1. Population Change and Demand Forecasting

2. Demand Forecasting Model All People & Services paid for by BCC Baseline of current BCC Practice Current Assessment Practice Current FACS Criteria Current Financial Rules Probability Model can be projected forward ADDITIONAL to Changing Service Delivery Model

3. Population Change By Age Group

4. Overall Impact of Population Change

5. Overall Impact – Younger People

6. Intensity of Need Different Age/Cost profiles based on intensity of service user need Projections take this into account Higher cost growth than SU numbers growth

7. Demographic Impact on “Intensity”

8. Community Services Possible to look at the profile of Community Services, ie excluding residential care and personal/home care Older People/Younger People People With Learning Difficulties or Mental Health Needs LA Centres and External Providers

9. Older People Using Community Services

10. Younger People Using Community Services

11. Younger People - Client Groups

12. Current BCC Funded Setting

13. Summary of Demographic Pressure on Community Services 10 Year picture: 11% Growth in Older Service Users 5% Growth in Younger Service Users Average 7% on existing Day Service Users Inflation Not Included Health & Social Care Transformation not Included