1. 1 FTA Seminar 2006 FUTURE OF THE EU UNIVERSITY Preliminary design for a Foresight Exercise Antoine SCHOEN (JRC-IPTS) antoine.schoen@cec.eu.int FTA Seminar 2006 FUTURE OF THE EU UNIVERSITY Preliminary design for a Foresight Exercise Antoine SCHOEN (JRC-IPTS) antoine.schoen@cec.eu.int FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006

2. 2 Exogenous trends Some of the changes that have the mightiest impacting on EU University system are largely exogenous: Demographic changes – university is no more a growth industry. The need for adaptation should be analysed in the context of a “greying” of European societies, A wide reform of the public sector: universities, like hospitals, need to cope with the rise of new public management; Newly reformulated role of scientific and technological research for helping shape a knowledge society.

3. 3 FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006 Five thematic dimensions The analysis of the driving trends which are shaping five complementary – and partially overlapping – folds of the University fabric: Funding patterns and costing structures Human resources Academic outcome Third mission. Governance and strategy

4. 4 FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006 Funding Trends 90’s seem to have been a rather favourable period. Real increase in the total funds of all between 1995 and 2002 and a real increase of revenues per student. Stabilisation of the number of students due to demographics change and flattening of the enrolment rate is a core factor: in the long term universities will lose a key mechanism for their growth Regarding the composition of funding, it can be stated that funding structures are diverse (national, regional budget subsidies; EU, national, regional grants, fees) both across countries and inside countries (“old” and “new” mechanisms co-exist). But the composition of funds did not change dramatically either in the last 10 years.

5. 5 FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006 Human Resources Trends “marketisation” : the competitive to access to scarce resources - researchers, funds and students. managerialisation - academic work organisation is submitted to growing accountability requirements concerning the control of University’s main resources: academic work time. flexibilisation – career paths are getting more diversified. Recruitment criteria is no more exclusively limited to academic visibility. Teaching excellence and knowledge transfer experience are already explicitly proposed as alternative criteria to fill position. internationalisation of higher education makes research more international as well. Attracting foreign students is crucial in order to make academic labour market international. Mobility is therefore a very important issue.

6. 6 FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006 Academic Outcome Trends Differentiation is one strategic option for European universities facing an increasingly competitive environment – an alternative option would be to develop homogenous curriculum and research portfolio all over European regions. Differentiation may be horizontal, alongside the vocational vs. academic dimension of institutions’ main mission. Differentiation may also be vertical, alongside a disciplinary specialisation vs. generalist orientation. A lack of horizontal and vertical differentiation prevails in the EU University.

7. 7 FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006 Third Mission Trends Universities have social and economic roles; they are economic and political forces. They are usually important employers in their region and are stakeholders for urban planning, collective transport. Transfer of knowledge has gained a stronger exposure among the Universities’ missions, adding – without substitution – a new techno-economical dimension in the set of requests for performance. Universities are also providers of services. Teaching outcome – qualified brain workers – is the bulk of University’s third mission.

8. 8 FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006 Governance Trends There is more monitoring of output and fulfilment of duties of academic staff. It is still regarded as difficult into intervene into the core of academic affairs and make them an object of management. Competition within universities, in particular among departments, has increased. Traditional collegial governance is reduced in favour of managerial and thus more hierarchical decision-making also including an increasing number of external stakeholders (through boards).

9. 9 FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006 EU University: a system of systems Two traits of the EU University raise specific difficulties for shaping a Foresight exercise. The “EU University” is a system of systems: Each university should be analysed in the relevant national innovation system (NIS), which should be analysed as a systemic component of the European Research Area. University are therefore bound to evolve in a multiple layer system of governance. European universities face a double layer of public policies: at the Member States and at the EU levels

10. 10 FTA Seminar Seville 28-29 September 2006 Reducing the complexity Focus on institutions. The Foresight exercise will focus analytically on the intra institutional complexity of universities, and simplify the policy makers’ and stake holders’ scene, relying on experts to deal with multi level “embeddedness” of universities in NIS and in ERA. Start working on a set of “ideal types” of universities. In order to reflect the diversity of European universities, the Foresight exercise will use a virtual sample of stylised universities, with well specified characteristics, to develop scenarios according to the identified key trends which are shaping the EU University.