1. Census 2011 – A Question of Confidentiality Statistical Disclosure control for the 2011 Census Carole Abrahams ONS Methodology BSPS – York, September 2011

2. Overview Brief introduction to SDC Census outputs & confidentiality Record swapping Data utility 2001 vs 2011 Communal Establishments Further work

3. Introduction to SDC (1) - What is disclosure risk? There is a disclosure risk when information is published that could allow an intruder to indicate the identity or particulars of: an individual a household or family a business or another statistical unit

4. 4 Identification disclosure Attribute disclosure (AD) Group disclosure Introduction to SDC (2) - Examples of disclosure risk

5. Introduction to SDC (3) - Statistical Disclosure Control Statistical Disclosure Control (SDC) involves either: introducing sufficient ambiguity/damage into, or reducing level of detail, of published statistics, so that the risk of disclosing confidential information is reduced to an acceptable level and/or: controlling access to data

6. Census outputs and confidentiality Disclosure control of Census outputs required by law Pledge on Census forms Visible variables –use to identify individual/family/household –find out something new about them –Data Environment Analysis Service (DEAS) Sensitive variables –defined by DPA

7. Risk – Utility balance Disclosure Risk: Information about confidential units Data Utility: Information about legitimate items Original Data No data Released Data Maximum Tolerable Risk High Low

8. SDC for Census 2001 Random record swapping Lack of harmonisation and late changes to agreed methodology SCA applied in E, W, NI, not in Scotland SCA protected individual tables, but some remaining risk through differencing Effect on utility at low geographies and in creating bespoke geographies

9. 9 104 Delivery Groups (DGs) in England & Wales ≈ 4 LADs in a DG ≈ 20 MSOAs in an LAD ≈ 20 OAs in an MSOA Census Geography DG LAD MSOA OA

10. SDC for Census 2011 RsG agreement November 2006 –Small cell counts as long as ‘sufficient uncertainty’ –Main risk attribute disclosure Targeted record swapping –Targeted to ‘risky’ records –Risk looks at particular variables, takes account of geography –Risk scores for individuals combined to household score –Households swapped –Households swapped only as far as their risk is considered ‘high’ –Imputation considered as part protection

11. Targeted swapping (1) Households − Risk score on uniqueness/rarity of small number of key variables at different geographies Probability −inversely related to area imputation rate −positively related to household risk score Matching −look for matches only as far as is necessary −Match on household size, and other variables if possible

12. Targeted swapping – an example of how it works (1) Risky within OA Risky within MSOA Risky within LA Swap with h’hold in another OA in MSOA Swap with h’hold in another MSOA in LA Swap with h’hold in another LA within delivery group Household is in area that has high response rate, therefore low imputation. So area has higher than average swapping rate

13. Targeted swapping – an example of how it works (2) Household found to be risky within OA and is selected for swapping. Only swapped between OAs in the same MSOA. Households are matched on: Adults = 2 Children = 1 Pets = 2

14. Swapping & Sufficient uncertainty Level of swapping in an area determined by level of non-response / imputation Swapping lower where more imputed records Sufficient uncertainty has been assessed by two factors: –Percentage of real attribute disclosures (ADs) protected by imputation & swapping –Percentage of apparent ADs created

15. Effect of targeted swapping on data utility LLTI by OALLTI by MSOA Typical effect of swapping on numbers of people with LLTI Based on 2001 data Utility higher at MSOA than at OA

16. Summary of SDC methodology Main effect on utility will be for small cells at low level geographies Tables will be consistent and additive Will use minimum average cell size All univariate residence-based tables at OA publishable There will be no small cell adjustment Tables will contain apparent small cells and apparent ADs, but an intruder can’t find out something about an individual case with a “high degree of confidence”

17. 17 Communal establishments For client residents: For staff residents:

18. Further work Minority population outputs. Flow data Microdata Workplace tables Commissioned tables Contact: SDC queries@ons.gov.uk