1. How on Earth can we Live Together
Göran Carstedt
Stonehouse Summit, Jan

2. Our Unsustainable Journey
Global warming
Water scarcity
Biodiversity
Poverty …

4. Capacity Responsibility RCI Projections Target
total income, excluding income below the development threshold (USD 20/day)
Responsibility
cumulative emissions since 1990 (excluding emissions from consumption below threshold)
RCI
Responsibility Capacity Index
Projections
IEA World Energy Outlook (2007)
Target
emission reduction pathways to hold global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (peak 2013 (429 ppm), 80% below 1990 level at 2050)

7. Canada & Sweden

8. Göran Carstedt 2007

9. Copenhagen November 2009 Post Kyoto- National commitments
Risk for Success
Political compromises
Nature not at the table

10. IPCC- Group III Report, May 2007
Global GHG emissions must be reduced by 50-80% to year 2050
to limit global warming to + 2 C
today’s 379 ppm must be leveled off at ppm
assuming max point at the latest 2015
Global GHG emissions have increased by 70% from 1970 to 2004
by +24% since 1990
with Business as Usual, additional % by 2030
Total cost to stabilize GHG concentrations
less than 3% of global GNP year 2030
= yearly global growth of 3.5% instead of 3.6%

11. GHG Emissions 1990-2004 Kyoto objective -8% 1990-2012: Change Total
Europe % bln tCO2eq
Japan % bln
USA +16% bln
Canada + 25% 0,7 bln
Australia +25% bln
Kyoto objective -8% :
Source: UNFCCC (2006)
Göran Carstedt 2007

12. GHG Emissions Europe: 1990-2005
Germany %
UK %
Sweden %
Italy %
Ireland %
Spain %
Source: EEA (2007)
Göran Carstedt 2007

13. CO2 Emissions per Person
India (ton per year)
China 5
Sweden 7
Germany
USA/Canada 20
Global (can absorb max 1,5)

14. Per capita CO2 emissions (in tonnes)
All sources; other GHGs not included
China’s level and rate of growth likely to be understated
Integrated energy report of 11th 5year plan states that India wants to quadruple energy from coal over the next 25 years
China likely to double within the next 20 years

15. Emissions – targets & commitments
EU27: 20% (1990)
Germany: 36% (1990)
UK: 26% (1990) (into law)
France: 25% (1990)
Sweden: 30% (1990)
Japan 6% (1990)
China 20% (2007) (efficiency)
Göran Carstedt 2007

16. Emissions – targets & commitments
California: 25% (1990)
London: 30% (1990)
+30% EU & UK Government
New York City: 30% (2007)
Paris: 75% (2004)
Stockholm: % 2050 (1990)
Tokyo: 25% (2000)
Rotterdam: 50% (1990)
Göran Carstedt 2007

17. European Parliament- dec 2008
Plan by 2020:
20% reduction of GHG emissions (1990)
20% increase in use of renewable energy
20% improved energy efficiency
+10% of transportation fuels= biofuels, electricity, hydrogen
GHG reductions compared with fossil fuels
35% -> 50% -> 60%
(2011) (2013) (2017)
Second generation biofuels = double credited
2012: 130 g CO2/km
2020: 95 g CO2/km
today: 160g CO2/km

18. Sweden (1990-2006) GHG emissions down 8.7%
Economic growth up 44%

19. Sweden CO2 tax from 1990 ($ 120/ton CO2) Electricity certificates
CO2 differentiated vehicle taxes
Tax exemtion for biofuels to 2012
Tax exemptions for energy saving retro fitting
Public education

20. Sweden The Oil Commission (2005)- Independant of oil at 2020
will succeed in heating of buildings
Biofuels (pellets)
Waste
Combined heat & power
Energy efficiency
Transportation?
2008: 35% of new cars sold- green cars
(mostly ethanol flexifuel)
Still small proportion of total fleet
Retrofitting of used cars coming

21. Denmark Very hard hit by the oilcrises 1973 What did they do?
Too dependant on oilimports
Today self suffiscient in energy
Exports oil, gas, electricity
More people wiling to pay higher prices for clean energy, than in any other EU country
What did they do?
Taxes on fuel and electricity
District heating system (waste & cogeneration)
Building codes
Subsidies to energy efficient appliances
Supporting Wind Farms (20% of electricity- Vestas)

22. Denmark Energy consumption 1975-2005 +/- 0 (USA +40%) GDP 200%
Denmark= kwh p.a. in electriciy per person
USA = kwh

23. Price of electricity in Denmark compared to:
US %
France +24%
UK %

24. Obama
Yes, We can!

25. Transformational Change?

26. A leadership challenge…
- Technological challenge
what technologies can help us?
- Political challenge
what society do we want to live in?
- Organisational challenge
how can we make it happen?

27. - Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008
”I was struck by the countries that won’t meet their Kyoto targets… They aren’t lazy, they aren’t stupid and they are not corrupt.
They’re well-meaning, hard-working people who are, like all political leaders, facing all kinds of competing pressures in an economy that is not organized for tomorrow’s energy- it’s organized for yesterday’s.”
- Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008

28. What if…
our organizations are not capable to deal with the complexities we are now meeting?
GC 2001

29. What if organizations don't act like machines, but more like living communities?

30. What if… change is less about reorganizing,restructuring and reengineering and more about reconceiving?
GC 2001

31. What if people don’t mind change, but they do mind being changed?

32. What if people are not led by managers, but by good ideas ?
GC 2001

33. What if you can only earn people's trust by being trustworthy?
(GC 1997)

34. Learning
Why do we confront learning opportunities with fear rather than wonder?
Why do we derive our self-esteem from knowing as opposed to learning?
Why do we criticise before we even understand?
Why do we create controlling bureaucracies when we attempt to form visionary enterprises?
Why do we persist in fragmentation and piecemeal analysis as the world becomes more and more interconnected?
Peter Senge

35. Optimistic or Pessimistic?

36. The Industrial Revolution - transformed our society
no master plan
no starting/end point
not led by anyone
not an initiative of any political, governmental or religious body
GC 2000

37. Industrial Revolutionen
The product of millions of small beginnings
A process of making things better
Outpouring of human creativity
Changing Perceptions- among the many people
GC 2000

39. ”There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come. ”
”There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come.” - Victor Hugo