1. Globalization and its effects
(some evidence)
Jože P. Damijan
University of Ljubljana

2. Globalization Globalization: good or bad?
Trade routes and the shrinking Globe
What defines globalization?
Trade liberalization, capital account deregulation, IT rev.
Why is it proceeding rapidly?
Evidence
Global trade flows
Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows
Globalization: good or bad?

3. Evolution of globalization

4. History of globalization
Traits of globalization can be traced to as far back as the Roman Empire
The Silk Road started in China, reached portions of the Parthian Empire and ended in Rome
The trade route helped to integrate the three economies of the Han Dynasty, Persian and Roman Empires.

5. History of Globalization
The word "globalization" has been used by economists since 1981.
The concepts only became popular in the later half of the 1990s.
The first era of globalization (in the fullest sense) during the 19th century:
rapid growth of trade between the European imperial powers, the European colonies, and the United States.
After World War II, globalization was restarted
driven by major advances in technology, which led to lower trading costs.

6. Globalization Definitions
World wide integration and deepening of economic activities
Integrated production and consumption systems
Facilitated by IT revolution, liberalization and deregulation
Unprecedented mobility of goods, services, capital and people
Events all over the world strongly interdependent
i.e. global financial and economic crisis

7. Drivers of Globalization
open markets - it could not happen if import quotas or high tariffs prevented the sales.
cheap air transport - the beat-up old Boeings that have become the tramp steamers of modern trade.
modern telecommunications - the vegetables are delivered to order, i.e. messages must be sent to the farmers in a way that used to be possible only in advanced countries with good phone systems.

8. Evidence

9. Global trade flows 1948-2011 1970-1980: increase by 1.7 t$ (6.4x)
Source: UNCTADstat.

10. Global trade 1948-2011 until 1972: advanced countries peaked at 77%
: oil boom
after 1986: devel.c. up from 21% to 43%, advanced down to 53%
Source: UNCTADstat.

11. Export boom in developing countries
after 1970: export boom started in Asia, revival after 1985 (from 300 b$ to 4.2 t$
China export boom only after 1999 (from 200 b$ to 1.9 t$)
Source: UNCTADstat.

12. Export shares of developing countries
Africa down to 8%, Latin Am. down to 14%
China up to 24%, other Asia stabilized at 54%
Oil exporters down from 30% to 19%
Source: UNCTADstat.

13. Another dimension of global trade - services
goods’ exports up to 18 t$, services’ exports up to 4 t$
lower growth rates of services’ trade
Source: UNCTADstat.

14. Global trade openness: goods vs. services
goods’ trade by far contributes more to GDP than services’ trade
Source: UNCTADstat.

15. Global trade openness In 1980-2011, trade openness increased by 10 ppt
Developing countries more open than advanced (by 10 ppt)
Source: UNCTADstat.

16. Global FDI stocks
Similar trends of global FDI stocks as with global exports
2/3 of global FDI stocks directed to advanced countries
Source: UNCTADstat.

17. Global FDI stocks
Similar trends in exports and FDI between advanced and develp. countries,
…though faster growth in exports than FDI in develp. countries
Source: UNCTADstat.

18. Trade and FDI trends by decades
Advanced: moderate export growth and decreasing trend of FDI growth
Developing: increasing trend of export growth along FDI growth
Source: UNCTADstat.

19. Share in global FDI stocks
Developing c. gain shares after 2004 (from 21% to 32%)
Source: UNCTADstat.

20. Inward FDI stocks by regions
Advanced: North Am. losing shares in attracting FDI against Europe (54% -->31%)
Developing: Asia losing shares against Lat. Am (67% -->60%)
Source: UNCTADstat.

21. Top-30 FDI locations by decades
Gaining: CHN, BR, CH, SNG, RU, IND, PL
Losing: US, UK, HK, DE, CND, AU, IT
Source: UNCTADstat.

22. FDI trends in EU-NMS Top locations: HU, CZ, PL Latecomers: SK, BG, RO
Source: UNCTADstat.

23. Summary of evidence Increased global openness for trade and FDI
Three waves of export boom
second one in Asia after 1985
China export boom only after 1999
FDI boom
but a real boom only after 1998
Exports and FDI trends highly correlated
Services trade increasing, but slower than goods

24. Effects Good or bad?

25. Effects of globalization
Open economies grow faster
clear evidence
What about the effects on manufacturing and employment?
Advanced vs. developing countries
Other effects
Poverty, unequality
labor standards, child & women labor

26. Open economies grow faster
Average growth rate in open econ. bigger by 3.3 ppt
Source: UNIDO

27. Clear differences between regions
Fastest avg. growth in OECD, followed by Asia and Lat. Am, Africa slow
Source: UNIDO

28. Fastest growing open economies
Asian countries on top
Source: UNIDO

29. Benefits of globalization
Increased choice, lower prices
Greater potential for growth
Increase international economies of scale
Greater employment opportunities
Led to massive increases in wealth for many countries
World poverty decreased

30. World poverty decreased
Source: Worldbank/Poverty gap.

31. … however, mostly effect of China
Source: Worldbank/Poverty gap.

32. Other benefits (1)
Income inequality for the world as a whole is diminishing
Infant mortality has decreased in every developing region of the world
Life expectancy has almost doubled in the developing world since World War II
Hans Rosling: “200 years that changed the world”

33. Other benefits (2)
Between 1950 and 1999, global literacy increased from 52% to 81% of the world.
female literacy as a percentage of male literacy has increased from 59% in 1970 to 80% in 2000.
The percentage of children in the labor force has fallen from 24% in 1960 to 10% in 2000.
Similar increasing trends toward electric power, cars, radios, and telephones per capita, as well as a growing proportion of the population with access to clean water.

34. The flip side Developing countries
Unregulated power of large, multi-national corporations, which damage
the democratic rights of citizens,
the environment, particularly air quality index and rain forests,
as well as national governments sovereignty to determine labor rights
right to unionize for better pay, and better working conditions
women and child labor

35. The flip side Advanced countries (1)
De-industrialization trends
The shift to service work: the low cost of offshore workers enabled corporations to move production abroad.
the laid off unskilled workers are forced into the service sector where wages and benefits are low, but turnover is high.
widening economic gap between skilled and unskilled workers.
The loss of these jobs has also contributed greatly to the decline of the middle class which is a major factor in the increasing economic inequality
Economic instability

36. The flip side Advanced countries (2)
Effects of globalization on wages in US (BLS study, 2001)
in the period , 31% of those who lost a job due to trade were not fully re-employed.
only 36% of the displaced workers were able to find a new job with matching or higher wages,
55% were at best working for 85% of their former wages,
and 25% were working for 70% or less of their former wage
Effects on employment in US (BLS study, 2011)
6 million jobs lost in U.S. manufacturing between 1979 and 2007 (from 19.6 to 13.7 million),
more than half of it after 2001 (trade liberalization with China)

37. The flip side Advanced countries (3)
Global imbalances in trade and capital flows starting in the latter half of the 1990s
These imbalances reflected a chronic lack of saving relative to investment in the US and other industrial countries,
combined with an extraordinary increase in saving relative to investment in many emerging market nations.
In turn,
the increase in excess saving in the emerging countries (resulted from rapid economic growth reduced investment rates, large buildups in foreign exchange reserves, and substantial increases in revenues by exporters of oil and other commodities) …
resulting in large capital inflows for more than a decade in the US and some other advanced
… made the foundations of the current global financial crisis
Ben Bernanke (2009)

38. Global shift Has globalization shifted global political powers?
From US to China?
Chinese Professor Ad: "Now They Work for Us"