (kbbl/d)
Capex mln ($ MOD)
Existing Assets
Existing Assets
Decline to by half in the plan period……
and cost $0.8 bln/yr to maintain
Production Forecast per Region and CA Cat - Raw data.rep

48. KEY ISSUES - Arresting the decline with post FID projects
Production (kbbl/d)
Capex mln ($ MOD)
Post FID projects
Post FID projects
Existing Assets
Existing Assets
Post FID projects do not arrest the decline……
but cost a further $1.4 bln/yr …...
Production Forecast per Region and CA Cat - Raw data.rep

49. KEY ISSUES - Arresting the decline
Maintaining current production levels costs $5.1 bln in 2001 and av. of $3.0 bln over plan period
Adding tranche activity……
cost a $0.8 bln/yr
but does not halt the decline
Tranches
Tranches
Post FID projects
Post FID projects
Existing Assets
Existing Assets

50. KEY ISSUES Arresting the decline - the new promises
Production (kboe/d)
Devt Capex ($ mln)
E&A follow up
New development
E&A follow up
Tranches
New development
OU Ceilings
Post FID projects
Tranches
Post FID projects
Existing Assets
Existing Assets

51. KEY ISSUES - Allowing further Funds for Existing OUs.
Devt Capex ($ mln)
Oil Contribution
9000
UTC = …..
VIR avg = …..
Time to prodn = …..
Short Term Oil projects
and new devts in existing
OUs.
8000
7000
6000 50
5000
OU Ceilings 40
4000
E&A follow up 30
Tranches
3000
New development 20
2000
Post FID projects 10
1000
Existing Assets
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Country Summary report Regional view.rep

52. BIG TICKET ITEMS…Planned to take FID by end 2002/early 2003
Capex Requirements $ mln (till 2005)
Possible People Resources Reqd
Nigeria -Ehra
900
Nigeria
25+
2000
25+
Egypt - NEMED (no dilute)
Global DW
Business Staffed up
Egypt
Brazil - BC-10+
670
Brazil
25+
Angola - Blk -18
Angola
1400
25+
China deals
600
China deals
25+(?)
Venezuela LNG 7
Venezuela LNG
(?)
MRH Others (Kuwait, Lybia )
600
MRH Entry Others ….
25+
Bangestan
740
Bangestan
25+
MRH & CIS
Business
South Pars
370
South Pars
25+
Zapolynaroye
550
Zapolynaroye
50+
Saudi Gas development
2400
Saudi Gas development
100+
Sakhalin 40 % Gas devt I
1500
Sakhalin deal & Gas devt I
150+
Possibly 500+ Staff required ……..
Possibly requiring $11,000+ mln in plan period.

53. Shell Expro - Existing Assets capex

54. BSP Capex Corporate & Existing Assets

57. PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE FROM NEW PROJECTS IS DISAPPOINTING……...
Egypt
(…Rosetta same)
POST FID Obaiyed
CAPEX
OIL
1999
Gas
1999 70
1999 20
2000
1.6
2000
First slippage…
then less
hydrocarbons
forecast
2000 18 60
1.4 16
1.2 50
+ 15 well Infill
Campaign 14 12 1 40
mln $ MOD
Production (x'000 bbls/d) 10
mrd Sm3/yr
0.8 30 8
0.6 20 6
0.4 4 10 2
0.2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Argentina
VALLE MORADO
CAPEX - VALLE MORADO
OIL - VALLE MORADO
1999
GAS - VALLE MORADO
1999 30
1999
0.9
2000
0.8
2000
2000
0.8
0.7 25
0.7
0.6 20
0.6
0.5
Capex (mln $ MOD)
0.5 15
'000 bbls/d
mrd Sm3/yr
0.4
0.4
0.3 10
0.3
0.2
0.2 5
0.1
0.1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

58. PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE FROM NEW PROJECTS IS DISAPPOINTING……...UK
Brigantine Development
Brigantine Development
Brigantine Development
Brigantine Development 60
1.2
0.9
1999 Gas
1999 Capex
1999 Oil
0.8
2000 Gas 50 1
2000 Capex
2000 Oil
0.7 40
0.8
0.6
mln $ MOD
0.5 30
'000 bbls/d
0.6
mrd Sm3/yr
0.4 20
0.4
0.3
0.2 10
0.2
0.1
2001
2003
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2002
2004
Nigeria
42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
1999 Oil
120
1999 Capex 70
0.2
1999 Gas
2000 Oil
2000 Capex
0.18
2000 Gas
100 60
0.16 50 80
0.14 40
0.12
mln $ MOD 60
'000 bbls/d
mrd Sm3/yr
0.1 30
0.08 40 20
0.06 20
0.04 10
0.02
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

59. MAJOR Post-FID PROJECTS ….CAPEX
Brutus Capex
Brutus - indications of capex rephasing…
Onstream date unchanged
350
300
CA 1999
CA 2000
250
Costs are expected to be lower...
Devt Capex ($ mln)
AOSP - indications that capex 2001 is
larger than planned due to
slippage in schedule……..
200
150
100 50
Bonga - indications of capex increase……
indications of slippage……
Onstream date unchanged
1998
2000
2002
2004
Time (Years)
Bonga Devt Capex
450
400
CA 1999
350
CA 2000
Nowrooz/Sarooz -
2001 & 2002 capex slippage……
Onstream date unchanged
300
Devt Capex ($ mln)
250
- Increased drilling costs
200
- Increased project mgmt costs
150
100
Shearwater - capex will be under budget
& on time…. 50
2000
2002
2004
2006
POST-FID Underspend Likely
$400 mln additional
Time (Years)

60. MAJOR Post-FID PROJECTS IN PROGRESS….PRODUCTION
Brutus - Peak production in 2002 & 2003 is now lower
Not a barrel produced yet…..
(Is this a meaningful signal …)
Brutus Oil Production
100
CA 1999 90
CA 2000 80 70 60
Oil Productn (kbbl/d) 50 40
lower peak oil production 30
but higher cum production
by ca 40 mln bbl by 2016 20 10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Bonga - Peak production in 2003 & 2004 is lower
(system remodelling, revised subsea
layouts & well timings)
Time (Years)
Bonga Oil Production
120
5 - 7 % decline following further studies.
110
100 90
Production (kbbl/d) 80
- revised subsea layouts &
Shearwater - Production unchanged ,
capex will be reduced vs budgets. 70
well timings 60
CA 1999 50
CA 2000 40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Time (Years)
POST-FID Production is lower across the board
Cannot find examples of increases…..

61. “Big Ticket” Items Additional Capex vs BP ‘99
3500
Original FID Timings
Revised FID Timings
3000
2500
2000
Devt Capex ($ mln)
1500
1000
500
BP ‘99 CAPEX
6062
5371
4962
4945
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

62. Oil Production Difference Major Post FID Projects
1999 vs 2000 CA Raw Data Submission
OIL mbopd
300
+66%
CA 1999
CA 2000
Difference %
250
2000 58 46
-12
-21%
2001
132
116
-16
-12%
200
2002
317
231
-86
-27%
+33%
2003
430
456 26 6%
150
2004
484
646
162
33%
Mbopd
2005
432
715
283
66%
100 50
+6%
-21%
-12%
-27%
-50
-100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Years