1. E FAIRMODE meeting, Antwerp, 11 – 13 April 2013 Air quality review – status quo and future developments Daniela Buzica – Widlowski on behalf of Industrial Emissions, Air quality and Noise Unit DG Environment, European Commission

2. The International Air Quality Policy Framework The UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) and its Protocols (EMEP, Gothenburg, …) The knowledge base (EMEP, WGE, …) … The EU Air Quality Policy Framework The 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution The National Emission Ceilings Directive The Ambient Air Quality Directives National and Local Air Pollution Abatement Measures … What We Have

3. What We Got  Downward trends in (estimated) emissions not fully matched by (measured) air quality improvements: PM, NO2, 03  Significant compliance issues (AAQD, NECD) despite additional time granted in 2008: PM 10, NO 2, …  Almost one third of Europe's city dwellers are exposed to excessive concentrations of airborne particulate matter.  Contribution of transport (road and off-road), small scale combustion installations (including domestic heating), and agriculture continue to be particularly significant (notably for urban air pollution).

4. 2010 2020 CLE 2030 MCE Threat to biodiversity from excess nitrogen input (Natura 2000 areas) Nitrogen input will continue to threaten biodiversity at about two thirds (350,000 km 2 ) of these nature protection zones in the baseline case. MTFR measures could provide protection to another 100,000 km 2 after 2020 An incomplete assessment, as not all countries have reported critical load data for Natura2000 areas % of unprotected ecosystems area Source: IIASA 2012 What We Got

5. Why We Got There Insufficient / ineffective national/local measures Too little too late (often until approaching TEN deadlines), Too much paper, not enough practice, Costs and other barriers (incl. background and competence issues) … Insufficient / ineffective EU source legislation Road Transport (Real World Emissions,…) Non-Road Mobile Machinery (incl. rail and inland vessels) Small scale combustions (incl. domestic heating) Agriculture … Insufficient / ineffective international action UNECE CLRTAP and Protocols (NEC, ELVs, …) IMO Marpol Annex VI (maritime shipping) …

6. College Debate (early 2011) Problems acknowledged and all policy areas re-engaged Renewed implementation impetus Calling for comprehensive review to (re)address the problem (2013) Continued EU Measures to address and resolve non-compliance PM10 and NO2 Time Extension Notifications and Decisions Revision of UNECE CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol Strengthened PM10 enforcement strategies What We Did Recently

7. Amending the Sulphur Content of (Marine) Fuels Directive (IMO) Implementing decisions (Euro-6, IED, Ecodesign, …) Ongoing revisions of Directives and Regulations (NRMM, …) Gain better insights in local air quality management challenges and opportunities (ENV-EEA Urban air quality pilot project) (Re)assessing and renewing support instruments (Life, Cohesion, …) Other (Cars 2020, LCRM, RERM, 7EAP, …) What We Did Recently (cont)

8. A Stakeholder Expert Group has been established as a centrepiece of the consultation process Around 100 experts are participating from:  EU Member States  third countries  international organisations  industry and environment stakeholders  EU bodies/COM services Presentations and documents from the meetings of the Stakeholder Expert Group are publicly available through a dedicated CIRCA library Stakeholder AQ Expert Group

9. Results of the online public consultation on the main options for the review Scenario analyses Emission and environmental impact projections in the period up to 2030 and 2050 Cost-effective emission reduction scenarios for the period up to 2030 Cost – benefit analysis and socio-economic impacts Cost-benefit analysis Socio-economic impacts of possible future pollution control policies Scope for further emission reductions from key sectors Cost-effective reduction by key sectors Shipping report (final draft) Medium-scale combustion New scientific evidence on air pollution and health 9 5th SEG meeting 3 April 2013

10. The Analytical Toolbox AQUILA – network of National Reference Laboratories recommendation to the review FAIRMODE – forum of modellers – recommendation for the review Technical Contracts (DG ENV) Other Platforms "Group of 4" Joint Work Programme (EEA, JRC, CLIMA, RTD) UNECE knowledge centres... WHO Grant agreement DG R&I Research Review

11. the Commission launched the second public consultation at the end of 2012 on policy options A consultation document reviewed key issues Two questionnaires: longer version for stakeholders and experts; shorter version (selected questions) for general public Initial results at the 5 th SEG…. Public Consultation

12. General public: 1934 responses Experts and stakeholders: 371 responses Individuals (experts): 142 Business (associations and enterprises): 114 Government (national, regional and local): 42 NGOs: 61 Research: 3 Other: 9 General public survey: responses received from 25 MS Expert/stakeholder survey: responses received from 21 MS Public Consultation

13. Member States with the highest shares of responses (by respondent category): General publicBusinessGovernmentNGOsExperts Belgium (32.3%)Belgium (27.2%)Germany (28.6%)Belgium (27.8%)Belgium (29.6%) Italy (19.8%)Germany (15.8%)Italy (14.3%)France (16.4%)Germany (18.3%) Netherlands (24.7%)France (11.4%)United Kingdom (11.9%) Germany 16.4%)Italy (18.3%) United Kingdom (5.3%) United Kingdom (9.7%) Austria (9.5%)United Kingdom (9.8%) United Kingdom (7.0%) Public Consultation

14. Baseline (up to 2030 – 2050) June 2012 –Draft TSAP baseline (including first MS comments) presented to SEG July – November 2012 - bilateral consultations with MS experts on GAINS emission calculations (but not on energy scenarios!) End 2012 – Updated baseline, with consultations of DG-ENER/PRIMES with MS energy experts April 2013 – presentation at the 5th SEG of the latest results Scope for additional reduction (up to 2030) Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction and Maximum Control Efforts Scenario up to 2030 Sectorial analysis (road transport, agriculture, small-scale combustion, shipping, non-road mobile machinery) Comparison of NEC assumptions in 2000 with actual developments, reasons for differences Other Compliance with air quality limit values (downscaling methodology) Technical and scientific review (AQUILA, FAIRMODE, WHO…) Governance issues (local/national/EU/international) How We Go About It

15. Objective 1: To ensure compliance with present air quality policies and coherence with the revised Gothenburg Protocol as soon as possible Objective 2: To define interim objectives for further reduction in the exposure of citizens and ecosystems to air pollution beyond 2020 Objective 3: To identify the optimal combination of measures to achieve the interim objectives Objectives of the impact assessment

16. Magnitude of the air quality health and ecosystem problems in Europe Current and projected concentrations/depositions – EEA, IIASA Update of concentration-response relationships – WHO Ecosystem response relationships – EMEP/WGE, CCE Health and environmental outcomes – IIASA, CCE Prospects for compliance with current standards Prospects for 2020, 2025, 2030 – IIASA Implications of modifying limit values Adjustments needed Simplification and focus (gaps (e.g. ecosystems), rationalisation, health relevance) Ambition – IIASA (costs and benefits (including climate change implications), timescales, measures) Flexibility (nature of standards, derogations) – ENV contracts The organisation of the impact assessment

17. Small scale combustion Options to control emissions from plants < 50 MW are being considered further under review clause Art. 72 IED product standard approach cf. Ecodesign Directive Agricultural emissions clear indication of benefits of reducing NH3 emissions from this sector, but largest impact from the spreading of manure – to be investigated further The organisation of the impact assessment

18. Review of: Provision for Air Quality Measurement, Air Quality Modelling, Management Framework, Assessment, and Public Information; and Stakeholder Consultation Support service contract ECORYS consortium – FAIRMODE was the responsibility of Danish Center for Energy and Environment, Aarhus University, Denmark and University of the West of England, Bristol, UK The real challenges of implementing the FAIRMODE recommendation into the revised directive are that the recommendations are not presently in a form where they can be included directly in the directive. any cost assessment will be based on individual interpretations of what is needed to fulfill the recommendations in each member state. Cost analysis of FAIRMODE recommendations

19. The cost assessment is based on the assumption that the FAIRMODE recommendations and the use of models are made mandatory in the directives. 2 methodologies of estimating the cost: bottom up approach and top – down approach Cost analysis of FAIRMODE recommendations

20. Bottom - up approach: Based on results from an information request to the member states carried out in December 2012- January 2013, combined with in depth case studies carried out for Belgium, Croatia and Hungary. 17 countries replied to the information request for each question a much smaller number of member states provided quantitative data, which could be used for the cost assessment. the information request has provided much valuable qualitative information Cost analysis of FAIRMODE recommendations

21. Top – down approach: Based on expert estimates for Denmark calibrated/scaled to all other member states + Croatia based on the EU standard cost model. As base for the cost assessment a set of minimum requirements were defined, concerning establishment of modelling and emission capacities and competences as well as computing facilities in the member states Cost analysis of FAIRMODE recommendations

22. Results: From the top-down approach, it was found that the estimated total cost of implementing the FAIRMODE recommendation from scratch in the whole EU is an annual cost of 4.5 mio. Euros. Since several member states already to some extent fulfil the set of recommendations, the contractor further found that the additional cost compared to the present situation is 1.4 mio. Euros. Cost analysis of FAIRMODE recommendations

23. These estimates rely on the specified setup of minimum requirements, and they represent the cost only to achieve the minimum requirements. The bottom-up results from the information request show that some countries have a much a larger modelling activity than prescribed by the minimum requirements, and consequently they spend a much larger sum on their total modelling activity. Cost analysis of FAIRMODE recommendations

24. IRL Presidency - Informal Environment Ministerial meeting in Dublin: high-level discussion on key policy options for the air review, preceded by preparatory Scientific Conference on Air Pollution 15 April Green Week (4-7 June) EEA Air Status report launch 3rd week Sept Adoption of TSAP review package autumn 2013 High Level UNECE event Geneva in Autumn (Russia, EECCA) Tentative Calendar of Events for 2013 « The Year of Air »

25. We would welcome FAIRMODE's comments on the reporting requirements for modelling (for the time being the experience is limited, coming only from UK deliveries). If anyone (besides the reporting authority) wants to seriously test the reporting of their modelled data according to the data model and schemata, then the EEA can give them permission to deliver their data to CDR and they can share thereby their experience. Questions FAIRMODE

26. Closer links to policy would be useful, bringing together the different communities (researchers, public authorities) as appropriate An example is the IPR guidance; FAIRMODE has produced a number of good guidance documents but increasing the relevance to the reporting of modelling could be useful Also calculation of uncertainty – we encourage you to continue working on DQO to guide MS For the FAIRMODE future

27. Thank you! http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/review_air_policy.htm