1. Future Public Services 23 April 2014 Nick Page Strategic Director for Children’s Services Item No. 3

2. Purpose of today Salford’s future: Our changing demographics and economy Scale of the various challenges The role of partners Start of discussions on: Potential responses Next steps

3. Salford population - forecasts 2014 to 2020 (1) Total forecast up by 7.3% (17,600 people), –England projected up by 5% –forecast to peak 2017-18 at 4,000 (1.6%) 0-4 years forecast up by 1,100 or 6.2%, –England projected up by 2.3% –until 2016 growth in Salford similar to national projection –after 2016, growth in Salford above national average but falling towards 2020 and beyond 5-9 years forecast up by 2,800 or 16.8% –England projected up by 11.1% –until 2017 rates in Salford much greater than England –after 2017 closer to but still above national average 10-15 years forecast up by 1,900 or 15.6% –England projected up by 8.7% –previously Salford rates less than the national average –Salford rate will start to converge with national rate around 2020

4. Working age (19-64 years) forecast up by 6.9% -England projection 2.9% -rates of growth forecast to converge in 2019 -Salford forecast 8.3% growth in those 30-64 years 65-89 years forecast up by 6.3% -slower than national average, in line with past trends -growth in the number of people aged 65+ forecast to remain lower than national rates, unlike younger age groups 90 years and over forecast up by about 100 a year -in line with national growth rate Salford population - forecasts 2014 to 2020 (2)

5. 4.1% Salford residents unemployed in December 2013 –above Greater Manchester and national rates 16.7% of working age people claim out-of-work benefits. –Salford consistently higher than the national rate of 11.2% –slight changes (0.5% increase 2011 to 2013) 62% of Salford residents have qualifications at level 2 or below –Worse than GM and national rates –75% of all new jobs expected to require qualification at level 2 or above –32% of people working in Salford have qualifications at level 2 or below Minority communities –almost tripled since 2001 to 14.4% –lower than national level but gap is closing –largest BME groups are White Eastern European, Asian and Black African –Jewish community remains largest minority faith; Muslim community has more than doubled Job growth forecast up by 7.6% –England average 5% –Salford rate forecast to be double the national rate from 2017 –Forecast about 1,700 extra jobs a year Health inequalities –linked to deprivation –Salford’s mortality rates remain higher than the England average, –rates in Salford have fallen over recent years but in line with national trends so gaps persist Salford’s population: some characteristics

6. £20.9 bn £22.5 bn Greater Manchester public spending 2008/09 to 2012/13 (cash terms) Source: New Economy

7. £22.9 bn £22.5 bn Greater Manchester public spending 2008/09 to 2012/13 (real terms) Source: New Economy

8. Some other Government policy drivers Open public services and localism Increasing choice – giving people choice over the services they use Empowering local decision making – decentralising power to the lowest appropriate level Opening up public services – opening up provision to a range of providers Giving everyone fair access – supporting the most disadvantaged in fulfilling their potential Increasing accountability – making public service providers accountable to users and taxpayers

9. The social challenge Our role in managing Expectations Behaviour Resilience

10. Some possible considerations Greater Manchester programmes changing the offer joint design and community engagement co-operative city social value delivering differently asset-based approaches

11. GM opportunities Early Years Helping Families and Complex Dependency Transforming Justice Promoting Independence for Older People Health and Social Care Reform GM Growth and Reform Plan http://www.agma.gov.uk/gmca/gm-growth-reform- plan/index.html

12. Reactive / Specialist Early Help Universal Changing the Offer Reactive / Specialist Early Help Universal

13. What else? What examples of co-design and co-delivery do we have that we can build on already? Is there an economic AND service improvement link? What, if we want to, should we do to develop a proposition or series of propositions going forward?