1. 3 YEARS’ OPERATION OF AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM Hyun Cheol Kim, Daewon Byun, DaeGyun Lee, Soontae Kim, and Fong Ngan University of Houston The Institute for Multi-Dimensional Air Quality Studies

2. 2 Outline  UH-IMAQS AQF system (June 2005 – present) - Domain setting - Simulation options - Data archive - Forecast result summary (Ozone & PM 2.5 )  Improved AQF system (Ver. 2.0) - New inputs - GOES SST - New inputs - Forest fire emission (HMS) - Visualization tools (M3data Instant Reviewer in IDL Env. - MIRIE)

3. 3 UH-IMAQS AQF/AQM Framework Meteorological models Emissions models Analysis & Visualization Chemistry Clouds Aerosols Diffusion Advection Chemistry - Transport model USERS Environmetal Data Environmental Data Science Findings Policy Related Information Interface Processors Plume-in-Grid MM5 3.6.1 MCIP 2.3h/3.2h SMOKE 2.1h CMAQ 4.4/4.6 MIRIE (IDL)

4. 4 UH-IMAQS AQF Domains F1, F2 CONUS 36km (133x91) F2 Texas 12km (167x128) F1 Eastern Texas 12 km (89x89) F2 E-Texas 04 km (137x137) F1 Houston-Galveston 04km (83x65)

5. 5 ModelVersionF1F2 MM53.6.1 NAM initialized, USGS24 (36 & 12 km), TFS LULC (4 km), Grell convection, RRTM radiation, UH- modified MRF PBL, uh-modified NOAH LSM MCIP2.3h SMOKE2.1hNEI99 + TEI2000NEI99 + TEI Projected to 2005 CMAQ4.4 CB4(cb4_ae3_aq), GEOS-Chem BC, PPM advection, Multiscale horizontal, Eddy vertical, RADM could Domain CONUS 36km, Eastern Texas 12km, and Houston-Galveston 4km CONUS 36km, Texas 12km, and Texas 4km Simulation2days (6h+49h) Simulation Options

6. 6 UH AQF system (F-A) 1 CPU MCIP 36 km 1 st day SMOKE 36 km 1 st day 1 CPU MCIP 36 km 2 nd day SMOKE 36 km 2 nd day 1 CPU MCIP 12 km 1 st day MCIP 12 km 1 st day SMOKE 12 km 1st day SMOKE 12 km 2 nd day 36 km domain 1 st day 36 km domain 2 nd day 12 km domain 1 st day 12 km domain 2 nd day Download ETA/NAM Forecast MM5 simulations (24 CPUs) 36 km domain 1 st day 36 km domain 2 nd day 12 km domain 1 st day 12 km domain 2 nd day 04 km domain 1 st day 04 km domain 2 nd day Post-Process Visualization Statistics Web Display Data archive CMAQ simulations (24 CPUs) 04 km domain 1 st day 04 km domain 2 nd day 1 CPU MCIP 04 km 1 st day MCIP 04 km 1 st day SMOKE 04 km 1st day SMOKE 04 km 2 nd day Multi CPU Single CPU Data Flow Simulation Flow Starts ~4 pm CST Ends ~ 1 am CST (F1), 6 am CST (F2)

7. 7 Data Transfer and Archive Daily outputs –73G generated –24.6G archived Web display –www.imaqs.uh.edu Data archive system –archive1 : surface data for selected variables (for web display) → stays online –archive2 : all surface data & 3D data for selected variables (SCSI/IDE storage unit) –archive3 : all data from each first day simulation (SCSI/IDE storage unit) F1F2 NAM0.6G MM54.6G6.7G MCIP2.5G5.2G SMOKE6.1G12.5G CMAQ12.5G21G Total26.3G46G plots1949 Animation96 archive10.5G1G archive22.4G3.4G archive37.3G10G Total10.2G14.4G

8. 8 IMAQS Web (http://www.imaqs.uh.edu/)

9. 9 AQF Operation Interrupted… IKE is coming !!! UH-AQF failed to operate 2 times – during Hurricane Rita (Sep. 2005) and Hurricane Ike (Sep. 2008) In both cases, servers were shut down, and resumed in several days

10. 10 Ozone Forecast (2005 ~ 2008) Frequency HOUSTON Offshore prediction is still problematic (PBL, etc)

11. 11 Max Ozone Distribution (June, 2005 ~ Sep.2008) Frequency of max 8h Ozone over 85 ppb High ozone southwest of downtown Houston, especially in northerly wind. Weather patterns play an important role in ozone peak value and location. (See Fong Ngan’s talk tomorrow) Ship channel Circles : CAMS measurements Highest 8h ozone (2005-2008)

12. 12 Highest 8h ozone of year Max Ozone Distribution (2005, 2006) Frequency of max 8h Ozone over 85 ppb 2005 2006 Highest 8h ozone of year Frequency of max 8h Ozone over 85 ppb

13. 13 Highest 8h ozone of yearFrequency of max 8h Ozone over 85 ppb 2007 2008 Highest 8h ozone of year Frequency of max 8h Ozone over 85 ppb Max Ozone Distribution (2007, 2008)

14. 14 Daily Max Ozone in Houston-Galveston domain (1) 2005 RITA AQF Begins Obs (CAMS) After hurricanes, many unexplained peaks observed – possible extra emissions due to shutdown/start up and other upset emissions from industrial facilities.

15. 15 Daily Max Ozone in Houston-Galveston Domain (2) 2006 2007 2000 EI, but too strong wind → peak ozone underestimated 2000 EI, with good wind simulation → peak ozone overestimated

16. 16 2008 Daily Max Ozone in Houston-Galveston domain (3)

17. 17 PM 2.5 (2005 - 2008) No wildfire emission included in NEI99

18. 18 Coming soon … (1) 5km 1.5km 0km MAX in North-South direction MAX in West-East direction Surface layer Enhanced PM by fire emission HMS fire emission

19. 19 Coming soon … (2) Original TSEASFCUpdated TSEASFC SST inside Galveston bay shows clear diurnal variation. GOES SST is implemented to update existing fixed coarse SST field. SST diurnal variation amplitude GOES SST

20. 20 Visualization Tools M3data Instant Reviewer in IDL Env. (MIRIE) Spatial plot BCON Time series

21. 21 M3data Instant Reviewer in IDL Env. (MIRIE) GISS WRF-NMM Wind Profiler Trajectory (RDAS)

22. 22 Summary UH-IMAQS has operated the AQF system since June 2005 in multi domains. Two 48-cpu and several single cpu servers are used for model simulation, web display and data archive for two AQF systems (F1 & F2). Two AQF systems are operating independently with different emission scenarios and in different domains. F1 simulates Eastern Texas 12km domain and Houston-Galveston 4km domain with TEI at 2000 level, and F2 has bigger domains covering Texas (12km) and Dallas/Houston (4km) with 2005 level TEI. F1 results show that daily ozone peak distribution matches well with CAMS measurements. However, simulations underestimated ozone peaks in 2005 and 2006, and overestimated in 2007 and 2008. The 2000 level F1 EI is one possible reason for the overestimation, and overestimated wind speed in 2006 explains the ozone underestimation of the year. New satellite inputs are being implemented in near real time mode for better meteorological inputs (SST) and emission (HMS fire emission). Graphic tools (MIRIE) are developed to visualize modeling outputs and observational data.