1. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 1 Security Diagrams Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler The Psychological & the Political Approach to Susceptibility Dörthe Krömker

2. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 2 Security Diagrams Agent based approach to susceptibility Entitlement/Access = Environmental, Economic, Infrastructural, Political, Social or Personal Factors Situation Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or non adaptive ExposureCoping Degree of being susceptible Disaster

3. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 3 Security Diagrams Protection-Capacity Theory Costs/Barriers Response Efficacy Self Efficacy Coping Appraisal = Competence Degree of Susceptibility Severity Probability Values Appraisal of Threat = Exposure Perception based appraisal process External Factors

4. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 4 Security Diagrams Neg. conse- quences Pos. conse- quences Appraisal of threat Suscep- tibility Appraisal of competence Agrarian income Not agrarian income Agrarian food source Not agrarian food source Technical measures “At place” measures Barriers Resources Not agrarian resources Agrarian resources Depen- dency ratio Threatened values Depen- dency from agriculture Conse- quences of drought if Response-Efficacy Self-Efficacy Perceived Probability Perceived Severity measured input variable dimension, computed via Fuzzy subsystem Psychological Model

5. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 5 Security Diagrams Results from Psychological Perpective 0,3 low 0,7 high 0,4 low Andhra Pradesh, India 2001 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Low capacity for technical measures Low capacity for at place measures Barriers to implement measures Low resources Negative consequences of drought Appraisal of threatened values Dependency ratio Dependency from agriculture Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 2001 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Low capacity for technical measures Low capacity for at place measures Barriers to implement measures Low resources Negative consequences of drought Appraisal of threatened values Dependency ratio Dependency from agriculture Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 2001 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Low capacity for technical measures Low capacity for at place measures Barriers to implement measures Low resources Negative consequences of drought Appraisal of threatened values Dependency ratio Dependency from agriculture

6. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 6 Security Diagrams Conclusions and Future Steps The subjective exposure and the possibilities to deal with it define the degree of susceptibility What ever the overall situation is like it is important how specific groups of people interact with it The identification of typical subgroups within a society can be achieved Based on that adjusted and theirewith more effective measures can be derived Validation must still be done

7. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 7 Security Diagrams The Political Approach Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler

8. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 8 Security Diagrams “Functional Differentiation of Societies” Political Dimension: Goal Attainment Economic Dimension: Adaptation Social Dimension: Integration Cultural Dimension: Pattern Reproduction System Analytic Approach, based on Talcott Parson

9. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 9 Security Diagrams The “Functional Differentiation of Societies” applied … Environmental Stress Degrees of Susceptibility Wealth & Economic Susceptibility Social Integration Political Capacity & Political Willingness PolSus EcoSus SocCuSus Endangerment of a system‘s subfunctions

10. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 10 Security Diagrams Political Model Susceptibility Tax revenue Political Susceptibility Economic Susceptibility Socio- cultural Susceptibility (as lack of Social Integration) Relative state capacity Relative State willingness Lack of Wealth Economic Sensitivity Conflict involvement - Expen ditures for health GDP per capita Hydro-power production Size of Agriculture Opportunity of Participation Immunization Employees in agriculture Degree of Corruption

11. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 11 Security Diagrams Results for Political Approach 0,80,4 0,8 very highlow very high Andhra Pradesh, India 1991-1995 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Lack of Statecapacity Lack of Statewill Lack of Wealth Economic Sensitivity Lack of Social Integration Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 1991- 1995 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Lack of Statecapacity Lack of Statewill Lack of Wealth Economic Sensitivity Lack of Social Integration Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 1991-1995 Lack of 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 Statecapacity Lack of Statewill Lack of Wealth Economic Sensitivity Lack of Social Integration

12. Dr. Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 12 Security Diagrams Conclusions and Future Steps Basical factors which influence the functioning of a society are identified In this model, political susceptibility of regions depends to a large degree on conflict involvement and degrees of corruption. Their influence on the goal attainment function of the state and on the overall results of the concept might easily be overestimated Our approach to analyze susceptibility in its temporal development hinders us to use more precise indicators for some of the dimension because of a lack of data availability (eg. Gini) Ideally a measurement of pattern maintenance should be added to this approach. However, empirical and theoretical barriers remain concerning this dimension hence needing further elaboration