1. 1 Counterfactual methods – summer school, future work Daniel Mouqué Evaluation Unit, DG REGIO

2. 2 Motivation for the school Indicators ≠ impact, requires « missing counterfactual » Control/comparison group potentially the most rigorous way to establish CF But often data-heavy & techniques can be complicated => need for training

3. 3 The trainers Alberto Martini Gianluca Argentin Enrico Rettore Daniele Bondonio Veronica, Kai, Daniel for policy perspectives

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5. 5

6. 6 The 10 day course Role of technique in context of other tools (monitoring, theory-based evaluation…) Training in the families of methods, eg: –Randomisation/quasi-random –Difference in difference and variants (eg in WP 6c) –Matching (eg PSM – 6c again) –Discontinuity methods (see next slide!) Group exercises throughout

7. 7 Growth rates Obj 1/other, 1995-2006

8. 8 Conclusions of summer school Not applicable everywhere, but where applicable very useful tool. « Easy wins » include: Simple difference-in-difference (« only » needs outcome data on both treated and non-treated) Simple matching (a little more data) Random encouragement Combination with beneficiary surveys Heterogeneity/stratification of results

9. 9 Follow up to summer school Interest in follow up/reunion to see what « alumni » have done in the field Another course next year in May in Hungary? Intro course for generalists (« understanding CF »), follow up course (« performing CF ») ?

10. 10 What next from our side? In tender or in progress: 1A: Grants to large enterprises 1B: All forms of assistance to SMEs (plus beneficiary survey to give depth to insights) 2: Grants for research & innovation, 5=>2 regions 3: Collaboration with NI authorities: all enterprise support Event presenting results (December 2011? Poland)