1. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams 1 Adelphi Research, Berlin The Impacts of Droughts on Societies: Developing an Interdisciplinary Assessment Approach by Dennis Tänzler 1, Dr. Dörthe Krömker 2 and Frank Eierdanz 2 2 Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel

2. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Aim of this Paper To present an approach to improve our understanding of the vulnerability of societies to drought … …by developing and combining three concepts against the background of different disciplinary viewpoints and in cooperation with other researchers: Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Adelphi Research, Berlin

3. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Susceptibility Environmental Stress The Framework: Security Diagrams No crises event Crises event High probability of crises Low probability of crises

4. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Case Study Regions Andhra Pradesh India Algarve + Alentejo Portugal Volgograd + Saratov Russia

5. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Max(Index 1, 2, 3 ) 1-Fresh water withdrawals, [% of water resources] 3-Deviation of water availability from long time average, [% of 1961-1990] 6-Percentage of area under stress, [% of population in area where withdrawals/ availability >= 0,4] max.=100% min.=0% Definition of limits Index of achievement (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) 1- max.=0% min.=100% max.=100% min.=0% Max(Index 1, 2, 3 ) Fresh water withdrawals [% of water resources] Deviation of water availability from long time average [% of 1961-1990] Percentage of area under stress [% of area with with- drawals/avail. >= 0,4] max.=100% min.=0% (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) 1- (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) (Actual–Minimum) (Maximum–Minimum) 1- Maximum max.=0% min.=100% max.=100% min.=0% I. Water Stress: Max-Index

6. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams II. Susceptibility top-down Approach: “Functional Differentiation of Societies” applied … Environmental Stress Degree of Susceptibility Wealth & Resource Sensitivity Social Integration Political Capacity & Political Willingness PolSus EcoSus SocCuSus

7. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams II. Model for the assessment of susceptibility Relative State Capacity Socio-cultural Susceptibility Tax Revenue Conflict Involve- ment Susceptibility Economic Susceptibility Political Susceptibility Lack of Social Integration Economic Sensitivity Relative State Willingness Lack of Wealth Opport. for Particip. Immuni- zation Degree of Corruption Expendi- tures for Health GDP per Capita Employe es in Agricult. Hydro- power Prod. Size of Agricult.

8. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams II. Results for the Top-Down Approach 0,80,4 0,8 highlow high Andhra Pradesh, India 1991-1995 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Lack of State capacity Lack of Statewill Lack of Wealth Economic Sensitivity Lack of Social Integration Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 1991- 1995 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Lack of State capacity Lack of Statewill Lack of Wealth Economic Sensitivity Lack of Social Integration Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 1991-1995 Lack of 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 State capacity Lack of Statewill Lack of Wealth Economic Sensitivity Lack of Social Integration

9. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams II. Findings from the Top-Down Approach Russian and Indian regions have similary high levels of susceptibility Both regions show high degrees of corruption, Russia especially a high level of conflict involvement, India a lack of wealth Temporal trends (1980-1995) indicate decreasing susceptibility for Portugal and continued level of high susceptibility for Russia and India Applying the model only for recent developments offers the chance to use more precise indicators for some of the dimension The model could also be improved by introducing a systematic measurement of potentials for coping capacity.

10. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams A serious disruption of the functioning of societies causing widespread material or human losses as well as socio-cultural impacts requiring political and social responses. With respect to the occurrence of crisis induced by droughts this means that undesirable outcomes are brought on by environmental stress and extraordinary emergency measures to counteract are required. Undesirable outcomes are typically related to human well-being and to agricultural or energy production whereas extraordinary measures comprise inter alia financial aid, political regulations or some kind of sociocultural adaptation. III. Crisis Definition (based on the media analysis)

11. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Combination of the three dimensions: water stress, susceptibility and crisis (sel.)

12. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams IV. Bottom-Up Approach: „Protection-Capacity Theory“ applied… Costs/Barriers Response Efficacy Self Efficacy Coping Appraisal = Competence Degree of Susceptibility Severity Probability Values Appraisal of Threat = Exposure Perception based appraisal process External Stress

13. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Results for Psychological Perspective 0,3 low 0,7 high 0,4 low Andhra Pradesh, India 2001 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Low capacity for technical measures Low capacity for at place measures Barriers to implement measures Low resources Negative consequences of drought Appraisal of threatened values Dependency ratio Dependency from agriculture Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 2001 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Low capacity for technical measures Low capacity for at place measures Barriers to implement measures Low resources Negative consequences of drought Appraisal of threatened values Dependency ratio Dependency from agriculture Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 2001 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Low capacity for technical measures Low capacity for at place measures Barriers to implement measures Low resources Negative consequences of drought Appraisal of threatened values Dependency ratio Dependency from agriculture

14. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Findings from the Bottom Up Approach The subjective exposure to water stress and the possibilities to deal with it define the degree of susceptibility Approach emphasizes the importance of how specific stakeholder groups perceive increased stress and interact with it From the bottom up perspective the regions of Portugal and Russia show a similar degree of susceptibility. Difference to the top-down results: people in the Russian region perceive a low degree of susceptibility (low exposure & sufficient coping capacities) But: No time series data available, preliminary and non-representative data for regions, validation still to be done

15. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Conclusions Refinement of the concepts of susceptibility, environmental stress, crisis First steps towards an Integrated Assessment – Coupling between approaches from the social & natural sciences Development of methodology to assess susceptibility from different disciplinary viewpoints resulting in a comprehensive and comparative analytical approach Quantification of susceptibility and Consideration of qualitative information Compilation of crisis data via media analysis: testing of the vulnerability estimates More efforts are needed to validate method and findings, especially we need to increase the number of case studies

16. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Acknowledgements: funded by the German Climate Research Programme (Deklim) of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Thanks go also to: Prof. Joseph Alcamo (CERS Kassel); Dr. Richard JT Klein (PIK); Dr.Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik (PIK) and Alexander Carius (Adelphi) as well as to: The Madras School of Economics (Chennai; India) Euronatura (Lisboa, Portugal) and Moscow State University (Russia)

17. Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research, Berlin Security Diagrams Thank you! Contact: taenzler@adelphi-research.de Project Website: www.usf.uni-kassel.de/secdiag